POST TROPICAL WX WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES HERE

[TexasStooge]

Tropical Storm Watch until further notice

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012005
1500Z WED MAY 18 2005
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR...AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  93.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  93.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  93.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 11.6N  92.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 12.6N  91.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.6N  89.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.0N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N  73.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N  93.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART

[Coredesat]

El Salvador's Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch:

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 182027
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005
2100Z WED MAY 18 2005

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS UPGRADED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ALL OF EL SALVADOR.

AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING
THE GULFO DE FONSECA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE PACIFIC
COAST OF GUATEMALA.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 92.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 92.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.6N 91.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.7N 90.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.2N 88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.8N 87.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 92.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART

[dixiebreeze]

Are ALL posts involving advisories, watches, forecasts, etc., supposed to be posted here? That doesn't seem to be the case, so thought I would ask before I accidentially posted the wrong thing. Thank you.

[cycloneye]

Are ALL posts involving advisories, watches, forecasts, etc., supposed to be posted here? That doesn't seem to be the case, so thought I would ask before I accidentially posted the wrong thing. Thank you.

Yes dixie advisories,watches and warnings.I am a moderator but I admit that I violated the policy posting advisorys earlier today:) But from now on I will post here the advisorys,watches and warnings.

[dixiebreeze]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 19 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN CENTERED NEAR 11.2N 92.0W AT 19/0300 UTC
MOVING ENE 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 4-6 HOURS AND HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED MAINLY IN THE E SEMICIRCLE WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. A CLUSTER OF
STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER IN THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS...ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF A NEW BAND FORMING IN
THE SE QUADRANT. ADRIAN STILL HAS A GOOD OVERALL STRUCTURE...
ALTHOUGH THE W SIDE OF THE STORM IS NOT AS STRONG DUE TO
POSSIBLE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. ADRIAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND CONTINUE MOVING NE...MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE FIRST OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ADRIAN ARE
SPREADING OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND ARE ABOUT 80 NM OFF THE
EL SALVADOR COAST. THESE BANDS WILL SPREAD OVER EL SALVADOR LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS ARE LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS AS ADRIAN APPROACHES.

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 5:00 am PDT on May 19, 2005



...Adrian moving a little faster toward Central America...

a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the coast of El Salvador. A tropical storm watch remains in effect
for the Pacific coast of Guatemala and the Pacific coast of
Honduras...including the golfo de fonseca.

Interests elsewhere in Central America should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am PDT...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 12.2 north...longitude 91.3 west or about 175
miles...285 km...southwest of San Salvador El Salvador.

Adrian is now moving toward the northeast near 9 mph...14 km/hr...
and a general northeastward motion with some increase in forward
speed is likely over the next 24 hours. The forecast track brings
the center of Adrian very near the coast within the warning area by
late tonight or early Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Adrian is expected to be near hurricane strength at the time of
landfall. A United States Air Force reconnaissance plane will fly
into Adrian later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in
association with Adrian. These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is
possible near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Repeating the 5 am PDT position...12.2 N... 91.3 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
8 am PDT.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on May 19, 2005



...Adrian a little stronger...outer rainbands already reaching the
coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala...
At 8 am PDT...1500z...the government of Guatemala has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the Pacific coast
of Guatemala from sipacate eastward to the Guatemala-El Salvador
border. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in
effect from sipacate Guatemala to the El Salvador-Honduras border.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Honduras...including the golfo de fonseca...and for Guatemala from
sipacate westward to the Guatemala-Mexico border.

Interests elsewhere in Central America should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 am PDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 12.5 north... longitude 90.9 west or about
140 miles... 225 km... southwest of San Salvador El Salvador.

Adrian is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and a general northeastward motion...with some increase in forward
speed...is likely over the next 24 hours. On this track...the
center of Adrian will be very near the coast within the warning
area later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph...100
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
possible before landfall...and Adrian could be near hurricane
strength at the time of landfall. A United States Air Force
reconnaissance plane will fly into Adrian later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
...110 km from the center...mainly to the north and east of the
center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in
association with Adrian. These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is
possible near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Repeating the 8 am PDT position...12.5 N... 90.9 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 11 am PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 2 PM
PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Adrian Forecast/Advisory Number 8


Statement as of 15:00Z on May 19, 2005



at 8 am PDT...1500z...the government of Guatemala has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the Pacific coast
of Guatemala from sipacate eastward to the Guatemala-El Salvador
border. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in
effect from sipacate Guatemala to the El Salvador-Honduras border.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Honduras...including the golfo de fonseca...and for Guatemala from
sipacate westward to the Guatemala-Mexico border.

