Interesting pattern in the Atlantic Ocean continues...

[Hyperstorm]

Very interesting...

A well-developed area of low pressure is located in the E. Central Atlantic Ocean near 30N 40W, very near where Otto developed late last month.

OK...the system does have an impressively tight circulation already and some thunderstorm activity near its center. This indicates to me a cyclone with some subtropical characteristics. Even though SSTs are quite cool (Low/Mid 70*s), UL winds do not appear to be unfavorable for development at this time. This by itself is helping the system evacuate and develop some.

I'm not going to jump on anything now, since climatologically this will be an anomaly, however we have once again a potential low pressure area who is trying to become more than what it is now.

Unbelievable...

[HURAKAN]

DEEP MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 29N39W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIFT/DIVERGENCE FOR A BAND OF WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 24N27W 28N31W 31N40W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WNW WITH THE LOW PROBABLY STAYING MORE EXTRATROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL. OF COURSE NOW THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LOW FORMING IN A COUPLE DAYS NEAR 25N45W OUT OF A MESS OF MOISTURE NOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. I GUESS THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE ATLC OCEAN IS MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE AREA.

[george_r_1961]

It looks baroclininc to me, and i think it will stay that way.Perhaps Santa will fly thru it in a few hours when he begins his journey and send us back some obs.

[Hurricanehink]

You never know....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks pretty good on the visible satellite. Much like a tropical storm. Wind field on quickscats show a more subtropical.

[george_r_1961]

Well convection isnt all that strong..but the sattelite signature appears to be that of a weak subtropical system. Gonna take a wait and see attitude with this one

[Stormsfury]

It is baroclinic, but the NHC even mentioning subtropical makes me cringe WRT to how seasons as of late seemingly continue to expand well beyond the "norm"...

Anyways, pretty interesting but a more significant event ongoing Stateside.

SF

[Hyperstorm]

Update:

The low didn't do much as it became completely devoid of convection yesterday. For a while on Friday it appeared to have some subtropical characteristics, but cooler waters did the trick.

Now, I'm actually looking at that new low that the models had been developing for days and has now formed about 1000 miles to the NE of the Lesser Antilles. It is, of course, over warmer SSTs than the last low (Upper 70s) and is not going anywhere anytime soon (36-60 hours). It has to tighten up, however, to do something as is fairly broad and attached to a HUGE area of troughiness.

I would like to see what transpires over the next few days since it's actually very interesting (and rare) to see these fairly tight cold-core lows develop on increased frequency this late in December (and fairly far south). I guess you can blame the warmer than average waters...

[Hyperstorm]

Great satellite image of the Christmas Eve Low near 30N 40W around the time it had its best satellite signature:



VERY interesting to say the least...

[Hurricanehink]

It could be trying to develop an inner core. While it is still most likely cold core, it is trying to become subtropical. Will it get there? That's up to NHC.

[HalloweenGale]

its like 1994