Well already this season has one record and that was when tropical storm Ana formed on the 22nd of april being the first time ever that a tropical storm forms in april.
Will we see more records this season going by the boards as the experts are saying that it will be an active season?
And about a season to remember my opinion is that we will have plenty to talk about this season and I am afraid that the caribbean and somewhere in the US coastline this season will be remembered but of course time will pass and we will know if that will happen.
But folks the most important thing is to be prepared early on and not go at the last moment when a warning is issued to prepare and hope for the best.
Be free to comment about this theme that I am bringing here that is important.
Will the 2003 season be one to remember and of records?
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cycloneye
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Will the 2003 season be one to remember and of records?
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue May 20, 2003 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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wx247
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I was watching TWC last night (yes I still watch 
) and Jim Cantore was in Miami talking about the NOAA conference. He was talking about being overdue for a landfalling hurricane. I have also read a few articles about how much a lot of areas around the coastline have built up in recent years.
Thus, I don't think it would take another Andrew to top the record as being the most expensive US landfalling hurricane. :o I hope I am wrong and I hope the people who haven't been through one know enough to get out if it gets bad enough.
) and Jim Cantore was in Miami talking about the NOAA conference. He was talking about being overdue for a landfalling hurricane. I have also read a few articles about how much a lot of areas around the coastline have built up in recent years.
Thus, I don't think it would take another Andrew to top the record as being the most expensive US landfalling hurricane. :o I hope I am wrong and I hope the people who haven't been through one know enough to get out if it gets bad enough.
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Good posts wx & cyeye. The vast majority of our coastal citizens have not experienced a major landfalling hurricane. I live in New Orleans, and I don't count either since I was all of 1 when Hurricane Betsy hit N.O.
I suspect we'll have a lot to track this year. For coastal Louisiana, it's going to be tough to top 2002 as we had so many brushes with tropical systems, and the country as a whole had an almost unprecidented 8 landfalls. But as everyone knows, the entire U.S. has dodged the proverbial bullet for the last several seasons. It wasn't until Lili hit SW LA last year that we broke the string of seasons without landfalling hurricanes. Without looking up the history for this particular post, there have been something like 25-29 IH's over the last several seasons which I believe is a record over a 5 or 6 year period. But none of them have made landfall in America. In that respect, danger is always lurking over the horizon. I've seen estimates that if the track of Andrew had been slightly north (and we're talking a couple dozen miles which is nothing on a global scale), the damage could have tripled or quadrupled. And if that was the case, chances are Andrew's 2nd landfall would have been in coastal Terrebonne/Lafourche rather than St. Mary Parish, LA. So rather than a few inches of rain and 45-60mph gusts in the city, we'd have taken on several inches and 65-80mph gusts.
So I say we're all sitting ducks with the way the coastal population has exploded over the last 50 years. From New England, down the Eastern Seaboard, the mid-Atlantic, coastal SC & GA, the entire state of FL, the Northern and NW Gulf Coasts, it's only a matter of time before some of our communities get slammed.
Here in New Orleans, we have a unique situation being below sea level. Even Georges (98?) (which I think was a Cat-2 when it hit Harrison/Jackson Co's, MS), had it come further west, would likely have innundated the city with 15-20' of water. The unfortunate thing for New Orleans, is once the water is in, there's nowhere for it to go if Lake Pontchartrain is already high due to storm surge. Luckily, all we got from him was a bunch of 50mph wind gusts and downed power lines all over the city. That was bad enough. But we're actually better off with a Cat-1 than a slow-moving tropical depression or tropical storm. The rainfall they create and the rate which it falls cannot be compensated by our vastly-improved pumping systems. Tropical Storm Frances was 500 miles away near Brownsville, yet the feeder bands trained across the city for several hours stranding thousands of commuters. Same thing for Isidore last year. I drove across a canal flowing across the Airline Hwy. (US 61) about 5 minutes before they shut it down. I was lucky.
In any event, I'm looking forward to an exciting year like the rest of you. Let's hope that when it's time to recap 2003, we can laugh about another lucky year for everyone and the big one(s) that got close but never made a serious impact.
