Worldwide Tropical Update: 02 February 2005

[senorpepr]

The Storm2K Worldwide Tropical Update for 02 February 2005 at 0000Z.

Subtropical Depression Felapi (94S/MFR-11) (02/0000Z)
Position: 28.7S 49.7E (530 mi SE of Toliara, Madahascar)
Movement: S at 9 mph
Winds: 40 mph
Pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

Felapi is continuing SE. This will keep it away from Madagascar. Meanwhile over the next 36 hours, expect the system to dissipate as a hybrid system.

Tropical Depression Noname (95S/97S/MFR-12) (02/0000Z)
Position: 19.6S 64.1E (420 mi ENE of Port Louis, Mauritius)
Movement: SW at 8 mph
Winds: 35 mph
Pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53"
Dvorak Est: Too weak

JTWC and NRL appears to not have their mind set on this system. Formally 95S, now listed as 97S, and as known as 12R, is continuing SSE. This system looks as a large monsoonal depression, with the strongest band of winds displaces far from the center. With dry air intruding into the mid and upper levels, expect limited changes over the next few days. Regardless, 12R will continue to move slowly, bring heavy rains to the Mascarenes Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Lola (96P/FMS-06) (01/1800Z)
Position: 25.1S 174.5W (270 mi SE of Nuku’alufa, Tonga)
Movement: SSE at 6 mph
Winds: 45 mph
Pressure: 995 mb / 29.38"
Dvorak Est: 1.0/2.0

Lola is continuing SSE, but is expected to shift toward the SW. Deep convection associated with Lola is removed to the SE of the center. Outflow aloft is restricted in the SW quadrant, but appear good elsewhere. Expect Lola to continue weakening over the next couple days. Also, FMS has issued their final advisory on Lola and is being passed onto MSNZ.

Tropical Depression Noname (98P/FMS-07) (02/0000Z)
Position: 16.0S 166.0W (315 mi E of Pago Pago, American Samoa)
Movement: **
Winds: 20 mph
Pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59"
Dvorak Est: Too Weak

Strengthening convergence zones to the depression’s west and northeast will help pump moisture into the system and sustain organization. Models seem to agree on deepening the system slowly over the next day or two, with modest development thereafter.

For more information on the aforementioned system(s), go to the Storm2K’s Worldwide Tropical Update website at
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com

[senorpepr]

(bump to amend the previous update to add Tropical Depression 07F (Invest 98P).)