Interests elsewhere in Central America should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

Tropical storm center located near 12.5n 90.9w at 19/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 45 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 994 mb
Max sustained winds 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt.
50 kt....... 20ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt....... 60ne 60se 30sw 30nw.
12 ft seas.. 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 12.5n 90.9w at 19/1500z
at 19/1200z center was located near 12.2n 91.2w

forecast valid 20/0000z 13.4n 89.9w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 20/1200z 14.6n 88.3w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 21/0000z 16.0n 86.5w...over water
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 21/1200z 17.6n 84.4w
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 22/1200z 21.0n 79.0w
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 23/1200z 25.0n 72.0w...extratropical
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Outlook valid 24/1200z 29.0n 64.0w...extratropical
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 12.5n 90.9w

next advisory at 19/2100z

forecaster Knabb/Avila



The latest forecast at 1500 z dont has Adrian as a hurricane at landfall.

[cycloneye]

Discussion Advisory #8

Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on May 19, 2005



the inner core of Adrian is more organized than six hours ago. Deep
convection is wrapping more completely around the center... and
Dvorak data T numbers are now 3.5 from TAFB and SAB.
Additionally...a 1238z SSMI pass reveals inner core banding. The
initial intensity is increased to 55 knots. Some further
intensification could occur before landfall in Central America...as
sea surface temperatures are near 30 celsius and vertical shear
does not appear to be strong enough to halt intensification.
Adrian is now moving directly toward the northeast...045/8. Mainly
due to the recent motion...the official forecast is adjusted
slightly to the right of the previous advisory through about 48
hours. The track forecast reasoning otherwise remains essentially
the same. A mid- to upper- level trough to the north of the system
is expected to steadily accelerate Adrian to the northeast. If it
remains a tropical cyclone after crossing Central America...it is
expected to become extratropical after moving north of the Greater
Antilles on days 4 and 5.
Again it should be emphasized that the biggest threat from Adrian is
the potential for torrential rainfall...which will likely produce
flash flooding and potentially devastating mud slides over the
mountainous terrian of Central America.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/1500z 12.5n 90.9w 55 kt
12hr VT 20/0000z 13.4n 89.9w 60 kt
24hr VT 20/1200z 14.6n 88.3w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 21/0000z 16.0n 86.5w 30 kt...over water
48hr VT 21/1200z 17.6n 84.4w 25 kt
72hr VT 22/1200z 21.0n 79.0w 25 kt
96hr VT 23/1200z 25.0n 72.0w 25 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 24/1200z 29.0n 64.0w 25 kt...extratropical

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

at 11 am PDT...1800z...the governments of Guatemala and El Salvador
have upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning to a Hurricane Warning for
the Pacific coast of Guatemala from sipacate eastward to the El
Salvador-Honduras border.

[Brent]

Hurricane Adrian Special Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 am PDT on May 19, 2005

...Air Force plane indicates that Adrian is a hurricane...

At 11 am PDT...1800z...the governments of Guatemala and El Salvador
have upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning to a Hurricane Warning for
the Pacific coast of Guatemala from sipacate eastward to the El
Salvador-Honduras border.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Honduras...including the golfo de fonseca...and for Guatemala from
sipacate westward to the Guatemala-Mexico border.

Interests elsewhere in Central America should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 am PDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Adrian was located
near latitude 12.6 north... longitude 90.6 west or about 120
miles... 195 km... southwest of San Salvador El Salvador.

Adrian is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and a
general northeastward motion...with some increase in forward
speed...is likely over the next 24 hours. On this track...the
center of Adrian will be very near the coast within the warning
area later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph...120
km/hr...with higher gusts. Adrian is a category one hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some additional
strengthening is possible before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles...110 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance
plane was 982 mb...29.00 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in
association with Adrian. These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and
to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Repeating the 11 am PDT position...12.6 N... 90.6 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 982 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 11 am PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 2 PM
PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 191749
TCDEP1
HURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPGRADE ADRIAN TO A HURRICANE AND TO
UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING. NO
CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ARE INDICATED.

IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND
POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1800Z 12.6N 90.6W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 13.4N 89.9W 70 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 14.6N 88.3W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.6N 84.4W 25 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 24/1200Z 29.0N 64.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Adrian Forecast/Advisory Number 10


Statement as of 21:00Z on May 19, 2005



a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Guatemala from sipacate eastward along the El Salvador coast to the
El Salvador-Honduras border.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Honduras...including the golfo de fonseca...and for the Pacific
coast of Guatemala from sipacate westward to the Guatemala-Mexico
border.

Interests elsewhere in Central America should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

Hurricane center located near 12.9n 90.3w at 19/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northeast or 45 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 983 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt.
64 kt....... 15ne 10se 10sw 10nw.
50 kt....... 30ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 60ne 60se 60sw 30nw.
12 ft seas..100ne 100se 60sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 12.9n 90.3w at 19/2100z
at 19/1800z center was located near 12.6n 90.6w

forecast valid 20/0600z 13.8n 89.3w...inland
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 20ne 40se 40sw 20nw.