Steve
I suspect we'll have a lot to track this year. For coastal Louisiana, it's going to be tough to top 2002 as we had so many brushes with tropical systems, and the country as a whole had an almost unprecidented 8 landfalls. But as everyone knows, the entire U.S. has dodged the proverbial bullet for the last several seasons. It wasn't until Lili hit SW LA last year that we broke the string of seasons without landfalling hurricanes. Without looking up the history for this particular post, there have been something like 25-29 IH's over the last several seasons which I believe is a record over a 5 or 6 year period. But none of them have made landfall in America. In that respect, danger is always lurking over the horizon. I've seen estimates that if the track of Andrew had been slightly north (and we're talking a couple dozen miles which is nothing on a global scale), the damage could have tripled or quadrupled. And if that was the case, chances are Andrew's 2nd landfall would have been in coastal Terrebonne/Lafourche rather than St. Mary Parish, LA. So rather than a few inches of rain and 45-60mph gusts in the city, we'd have taken on several inches and 65-80mph gusts.
So I say we're all sitting ducks with the way the coastal population has exploded over the last 50 years. From New England, down the Eastern Seaboard, the mid-Atlantic, coastal SC & GA, the entire state of FL, the Northern and NW Gulf Coasts, it's only a matter of time before some of our communities get slammed.
Here in New Orleans, we have a unique situation being below sea level. Even Georges (98?) (which I think was a Cat-2 when it hit Harrison/Jackson Co's, MS), had it come further west, would likely have innundated the city with 15-20' of water. The unfortunate thing for New Orleans, is once the water is in, there's nowhere for it to go if Lake Pontchartrain is already high due to storm surge. Luckily, all we got from him was a bunch of 50mph wind gusts and downed power lines all over the city. That was bad enough. But we're actually better off with a Cat-1 than a slow-moving tropical depression or tropical storm. The rainfall they create and the rate which it falls cannot be compensated by our vastly-improved pumping systems. Tropical Storm Frances was 500 miles away near Brownsville, yet the feeder bands trained across the city for several hours stranding thousands of commuters. Same thing for Isidore last year. I drove across a canal flowing across the Airline Hwy. (US 61) about 5 minutes before they shut it down. I was lucky.
In any event, I'm looking forward to an exciting year like the rest of you. Let's hope that when it's time to recap 2003, we can laugh about another lucky year for everyone and the big one(s) that got close but never made a serious impact.
Steve
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Rainband
>>Great post steve.. I live in a buffer zone!!! We always get missed but I am thinking one of these years our luck will run out..Will it be 2003??I guess I will have to wait and see. At any rate it is going to be an interesting year!!!
Yeah. Tampa is about as overdue as we are here in New Orleans. I've seen a couple Cat 1's like Florence (88?) come through, but I've seen worse tropical storms. Our last major impact was 1965, though tornados spawned from Andrew did kill a bunch of people in LaPlace (stuff. La-plos - short o sound like hot) which is about 20 miles or so to our west.
I'm with you though. I've got a feeling it's going to be an interesting season too. And this year, it might just not be the usual suspects - The Outer Banks, south FL and Boothville/Venice, LA.
11 days and counting.
Steve
Yeah. Tampa is about as overdue as we are here in New Orleans. I've seen a couple Cat 1's like Florence (88?) come through, but I've seen worse tropical storms. Our last major impact was 1965, though tornados spawned from Andrew did kill a bunch of people in LaPlace (stuff. La-plos - short o sound like hot) which is about 20 miles or so to our west.
I'm with you though. I've got a feeling it's going to be an interesting season too. And this year, it might just not be the usual suspects - The Outer Banks, south FL and Boothville/Venice, LA.
11 days and counting.
