Will caribbean and Bahamas trough spin something?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 23, 2003 2:49 pm

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.txt

That word (SPURIOUS) is in the second paragrafh of the discussion from the hydrology prediction center and it says that plenty of rain will fall from Jamaica,eastern Cuba and the Bahamas in the next few days as a surface trough forms in that area spinning that low but will it be warm core as GFS model shows or nothing tropical will happen there but I guess that we will have to watch that area next week.

chadtm80 · #2 Postby **chadtm80** » Fri May 23, 2003 3:06 pm

Can you explain what SPURIOUS is

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri May 23, 2003 3:17 pm

Spurious is a phantom low created by one model the GFS but no other so far goes with that solution so let's see what the models say in the next runs about that area if they do at all to see if they follow the GFS.

Derek Ortt · #4 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri May 23, 2003 9:27 pm

Looks to be a part of a much larger broad area of low-pressure. I am downplaying this on nwhhc big time as the chances for TC formation are next to nill at this time

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 24, 2003 6:35 am

http://152.80.49.210/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_l ... 2003052400

The latest GFS model run shows this area with plenty of rain and a low pressure down in the caribbean south of Cuba but the model drops the low rapidly after 24 hours.

In my opinion nothing will come out of this surface trough but keep a watch to this area just in case something tropical spins but for now NADA.

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Sat May 24, 2003 7:39 am

Probably not but the GFS has consistently developed something there on the last 5 runs.. Should be a good rain event though

PTrackerLA · #7 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat May 24, 2003 12:43 pm

There sure is a nice blow up of convection down there right now. Don't think it will develop though...

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Sat May 24, 2003 3:02 pm

I guess time will tell. :wink:

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 24, 2003 3:16 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

In this link of the caribbean area you can see the area that has been affected by plenty of rain as a surface trough is in the area and so far no spin there but we will keep watching in the comming days.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 24, 2003 4:43 pm

Looks omminous on pics but shear is 30-50 kts strong so nothing will happen as long as that shear stays that way and the models are not agressive with it but interesting to watch as we are days away from june 1.

therock1811 · #11 Postby **therock1811** » Sun May 25, 2003 7:49 pm

I don't think this will develop attm. Three reasons:
1) The shear is WAY too strong for anything to spin up, thus it is not in a favorable environment.
2) As has been stated by the NHC, the activity has diminished... but is moving into the W Atlantic, which wouldn't be a favorable environment at this time anyway.
3) The convection,which again is gone, is going to develop and be sheared to the east, in fact most of the cloud cover is east of the center anyway.

Will caribbean and Bahamas trough spin something?

Will caribbean and Bahamas trough spin something?

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