Radar loops from Puerto Rico and reports of the rain event

[cycloneye]

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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Here are the radar loops short and long range of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and all here can follow this rain event as it unfolds.

[The Big Dog]

I don't see any rotation in the long range view, at least as of now. Just lots of rain.

[cycloneye]

Rain,Rain,Rain for us.Hopefully the rain event is not a massive flooding event but the orografic effects of the mountains will enhance the precipitation.

[msbee]

are you gettign much rain yet, Luis?
we had a heavy thunderstorm last night and some heavy rain this mroning.
the rest of the day was cloudy but dry.
I think we will get some more rain from this thing though.
Barbara

[cycloneye]

are you gettign much rain yet, Luis?
we had a heavy thunderstorm last night and some heavy rain this mroning.
the rest of the day was cloudy but dry.
I think we will get some more rain from this thing though.
Barbara

No rain today here but I am looking at 4-8 inches here with more inches in the mountains.But you will get plenty of it too in ST Marteen Barbara.I hope that it will be rain only with some gusts and no more stronger winds than 30kts.

[cycloneye]

Now it has begun to rain here in San Juan in a moderate way.And it is only the start of the event for Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

Good news for us here as no heavy precipitation has fallen overnight.Only light to moderate rain has fallen in portions of the island.The main heavy rain bands passed PR to our south and never moved north.Let's see what happens today but so far the 4-8 inches feared 2 days ago has not come thru.It is a gray morning in San Juan with light sprinkles falling.

[caribepr]

It's about the same here as with you Luis. The only thing weird is the cat, who is acting like we are joined at the hip. That is pure science, obviously, that something is *in the air*

[caribepr]

It's about the same here as with you Luis. The only thing weird is the cat, who is acting like we are joined at the hip. That is pure science, obviously, that something is *in the air*

[cycloneye]

It's about the same here as with you Luis. The only thing weird is the cat, who is acting like we are joined at the hip. That is pure science, obviously, that something is *in the air*

Well I only talk about weather and what you said about the cat is interesting his reactions to the changing weather .

[cycloneye]

000
fxca62 tjsj 101101
afdsju

puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
600 am ast wed nov 10 2004

. discussion ... a tricky forecast locally for the next few days. mid
to upper level trough located just west through northwest of the
local area early this morning and it will continue moving slowly
east through thursday night ... and now looks like it will remain near
the local area through most of friday ... before weakening slightly
and lifting northeast saturday and saturday night. at the same
time ... slowly deepening surface low near 14. 5n and 71. 0w ... is
forecast to continue to deepen and move toward the east northeast
across the caribbean ... passing south of the south coast of puerto
rico late tonight through early thursday ... and then across or just
south of st croix late thursday and thursday night.

here lies the forecast problem ... as this track is much further south
and east than this time yesterday. as noted by previous
forecasters ... despite deep layered mid to upper level moisture...
deepest moisture at low levels has been held at bay to the south of
puerto rico due to the stronger than previously expected north
northeast wind flow. this moisture will need to be lifted back to
the north northeast and into forecast area by the aforementioned
surface low ... in order for the real heavy and persistent rainfall we
have advertised ... to develop. if surface low remains on a more
southern track ... as now indicated by guidance ... deepest moisture may
just skirt the south coast of puerto rico ... culebra and vieques and
the u. s. virgin islands ... maintaining the greatest likelihood of
persistent ... heavy rainfall and flooding in these locations. that
said ... still should be enough moisture ... favorable dynamics and
local effects ... such that all of the fa will still see showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall ... but heaviest may remain
over far south and east sections. this would be a bit of good
news ... as flash and river flood risk would also be reduced.
however ... given uncertainty that remains even now ... have opted to
continue earlier forecasts of heavy rain and flash flood potential
for all of the local islands ... until it becomes more clear exactly
how strong surface low is and exactly where it will track. along
these same lines ... we have continued and extended flash flood watch
through early thursday afternoon.

thus ... in summary ... still appears likely that the combination of
this mid to upper level trough and favorable dynamics ... increasing
instability ... deepening surface low (possibly with some tropical
characteristics)... good 850 - 700 theta e advection and resultant
theta e ridge aligning near or just south of fa ... and local
effects ... should still result in rather active weather locally for
the next few days ... with weather worsening later today and tonight
and then continuing through thursday.