Steve
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ColdFront77
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Rainband
Yes..it seems to me that mother-nature is getting very unpredictable and the bad weather pattern both tropical and mainland is really starting to come out of it's so called lull. If you think about it the weather this year both winter and severe has been very dramatic..I don't see anything to point to a reason the tropical season won't be as volatile..I guess we will see soon!!!..It's really a double edged sword..as a weather buff..I love to see hurricanes and tropical storms..but I don't want anyone to get hurt or lose their property..I guess the way I look at it the storms are going to happen..it's not our choice..but we can watch and learn from them. That is something we can control...Steve wrote:>>Great post steve.. I live in a buffer zone!!! We always get missed but I am thinking one of these years our luck will run out..Will it be 2003??I guess I will have to wait and see. At any rate it is going to be an interesting year!!!
Yeah. Tampa is about as overdue as we are here in New Orleans. I've seen a couple Cat 1's like Florence (88?) come through, but I've seen worse tropical storms. Our last major impact was 1965, though tornados spawned from Andrew did kill a bunch of people in LaPlace (stuff. La-plos - short o sound like hot) which is about 20 miles or so to our west.
I'm with you though. I've got a feeling it's going to be an interesting season too. And this year, it might just not be the usual suspects - The Outer Banks, south FL and Boothville/Venice, LA.
11 days and counting.
Steve
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cycloneye
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Here in Puerto Rico we are every year watching to our east to see if something comes out of the CV area and threats the caribbean.The people here mostly prepare at the last moment when a warning is issued and that is bad because the last minute thing going to the market,to the hardware store etc large crowds go there and that has been the case every time a cane threats us.The last experience of a landfall cane georges the people here did the same thing at the last minute but I and my family every year prepare from june 1 so if something threats us we are prepared with everything to pass the cane.
I have a bad feeling here in PR because not many fish systems will go away from the caribbean as the bermuda high will be established to block the north track.
I have a bad feeling here in PR because not many fish systems will go away from the caribbean as the bermuda high will be established to block the north track.
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>>Steve, I see you weren't quite sure which years Frances and Georges made landfall across Louisiana, they were 1988 and 1998, respectively.
No Frances, Georges and Hermine was all 1998. The Cat-1 storm I was referring to as a wimpy one was Florence in 1988 (10 years prior). Frances actually hit (if it went in) somewhere around Brownsville. Hermine hit New Orleans, but all the storms were displaced as far east as Mobile Bay. And Georges went in Harrison/Jackson Counties, MS - we got about .25" rain, but lots of wind and power outages. I only lost cable for an hour
. I remember Florence being windy, but I had control of my 2 friends' beermeister, and they didn't get off of work until 10. I fell asleep and missed the eye 
. They say the winds gusted to around 60ish at the lakefront airport (a half mile from where I was).
Steve
No Frances, Georges and Hermine was all 1998. The Cat-1 storm I was referring to as a wimpy one was Florence in 1988 (10 years prior). Frances actually hit (if it went in) somewhere around Brownsville. Hermine hit New Orleans, but all the storms were displaced as far east as Mobile Bay. And Georges went in Harrison/Jackson Counties, MS - we got about .25" rain, but lots of wind and power outages. I only lost cable for an hour
. I remember Florence being windy, but I had control of my 2 friends' beermeister, and they didn't get off of work until 10. I fell asleep and missed the eye . They say the winds gusted to around 60ish at the lakefront airport (a half mile from where I was).
Steve
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>>It's really a double edged sword..as a weather buff..I love to see hurricanes and tropical storms..but I don't want anyone to get hurt or lose their property..I guess the way I look at it the storms are going to happen..it's not our choice..but we can watch and learn from them. That is something we can control...
You and me both Rainband. I've taken my share of flack over the years from people who think I'm crazy. I'm sure most of us have. And you got it exactly right. On the one hand, you don't want anyone getting hurt, but storms are going to happen no matter what.
