Interesting UKMet Run for those of you in the GA/SC/NC area.

[Steve]

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation

It's early in the season so we can jump on some of these model runs. This one runs a low pressure up the east coast. It closes off, but doesn't appear to get too intense. This is the only model at PSU that shows this solution so don't anyone get all excited .

Steve

[Steve]

My bad, the Canadian also 'kinda' runs a low up NC. The AVN keeps it inland. And NOGAPS just kind of moves general low pressure up (inland). But none are as pronounced as the UKMet.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

The UKMET in this instance is the M.O.

It's either the Model Outlier or it's the Model On to Something ... however, IMO, the UKMET did see the rise of Ana fairly well and something to watch, especially since I'm only 30 miles NW of the South Carolina coast.

Anyway I slice it, some very wet times ahead for the lower portion of South Carolina ...

[Derecho]

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cgi?time=2003052000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

It's early in the season so we can jump on some of these model runs. This one runs a low pressure up the east coast. It closes off, but doesn't appear to get too intense. This is the only model at PSU that shows this solution so don't anyone get all excited .

Steve

It's fully and completely non-tropical, even the UKMET, never gets close to being tropical, and has no chance to be tropical. It's an asymmetric cold-core storm the whole time on that run...(which is as far from tropical as a low can get)...consult

http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/cyclonephase ... 00/23.html

(Which is a pretty interesting site.)


It's just a run-of-the mill baroclinic East Coast coastal storm, of which there are dozens and dozens every year. In fact, the low center is NEVER actually over water (consulting the most recent UKMET run, the 21/12Z run, newer than your link) so I'm mystified how it is of any tropical interest at all.

[Steve]

Sweet link.

It crosses to asymetric warm-core, but appears further west in the 12z run. But it still closed off and put some isobars offshore on the 00z hugging the shore land-side. The interest to me is the path. Excepting rogue ULL's, I like to follow what everything does leading into the season. You can get some clues from the pattern and the evolution of the pattern whether it's post-frontal lows, baroclinic or whatever. There were plenty of clues last year that led to the idea that 88-92W might provide a path for the eventual transfer of heat. And there were 4 storms/landfalls within 88-92. Those clues are revealed everyday. Obviously you won't be able to glean future landfalls, because that's more a function of what's on the proverbial table when a storm is cranking, but in a general sense, every low that comes out of the gulf relative to the previous and next one can offer hints to the future when viewed from that perspective.

I bookmarked the site down at the Cyclone Phase evolution analysis and forecasts. I need to dig a little deeper on that PSU site. Thanks again for the link.

Steve

[ColdFront77]

Great points, Steve. That what's makes following the weather as a complete pictures hour by hour, day by day, week by week so interesting. Will be fun to monitor the situation as we move into the next 10 days and beyond.

[Steve H.]

NOGAPS shows area of low pressure near SE Bahamas in the medium range. UKMET also shows low pressure near the SE Coast. Interesting as we get closer to June 1st.

[Steve]

For the record, I caught on Accuweather Pro that in 5 hours, 2.03" of rain fell in Cape Hatteras, there was a pressure fall from 29.88 to 29.68, wind gusts to 48mph, a warm core (non-tropical) and a ship report of 15' seas. It's all offshore heading past the fringe of Long Island with some possible implications for Southern New England later tonight and tomorrow.

Not tropical but picked up well in earlier runs by the UK Met.

Steve

[therock1811]

Appears to elongate as it passes the Outer Banks of NC... however it is definitely off the coast. Should watch this the next couple of days. ATTM, I do not think this will be tropical in nature.