SLOSH MODEL

[Rainband]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh.shtml :o :o :o

[cycloneye]

That is very important to know that there is a model that projects how the storm surge might be to keep the people informed about what to expect in terms of the dangerous storm surge.

Thanks rainband for sharing that link that is very important.

[Rainband]

I thought it might help!..With the complacency scale.. I was amazed by the surge values..so far away from the landfall!!! I live in one of the areas where the continental shelf is a bad scenario for surge!!! :o

[mitchell]

The slosh models for the Mid Atlantic region (at least the Delmarva Peninsula) are imho not worth the electrons it is written on. Evidently with such a lack of actual events to ground truth the models, the error margin is stunning. Any local who sees the slosh output is aware of this.

Yet emergency managers use the slosh models in decision making for both shelter opening and evacuation route planning. This has the potentially devastating effect of WAY over-evacuating (leading to the well known boy-who-cried-wolf syndrome), and selecting shelters for any particular event that are FAR inland away from potential evacuees who might be willing to relocate to a nearby shelter that they know to be a safe building, but will stay home rather than evacuate to a distant location.

My 2 cents, but the slosh models are not ready for prime time in Delaware and are or far too critical a nature to be rolled out prematurely.

[Guest]

Very interesting. Wonder if the media will pick up on this model for this season and show it to the masses?

Thanks for the link - why don't you get Chad or MF to add it to the Hurricane page.

Patricia

[Rainband]

Very interesting. Wonder if the media will pick up on this model for this season and show it to the masses?

Thanks for the link - why don't you get Chad or MF to add it to the Hurricane page.

Patricia

Ok Ticka!!!

[Guest]

I will say this much mitchell.............You do state a pretty good case for that area............Yes the Ma especially the DE coast cannot be judged on something that has not happened for well over a 100 years which is a land falling hurricane..........However if i do recall back after the 98 storms when lewis and the back bays areas like along rt54 and Longneck had all that bad tidal flooding i do believe they did do a study on it which was incorporated into the longrange planning for the Sussex county coastal development impact project (FEMA was involved by the way as well) and maybe even this slosh model.................Either way i do believe you can get some info for this area even if its just been from a nor'Easter which at times has winds that are up over hurricane force which coastal DE has seen its share of......And other ways as well....................I will add though that i feel way too many people in that area don't take the Hurricane season serous enough because of the lack of hits that area has seen and this could benefit that area in particular because of the lack of awareness or whatever you wanna call it which i am sure you are aware of yourself living there............Oh and in case you are wondering i am from that area i lived at the MD/DE Coasts from 1985 until last year (Rehoboth/Longneck)......................Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this...........Its nice to hear from others in my old stomping grounds..............And by the way i do look forward to seeing this used Rainband and ticka............Thanks for bringing it to us Rainband......

[Rainband]

Thanks King

[mitchell]

However if i do recall back after the 98 storms when lewis and the back bays areas like along rt54 and Longneck had all that bad tidal flooding i do believe they did do a study on it which was incorporated into the longrange planning for the Sussex county coastal development impact project (FEMA was involved by the way as well) and maybe even this slosh model

Nice to hear from another DelMarVan! Storms like the January 4, 1992 and March 1962 northeasters and the 1933 hurricane which landfalled well south of MD but produced hurricane force east winds as far north as Delaware and which opened up both Ocean City and Indian River Inlets are all examples of events which bust the slosh model. All of those storms produced hurricane or near hurricane force sustained onshore winds, the northeasters did so for a longer duration than any likely hurricane at this latitude, and yet the Slosh output for a cat 1 storm produces FAR higher water surface elevations than any of these storms and any other storm of record. It just doesn't compute...