Plenty of old timers have warned me that it's really no fun huddling with your family in a closet while the roof is blowing off and the walls of your house are failing. They say it's no fun listening to the glass shatter and the winds scream all around you. They say it's no fun waiting on top of your neighbor's roof for the rescue boats to pick you up. They say it's no fun fighting rodents and reptiles for space after the storm has passed. And they say it's no fun getting stuck for a couple of weeks without power or air conditioning. And I believe all of that. But I've never seen it first hand. My response is usually that when the day comes that I'm scared you-know-what-less by a hurricane, I'll be the first one out of town next time around. I wouldn't hang around the coastline at a party if a Cat-5 was blowing in with a 25' storm surge, but you can bet your bottom dollar that my ice chest will be packed with cold beer if a Cat-3 or anything less is coming my way. I have the utmost respect for nature, but there's no way I'm not going to enjoy the show. Every storm is different. Every one of them brings its own set of problems. Our job as people is to figure out a way to deal with those problems. I can't think of a better way than with an ice cold Abita Amber or Purple Haze to take the edge off.
Steve
You and me both Rainband. I've taken my share of flack over the years from people who think I'm crazy. I'm sure most of us have. And you got it exactly right. On the one hand, you don't want anyone getting hurt, but storms are going to happen no matter what.
Plenty of old timers have warned me that it's really no fun huddling with your family in a closet while the roof is blowing off and the walls of your house are failing. They say it's no fun listening to the glass shatter and the winds scream all around you. They say it's no fun waiting on top of your neighbor's roof for the rescue boats to pick you up. They say it's no fun fighting rodents and reptiles for space after the storm has passed. And they say it's no fun getting stuck for a couple of weeks without power or air conditioning. And I believe all of that. But I've never seen it first hand. My response is usually that when the day comes that I'm scared you-know-what-less by a hurricane, I'll be the first one out of town next time around. I wouldn't hang around the coastline at a party if a Cat-5 was blowing in with a 25' storm surge, but you can bet your bottom dollar that my ice chest will be packed with cold beer if a Cat-3 or anything less is coming my way. I have the utmost respect for nature, but there's no way I'm not going to enjoy the show. Every storm is different. Every one of them brings its own set of problems. Our job as people is to figure out a way to deal with those problems. I can't think of a better way than with an ice cold Abita Amber or Purple Haze to take the edge off.
Steve
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weatherlover427
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Well so far this year has been a year of records and repeats..........And with just about every forecaster saying its gonna be a active season..........It seems very reasonable that this will be a tropical season to remember.........As far as records go im sure we will have a few of them broken as well..
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vbhoutex
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Great discussion guys!!
I too feel we are in for more records this season. They will probably be records we don't want too. Ana started us off with a surprise, then we began May with a record outbreak of tornados. What's next? Only God knows for sure, but indications are we will be looking at more hurricanes and more intense hurricanes, imo. What makes that a little more scary, for lack of better words, is the fact that there is a growing pool of thought among weather enthusiasts, scientists and forecasters that there is probably a connection between a more active hurrricane season and a very active "tornado season" or "severe weather season". We may find out if this seems to be true. I would guess, however, that it more than likely has something to do with waning El Nino's and developing La Nina's. Any way you look at it more than likely we will have an above average season and most factors are pointing towards more landfalling storms this year unless there is a change in the locations of our perennial Bermuda and Azores highs.
I too feel we are in for more records this season. They will probably be records we don't want too. Ana started us off with a surprise, then we began May with a record outbreak of tornados. What's next? Only God knows for sure, but indications are we will be looking at more hurricanes and more intense hurricanes, imo. What makes that a little more scary, for lack of better words, is the fact that there is a growing pool of thought among weather enthusiasts, scientists and forecasters that there is probably a connection between a more active hurrricane season and a very active "tornado season" or "severe weather season". We may find out if this seems to be true. I would guess, however, that it more than likely has something to do with waning El Nino's and developing La Nina's. Any way you look at it more than likely we will have an above average season and most factors are pointing towards more landfalling storms this year unless there is a change in the locations of our perennial Bermuda and Azores highs.
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ColdFront77
The Spring of 1995 was very violent across the United States and we had four tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin at the same time one to four months later in mid-August. There may be some basic reasoning for this, but I know full well that there does not have to be a correlation between the two.