Forecast valid 20/1800z 15.2n 87.6w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 21/0600z 16.8n 85.6w...over water
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 21/1800z 18.4n 83.2w
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Forecast valid 22/1800z 22.0n 77.0w
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 23/1800z 25.0n 70.0w...extratropical
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Outlook valid 24/1800z...absorbed by frontal zone

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 12.9n 90.3w

next advisory at 20/0300z





75 kts at 5 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Adrian Advisory Number 10


Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on May 19, 2005



...Adrian heading for Central America with 85 mph winds...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Guatemala from sipacate eastward along the El Salvador coast to the
El Salvador-Honduras border.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Honduras...including the golfo de fonseca...and for the Pacific
coast of Guatemala from sipacate westward to the Guatemala-Mexico
border.

Interests elsewhere in Central America should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Adrian was located
near latitude 12.9 north... longitude 90.3 west or about 90
miles... 150 km... southwest of San Salvador El Salvador.

Adrian is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and a
general northeastward motion...with some increase in forward
speed...is likely over the next 24 hours. On this track...the
center of Adrian will reach the coast within the warning area later
tonight.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with
higher gusts...in a small area just north of the center. Adrian is
a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Stronger
winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated terrain.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles...110 km.

The minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance plane was
983 mb...29.03 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in
association with Adrian. These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and
to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Repeating the 2 PM PDT position...12.9 N... 90.3 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 85 mph. Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 5 PM PDT followed by the next complete advisory at 8 PM
PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila




85 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Adrian Discussion Number 10


Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on May 19, 2005



Adrian intensified into a hurricane earlier today...as indicated by
reports from the United States Air Force reconnaissance plane which
penetrated the center at 1655z and 1830z. Estimates of the minimum
central pressure...extrapolated from the 850 mb flight level...were
982 mb and 984 mb. Airborne radar depicted a circular eye with 10
nm diameter... and the maximum flight level wind speed was 92 kt
just north of the center. These data correspond to surface winds
of 75 kt...which is the basis for the initial intensity in this
advisory. Since the aircraft departed the system...the convective
pattern has become more elongated. However...Adrian is still
likely to reach the central American coast as a hurricane.
Initial motion is toward the northeast at about 8 knots. Even
though the center of Adrian is expected to gradually accelerate
toward the northeast...it will spend many hours over the rugged
terrain of Central America. If a weakened Adrian emerges into the
Caribbean Sea...increasingly strong vertical wind shear
will be prohibitive for re-intensification. Only if the system
maintains tropical cyclone status throughout its passage over land
would it retain the name Adrian in the Atlantic Basin. This
possibility is reflected in the official forecast for Adrian to be
a tropical depression through 72 hours...followed by extratropical
transition.

It should be emphasized that the biggest threat from Adrian is
torrential rainfall...which will likely produce flash flooding and
potentially devastating mud slides over the mountainous terrian of
Central America.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/2100z 12.9n 90.3w 75 kt
12hr VT 20/0600z 13.8n 89.3w 45 kt...inland
24hr VT 20/1800z 15.2n 87.6w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 21/0600z 16.8n 85.6w 30 kt...over water
48hr VT 21/1800z 18.4n 83.2w 25 kt
72hr VT 22/1800z 22.0n 77.0w 25 kt
96hr VT 23/1800z 25.0n 70.0w 20 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 24/1800z...absorbed by frontal zone

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Adrian Intermediate Advisory Number 10a


Statement as of 5:00 PM PDT on May 19, 2005



...Adrian approaching the coast of Central America...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Guatemala from sipacate eastward along the El Salvador coast to the
El Salvador-Honduras border.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Pacific coast of
Honduras...including the golfo de fonseca...and for the Pacific
coast of Guatemala from sipacate westward to the Guatemala-Mexico
border.

Interests elsewhere in Central America should closely monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 PM PDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Adrian was located
near latitude 13.1 north... longitude 90.1 west or about 75
miles... 125 km... southwest of San Salvador El Salvador...and about
35 miles... 60 km... south-southwest of acajutla on the coast of El
Salvador.

Adrian is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and a
general northeastward motion...with some increase in forward
speed...is likely over the next 24 hours. On this track...the
center of Adrian will reach the coast within the warning area later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...140 km/hr...with
higher gusts...in a small area near the center. Adrian is
a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Stronger
winds...especially in gusts...are likely over elevated terrain.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles...110 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb...29.09 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in
association with Adrian. These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and
to the east of where the center makes landfall.

Repeating the 5 PM PDT position...13.1 N... 90.1 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph. Minimum central pressure... 985 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
8 PM PDT.

Forecaster Pasch






Winds haved decreased to 80 mph.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

...CENTER OF HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST
OF GUATEMALA EAST OF SIPICATE TO THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR...AND
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SIPICATE WESTWARD TO THE
GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR VERY NEAR THE
COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTHWEST OF
SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ADRIAN BE MOVING INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AND OVER HONDURAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.
ADRIAN WILL WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HAM RADIO REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 81 MPH...130 KM/HR...AT COMALAPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 8 PM PDT POSITION...13.4 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 11 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 2 AM
PDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

HAM RADIO REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 81 MPH...130 KM/HR...AT COMALAPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES... 25 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR

[HurricaneBill]

Is Adrian a midget cyclone or just very small?