&&

. marine ... expect gradually deteriorating conditions today and
tonight ... with increasing wind field across the local waters and
showers and thunderstorms. then ... north northwest swells will begin
to affect the atlantic waters and the caribbean passages late
tonight or early thursday ... then build significantly later thursday
and friday ... then linger through at least saturday and probably
sunday too. have a precautionary statement for the atlantic off
shore waters today ... and then "a small craft advisory will likely be
required tonight or thursday" headline for all zones. given large
north northwest and then north swells ... developing moderate to
strong northeast and then north wind and increasingly high
astronomical high tides the next few days ... would expect a good
chance of some coastal flooding along northwest through northeast
coasts of the local islands ... with high surf advisories as well.
based on timing of building swells ... held off on coastal flood watch
this morning ... but will probably be needed with later forecasts
today

[cycloneye]

Around 10:00 AM AST it has started to rain in San Juan at a moderate stage.There is a line of thundershowers just to the north of the coast that is zagging south that may bring more heavy precipitation.

[msbee]

Luis
we had a steady rain all night last night
about 1.5 inches fell in my yard.
Right now skies are cloudy but no rain.
hope PR doesn't get much more than that.
Barbara

[caribepr]

Sky just went dark and heavy rain started, but the clouds are ripping by with brightness behind them...figuring this is just the roller coaster we're on for awhile.

[cycloneye]

Steady light to moderate rain falling now.Also a constant NE breeze sometimes gusting to over 25 mph.

[msbee]

man, we have no breeze at all
things are very very still
the humidity must be 110 % htough except it isn't raining
the air sure is thick and heavy though

[cycloneye]

afdsju

puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
410 pm ast wed nov 10 2004

. discussion...

very complex set of synoptic features is beginning to develop. there
is a developing surface low centered near 14. 5 north and 70 west.
this low is expected to drift slowly to the northeast over the next
24 hours. there is also a middle level circulation just off the
northwest coast of colombia. its expected that the mid level
circulation will catch up to the surface low and that the
combination of the two will result in a more rapid intensification
of surface low ... by 48 hours expected to be just to the east of the
forecast area.

in addition to the synoptic features above ... locally there is a
north northeast low level winds ... associated with a low to mid level
ridge building in from the northwest ... that is bringing cloudiness
and low level moisture over the local islands ... resulting in
stratiform type rain.

lastly ... the mid to upper level trough just to the northwest of the
region is expected to continue to deepen.

given all the factors above ... must continue the flash flood warning.
it looks like the stratiform rain over the puerto rico and st.
thomas and st. john will continue through the night. convection
ahead of the developing surface low is slowly drifting into the
southeast sections of the local coastal waters ... and will likely
affect st. croix over night ... believe that is the favored area for
convection.

for marine conditions ... previously well advertised rapidly
developing long period north northeast swell is still expected to
enter the atlantic waters on thursday ... with combined seas over 10
feet ... perhaps even greater ... likely over the off shore atlantic
waters by thursday afternoon

Wow a bunch of rain is still on tap for Puerto Rico,the Virgin islands and the northern Leewards.So msbee expect more rain in the next 24-48 hours in St Marteen and for caribepr in Culebra the same a soaking next day or two.Also not very warm days as it is cloudy and with fresh NE winds.

[Lindaloo]

All my island weather buddies stay safe down there.

[cycloneye]

All my island weather buddies stay safe down there.

About me Linda I am in a safe and dry place.I know that the other fellow members in the islands are in safe places too.

[msbee]

thanks lindaloo
we are safe and dry too
I sure would like some sunshine though so my solar water heater can heat some hot water.