The current official forecast and most of us here have no reason to disagree that this hurricane season will be above avoer with some reference to the tornadic outbreak during the first half of this month having even a hint of bearing.
The current official forecast and most of us here have no reason to disagree that this hurricane season will be above avoer with some reference to the tornadic outbreak during the first half of this month having even a hint of bearing.
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jabber
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Steve... I agree with what you said. My family, Friends, and co-workers think I am kinda nuts (Wife thinks I am really nuts when I wake up for the 2:00am update). I love weather and the power of storms. I do not wish harm on anyone, but I am the first to get disappointed when a forecast track does not point directly to where I live. I saw the devastation that Andrew caused (Sister lived in the path, brought here supplies a couple days later). The only storm I have been in was Irene, it was a Cat 1 (just) and was more of a rain event (26 inches in 16 hours) then wind. I do not know if its going to be a 'record' season, but am sure its going to be busy and will be prepared. I would not be suprised if I had to put the shutters up twice this year. One of the things that I love to do, I know I am not right, is to go to Publix (Grocery store) during a watch and warning and see the panic of folk who have not prepared. People buying 20 cans of lima beans is pretty amusing to me..... told you I was sick 
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OuterBanker
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I hope so!
A record fourth year without a hurricane warning for the OBX would be nice. Unfortunately, I think we won't set this record. But then again, I didn't think we would reach three years last year. Below is a post that I made last year in April called "Will luck run out". The opening sentence can now read "Three years", I'm hoping to ad "four years" next year. Extreme optimism I suppose.
Two years without a major hurricane landfall in the US, seven years of decreased landfalls with increased activity. Predictions starting in 1990 that more land falling hurricanes would occur which didn't happen. Constant news hype year after year about over building and the potential catastrophe about to occur, which hasn't. Mass evacuations which didn't seem necessary. Ten years since Andrew, now a distant memory. Although Floyd was the most costly catastrophe in NC history, the damage occurred in poor rural areas with almost all damage due to flooding. Floyd lacked the drama of the angry ocean ripping apart expensive oceanfront homes, no violent dramatic winds tearing off roofs, and other necessary ingredients that have to be present (it seems) to remain in our memory. Floyd remains in some minds here in NC, but not enough to overpower the optimism of going through another hurricane free year.
Two years without a major hurricane landfall in the US, seven years of decreased landfalls with increased activity. Predictions starting in 1990 that more land falling hurricanes would occur which didn't happen. Constant news hype year after year about over building and the potential catastrophe about to occur, which hasn't. Mass evacuations which didn't seem necessary. Ten years since Andrew, now a distant memory. Although Floyd was the most costly catastrophe in NC history, the damage occurred in poor rural areas with almost all damage due to flooding. Floyd lacked the drama of the angry ocean ripping apart expensive oceanfront homes, no violent dramatic winds tearing off roofs, and other necessary ingredients that have to be present (it seems) to remain in our memory. Floyd remains in some minds here in NC, but not enough to overpower the optimism of going through another hurricane free year.
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This board is nice. No bickering and always weather related
Unlike weather.com which seems to be very ancy over there. Well I am in the buffer zone too if you will. I live in tarpon springs and it really seems unlikely to get something here although we do get t.s.'s occasionally. Anyways I just wanted to say hi and am looking forward to an interesting season this year. Thanks for letting me join. Robbielyn
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>>but I am the first to get disappointed when a forecast track does not point directly to where I live.
Most of us do except the most seasonsed of veterans. I go into auto-pilot though when the track points my way. I keep waiting for them to move it east or west because until last year, everything always seems to curve away.
