Question for the experts

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Rainband

Question for the experts

#1 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 8:11 pm

What is the most reliable model used for forecasting tropical system development? I am still learning and only go by information I find on the net. Earlier today I posted a model for shear and it was unreliable :oops: :oops: I want to know from your experience what is the best model or models to use. I appreciate it..thank you

Sincerely
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 26, 2003 8:31 pm

From what I had seen in past years the AVN or GFS now,NOGAPS,UKMET and GFDL are the best tools for forecasting from the models but that is my view of the best models as I can see other people saying other models but all of them are used as a guidance.
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#3 Postby mf_dolphin » Mon May 26, 2003 8:38 pm

Johnathan, I think some models do better with storms in different parts of the hurricane zone. The GFDL always seems to have a fairly good track forecast but has a tendency to show phantom storms.
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon May 26, 2003 8:41 pm

The best models are the ones that are typically initialized correctly. The GFS you posted seems to have misrepresented where favorable conditions would form by about 300 miles. The ones that are properly initialized are the best of models
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ColdFront77

#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon May 26, 2003 8:43 pm

Absolutely, I remember the GFDL model, last year. Talk about phantom storms! -- Lily and Isidore were rather intense at least for a period of their existance.
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Rainband

#6 Postby Rainband » Mon May 26, 2003 8:43 pm

Thanks guys!!! :wink:
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Mon May 26, 2003 10:50 pm

There were a lot of changes done to the GFDL for this season if I'm not mistaken ...

One of the tendencies with the GFDL is on strength. The model has a tendency to really intensify storms, sometimes without reason ...
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#8 Postby OtherHD » Mon May 26, 2003 11:02 pm

GFDL is a double edged sword....it's one of the best track predictors, but it sucks at intensity. We'll see come this year though..... :lol:
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