Hurricane Alley May 05 out

[Javlin]

Alll the forcast seem to be holding the line for the upcoming season.With what Luis put out from the POMA not quite as strong as before and NOAA neutral stance things seem to be shaping up.We now need NOA and some MEI # now maybe.
http://hurricanealley.net/images/LANDFALLMAY05.gif
http://hurricanealley.net/hafrcstmthd.htm#Variables

[James]

Hmmm, interesting...

[Javlin]

Yea looking at the Map if they are half way right the Alley expects some ridging to take place.The E coast is low probabality while the YUC,TX,and the NGOM are high.This equates to me anyway long trackers and an active MDR region.

[James]

Yes, that seems to be what they are getting at.

[HURAKAN]

Not a surprise, but interesting, if the map is right, the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea will fuel easily any storm that goes through.

[cycloneye]

Take a look at the areas they they have as the ones where the systems will form.

[James]

Clearly anticipating a busy Cape Verde season, then?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like long week long hurricanes. I say lets roll!!!

[cycloneye]

Clearly anticipating a busy Cape Verde season, then?

Yes with the very warm waters at the MDR the Cape verde season will be active and of course that does not bold well for the islands.The only saving grace for the Caribbean would be if the Azores high and Bermuda high are weak and if that is the case those CV storms can go fishing but it is very early to say for sure how both Highs will be at the peak of the season.

[Steve]

Interesting. I was watching Bastardi for the first time in about 3 weeks yesterday and he overlaid the April precipitation for all years with a major landfalling gulf storm and compared it to this year. In those years, you had a much rainier mid-section of the nation, a generally drier Texas and a very wet NW FL Panhandle. He didn't say one way or the other whether he thought the Gulf would be prime (had previously indicated that a focus would be on FL), and the maps didn't make that much sense to me outside of the dry TX and wet FL.

The Alley is pretty good though.

Steve

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like I am in the red area.. Lets go!

[EDR1222]

Not trying to knock anyones forecast, but it seems unusual that The Outer Banks of NC would be anything less then a moderate probability on any given year.

Any thoughts?

[Scorpion]

That map looks very ominous. I wonder what facts they are basing it off of. It doesn't seem that they can forecast this kind of thing so far in advance.

[BayouVenteux]

That map looks very ominous. I wonder what facts they are basing it off of. It doesn't seem that they can forecast this kind of thing so far in advance.

From what I've been able to ascertain over the last couple of years of checking the hurricanealley.net site, the probabilities are somehow calculated based upon the general storm landfall locations drawn from the analog years which best reflect the current conditions (as they relate to the determining seasonal variables) for that particular update month.

My only wish is that they would leave the original forecasts up from the previous year so as not to rely solely on verification maps created postseason. It lessens the chances of any impression of the appearance of revisionist history. I'm by no means saying that they engage in it...everything that I've read about the guys who run the site has been very positive, and I enjoy their reading the results of their efforts.

IMHO, preseason geographic landfall forecasts make for an interesting "hot stove" topic before the season gets underway, but as reliable tools, well, let's just say it's an inexact science still in its infancy.

[hcane]

Your statement concerning verification is "right on". That is why the monthly forecasts are being catalogued on separate pages this year. That way, each forecast can be verified after the season is complete. If you will notice, a major change is to include the previous month's forecast links on each succeeding month.
There is an ongoing process for "re-loading" the graphics from the past seasons. The major hurdle is that there was such a hurried move to new servers and hosts last year that a considerable number of the early pages are still being recovered.
As to "revisionism", you are correct as well. The forecasts have been made public since 2002. Every attempt has been made to make sure that they were "viewable" as early as possible so as to avoid just that situation.
There is currently a project underway to "back verify" the model that is being used. Those results will be posted as soon as they are available.
As to the "infancy" of the process, again you hit the nail on the head. This is te 4th year of the specific location for landfall forecasts. Undoubtly, 2004 was a unique situation, 100% is well beyond reasonable expectations. The prior year's of 80% and 70% were actually better than was expected for a starting point. It does show though that the model, which has been "tweaked" this year again, has some merit. It just isn't perfect yet. But, there is every hope that it can continue to be improved enough in the coming years that 85% to 90% will become the norm.
Remember, the forecast is NOT for any specific strom, but for impact by A storm.

[CA _Tracker]

I would bump the possibility for SC and NC up a little bit if drying conditions continue for that area.

[BayouVenteux]

I would bump the possibility for SC and NC up a little bit if drying conditions continue for that area.

Looks like the drying conditions are temporarily on hold in the eastern 1/2 of North Carolina today. That developing Nor'easter appears to be dumping some decent widespread rain, at least on radar.

[Javlin]

I would bump the possibility for SC and NC up a little bit if drying conditions continue for that area.

I do not think it is the lack of rainfall it is ridging in the Atlantic they are expecting.

[OuterBanker]

I'll take it. For once we are in the low probability area. Thanks.

[x-y-no]

I have a hard time seeing how the northern Bahamas are at high risk but the Carolinas are at low risk. Something odd about that.

Jan