Disturbance In The Southern Caribbean

#1 Postby **TampaFl** » Fri May 06, 2005 3:58 pm

Nice little disturbance in the extreme Southern Caribbean moving west. It has a little "twist" to it :eek:

. It appears it will cross Panama and move into the Pacific. Could this be the first Pacific tropical system of the year? :eek:

Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Robert 8-)

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri May 06, 2005 4:08 pm

Yea I was seeing that as well. East Pac potential...but as we get into June and July, I would not be surprised to see Arlene come out of something like that.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #3 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri May 06, 2005 4:10 pm

Nice mid level arc in the clouds. I think it has some chance on the Pacific side.

x-y-no · #4 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri May 06, 2005 4:10 pm

No kidding!

Could be out first EPAC system of the season ...

Could it be time for a BEAR WATCH? :lol:

#5 Postby **TampaFl** » Fri May 06, 2005 4:14 pm

Derek Ortt · #6 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri May 06, 2005 4:58 pm

just a broad area of low-pressure as the best that I can tell after looking at highly zoomed in sat imagery. Something to watch, but I wouldnt put too much stock in it

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri May 06, 2005 10:38 pm

"ADRIAN" FIRST CHANCE.

James · #8 Postby **James** » Sat May 07, 2005 2:29 am

Perhaps so. Could it survive the passage over Nicaragua do you think?

James · #9 Postby **James** » Sat May 07, 2005 3:50 am

It does seem to be flaring up a bit:

#10 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat May 07, 2005 6:08 am

Agree with you James. Has really flared up over the last several hours. It also appears to have slowed quite a bit and not moved into the Pacific by now as I earlier thought. Lets keep an eye on it.

Robert 8-)

.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 07, 2005 7:48 am

If it sits there for 3 days then a second look will be in order but right now it's not anything that opens eyebrows at this time.

#12 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 07, 2005 8:33 am

I was thinking that if this disturbance can hold in place to wait for the tropical wave, maybe, the tropical wave could enhance the formation of a low pressure at the surface. Then, we would be talking about serious possibilities for development in the Caribbean Sea or Eastern Pacific Ocean. Of course, we would need the wind shear to help.

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 07, 2005 8:40 am

The system continues to fire up, but no visible circulation can be seen.

#14 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat May 07, 2005 10:48 am

Between crossing the isthmus and the shear in that area, as persistent as this system has been I don't see much chance of anything coming of it.

#15 Postby **wxman57** » Sat May 07, 2005 11:27 am

Looks like a tropical wave interacting with a weak frontal boundary. GFS indicates general low pressure there for the next few weeks, with additional waves moving across. The current wave's axis is moving past the upper trof now. Shear is too strong for development today. Don't think this system will be "Arlene", but it's an area to watch in the coming weeks for possible early-season development.

krysof · #16 Postby **krysof** » Sat May 07, 2005 12:32 pm

would it develop if it was July?

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat May 07, 2005 4:43 pm

krysof wrote:would it develop if it was July?

It would depend mostly on the wind shear, on how light or strong it is.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #18 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat May 07, 2005 5:02 pm

This is just a broad overall area of low pressure. Plus with the heavy shear don't looks for development. A slight chance over the eastern Pacific.

#19 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 08, 2005 9:19 am

Persistent disturbance, but for now, nothing more.

Disturbance In The Southern Caribbean

Disturbance In The Southern Caribbean

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