>>One of the things that I love to do, I know I am not right, is to go to Publix (Grocery store) during a watch and warning and see the panic of folk who have not prepared. People buying 20 cans of lima beans is pretty amusing to me..... told you I was sick
I wouldn't call that sick. I usually get there a day or two ahead of the masses since I follow things a little more closely on the internet. If there is a serious threat entering the Gulf, I'm usually early enough to get whatever supplies I'm low on (water, batteries, etc.). But I don't mind running out to the store or gas station at crunch time to get a few last minute things like gas or extra ice or cigarettes. In New Orleans, a storm usually brings the community together, in a weird way almost like Christmas. Everyone's a little on edge, but they all have stories to tell, plans to discuss, and all that. You can literally talk to anyone in the store because everyone understands that we're all in it together. Whether we choose to evacuate or stay home doesn't matter. The storm takes over everything and becomes THE ONLY topic of discussion. It doesn't matter if you are black or white, rich or poor, doctor or janitor - everyone is at the mercy of mother nature. You see a lot of people cleaning out neighbor's storm drains, helping their parents secure loose objects and all that. It's an interesting psychology when people are preparing for the worst.
Oh yeah, you won't catch >me< eating cans of lima beans. Yech.
Steve
Most of us do except the most seasonsed of veterans. I go into auto-pilot though when the track points my way. I keep waiting for them to move it east or west because until last year, everything always seems to curve away.
>>One of the things that I love to do, I know I am not right, is to go to Publix (Grocery store) during a watch and warning and see the panic of folk who have not prepared. People buying 20 cans of lima beans is pretty amusing to me..... told you I was sick
I wouldn't call that sick
. I usually get there a day or two ahead of the masses since I follow things a little more closely on the internet. If there is a serious threat entering the Gulf, I'm usually early enough to get whatever supplies I'm low on (water, batteries, etc.). But I don't mind running out to the store or gas station at crunch time to get a few last minute things like gas or extra ice or cigarettes. In New Orleans, a storm usually brings the community together, in a weird way almost like Christmas. Everyone's a little on edge, but they all have stories to tell, plans to discuss, and all that. You can literally talk to anyone in the store because everyone understands that we're all in it together. Whether we choose to evacuate or stay home doesn't matter. The storm takes over everything and becomes THE ONLY topic of discussion. It doesn't matter if you are black or white, rich or poor, doctor or janitor - everyone is at the mercy of mother nature. You see a lot of people cleaning out neighbor's storm drains, helping their parents secure loose objects and all that. It's an interesting psychology when people are preparing for the worst.
Oh yeah, you won't catch >me< eating cans of lima beans. Yech.
Steve
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cycloneye
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Welcome Robbielyn to storm2k and looking foward to a busy and interesting season ahead and to have good discussions with you about tropical weather.
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jabber
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" In New Orleans, a storm usually brings the community together, in a weird way almost like Christmas. Everyone's a little on edge, but they all have stories to tell, plans to discuss, and all that. You can literally talk to anyone in the store because everyone understands that we're all in it together. Whether we choose to evacuate or stay home doesn't matter. The storm takes over everything and becomes THE ONLY topic of discussion. It doesn't matter if you are black or white, rich or poor, doctor or janitor - everyone is at the mercy of mother nature. You see a lot of people cleaning out neighbor's storm drains, helping their parents secure loose objects and all that. It's an interesting psychology when people are preparing for the worst.
Oh yeah, you won't catch >me< eating cans of lima beans. Yech.
Steve[/quote]
South Florida does not really have a tight knit community. It's , from my experience, falls into two camps. people who are prepared (folks who were raised here or have lived here for years) and folks who really have no clue to whats going on.. I have heard this before 'What Hurricane warning'. The majority of the population in S. Florida it seems have recently moved to the area so have never really been through the drill. For example I was in a meeting at work with about 30 or so co-workers and for some reason we were going around the room telling where we were born.... I was the only one who was born in Florida.
Oh yeah, you won't catch >me< eating cans of lima beans. Yech.
Steve[/quote]
South Florida does not really have a tight knit community. It's , from my experience, falls into two camps. people who are prepared (folks who were raised here or have lived here for years) and folks who really have no clue to whats going on.. I have heard this before 'What Hurricane warning'. The majority of the population in S. Florida it seems have recently moved to the area so have never really been through the drill. For example I was in a meeting at work with about 30 or so co-workers and for some reason we were going around the room telling where we were born.... I was the only one who was born in Florida.
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