NHC eyes new disturbance at caribbean

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cycloneye
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NHC eyes new disturbance at caribbean

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 10, 2004 11:42 am

Image

I am giving all the credit to Hyperstorm and wxman57 that were the first members early this morning to see that area as a good one that might have more chance than the baroclinic low pressure trough 91L.Will we see 92L invest up for that disturbance?The area is located just at the tip of Colombia wre you can see a decent outflow channel and less influence of the trough.But I see a problem for it to develop and that is about being very close to the Colombian coast.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EST WED NOV 10 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


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1 PM EST Discussion

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 10, 2004 1:11 pm

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9.5N AT THE
COLOMBIA BORDER TO 13N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 74W AND 76W
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT 100 NM
NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 9N76W. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWENTY FOUR
HOURS...AND CATCH UP TO THE SURFACE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 15N70W. THIS SURFACE CENTER WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENHANCE
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW CENTER. IT IS EXPECTED ALSO THAT THE WHOLE AREA OF DEEP
LAYER LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE FOLLOWING 24 TO 48 HOURS AFTER
THE MIDDLE LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW CENTER BECOME
VERTICALLY ALIGNED.

It looks like this new disturbance will merge with the caribbean low 91L.
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#3 Postby sponger » Wed Nov 10, 2004 1:25 pm

Interesting. Where would we be with out you cyclone! This season just doesnt want to quit. The proverbial fat lady has not sung yet.
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