Everyone is asking themselves that if Adrian crosses Central America, will it retain its name or becomes Arlene. Most people say it will retain its name but I have found prove that it will become Arlene, or at least TD 1.
Examples:
a. Synoptic History
Hurricane Cesar moved westward over Central America for about 18 hours and emerged into the Pacific with tropical storm strength. It was then designated Tropical Storm Douglas. Once centered over water, the tropical cyclone intensified rapidly and in about 12 hours reached hurricane status.
[img]ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/pacific/ep1988/miriam/prenhc/prelim01.gif[/img]
If Adrian Crosses intact, Arlene is borned!
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DoctorHurricane2003
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DoctorHurricane2003
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001
...IRIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES...75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXTLA GUTIERREZ MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IRIS NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
IRIS MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO...AND IRIS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...16.1 N... 92.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON IRIS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE
PACIFIC. IF SUCH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE SYSTEM WILL RETAIN
THE NAME IRIS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2001
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED A
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH BOTH LOOK SOMEWHAT
RAGGED AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. ADVISORIES ARE
THUS INITIATED ON A 30 KT DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/14. LIMITED GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TODAY
DUE TO COMPUTER MAINTENANCE AT NCEP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SHOWS RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WITH A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
NORTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NOGAPS
INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A NEW STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE U.S. TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT
FORECAST THE TROUGH TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO RECURVE THE CYCLONE.
THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWED BY A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE RIDGE STARTS
TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE
72 HR POINT WILL SHOW A WESTWARD TURN.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NOGAPS
FORECASTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AFTER
12-24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
AFTER 12 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFDL CALLS FOR NO
STRENGTHENING...A SURPRISING LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN LIGHT OF THE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE MODEL.
AFTER EXTENSIVE POST-ANALYSIS...AND NO SMALL AMOUNT OF DEBATE...IT
WAS DECIDED THAT THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT THE CONTINUATION OF ATLANTIC
HURRICANE IRIS. SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
YESTERDAY SUGGEST THAT THIS CENTER...WHILE PART OF THE OVERALL
WEATHER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IRIS...WAS FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC
BEFORE THE CENTER OF IRIS LOST ITS IDENTITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THUS...THE SYSTEM IS CALLED TD FIFTEEN-E INSTEAD OF TD IRIS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 14.0N 101.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 11/0600Z 14.0N 103.2W 30 KTS
24HR VT 11/1800Z 14.5N 105.4W 35 KTS
36HR VT 12/0600Z 15.0N 107.2W 40 KTS
48HR VT 12/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 112.5W 50 KTS
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001
...IRIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES...75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXTLA GUTIERREZ MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IRIS NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH... 55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
IRIS MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO...AND IRIS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...16.1 N... 92.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON IRIS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE
PACIFIC. IF SUCH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE SYSTEM WILL RETAIN
THE NAME IRIS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2001
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED A
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH BOTH LOOK SOMEWHAT
RAGGED AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. ADVISORIES ARE
THUS INITIATED ON A 30 KT DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/14. LIMITED GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TODAY
DUE TO COMPUTER MAINTENANCE AT NCEP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SHOWS RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WITH A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
NORTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NOGAPS
INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A NEW STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE U.S. TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT
FORECAST THE TROUGH TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO RECURVE THE CYCLONE.
THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWED BY A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE RIDGE STARTS
TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE
72 HR POINT WILL SHOW A WESTWARD TURN.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NOGAPS
FORECASTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AFTER
12-24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
AFTER 12 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFDL CALLS FOR NO
STRENGTHENING...A SURPRISING LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN LIGHT OF THE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE MODEL.
AFTER EXTENSIVE POST-ANALYSIS...AND NO SMALL AMOUNT OF DEBATE...IT
WAS DECIDED THAT THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT THE CONTINUATION OF ATLANTIC
HURRICANE IRIS. SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
YESTERDAY SUGGEST THAT THIS CENTER...WHILE PART OF THE OVERALL
WEATHER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IRIS...WAS FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC
BEFORE THE CENTER OF IRIS LOST ITS IDENTITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THUS...THE SYSTEM IS CALLED TD FIFTEEN-E INSTEAD OF TD IRIS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/2100Z 14.0N 101.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 11/0600Z 14.0N 103.2W 30 KTS
24HR VT 11/1800Z 14.5N 105.4W 35 KTS
36HR VT 12/0600Z 15.0N 107.2W 40 KTS
48HR VT 12/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 112.5W 50 KTS
NNNN
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