91L invest for caribbean low and model plots

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cycloneye
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91L invest for caribbean low and model plots

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2004 8:23 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

I am surprised to see this invest but I hope if and is a BIG IF something subtropical develops from this it does so after it crosses Puerto Rico.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Nov 09, 2004 9:42 am, edited 3 times in total.
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First model plots for 91L

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2004 8:25 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20041109 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041109 1200 041110 0000 041110 1200 041111 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 71.5W 16.1N 68.9W 18.6N 66.3W 21.1N 64.1W
BAMM 13.5N 71.5W 15.7N 69.7W 17.5N 68.1W 19.0N 66.6W
A98E 13.5N 71.5W 14.3N 69.8W 15.1N 68.5W 15.6N 67.6W
LBAR 13.5N 71.5W 15.1N 69.5W 16.8N 67.4W 17.9N 65.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041111 1200 041112 1200 041113 1200 041114 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 62.5W 27.4N 57.4W 30.4N 47.2W 28.9N 39.7W
BAMM 19.7N 66.2W 20.6N 65.7W 21.4N 63.6W 23.3N 61.1W
A98E 15.9N 66.5W 16.9N 63.8W 18.7N 61.0W 21.6N 58.3W
LBAR 18.4N 64.5W 20.0N 62.9W 21.6N 60.6W 24.2N 58.4W
SHIP 33KTS 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 33KTS 21KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 71.5W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 73.6W DIRM12 = 72DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 76.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#3 Postby wx247 » Tue Nov 09, 2004 8:33 am

Thanks Luis!!! You called this days ago. :)
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#4 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Nov 09, 2004 8:35 am

WOW! It will be interesting to see the first few hours of the vis loop this morning. I think it is in a relatively favorable location given the water temperatures and especially the outflow opportunities south of the upper low over the Bahamas. The western portions of the convection look a bit sheared now, but the water vapor loop indicates a ridge just east of this morning's mass.
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#5 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Nov 09, 2004 8:40 am

wx247 wrote:Thanks Luis!!! You called this days ago. :)


I agree. Nice job Luis!
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#6 Postby alicia-w » Tue Nov 09, 2004 8:55 am

Good job! But for your sake, I hope it doesnt pan out.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2004 8:56 am

alicia-w wrote:Good job! But for your sake, I hope it doesnt pan out.


Yes you are right about what may happen here with a big rain event.
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#8 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Nov 09, 2004 9:33 am

Wow!! Wow!! Wow!!! I was not expecting this!!! I did expect several small "mini-lows" to form along the trough/frontal boundary and ride up it, but no tropical development!!! Good call Luis! And this is definitely not something you guys in PR, much less the Northern Caribbean Islands need after all the rain you have had this season!!
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2004 9:50 am

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

At above link where you at menu select 91L is the grafic for the 12:00 UTC run of the tropical models.
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2004 9:54 am

Image



No floater image yet for it.It looks like the shear is keeping the deep convection to the east of the low pressure.Image
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Scorpion

#11 Postby Scorpion » Tue Nov 09, 2004 10:10 am

Stupid shear! Relax and give us Otto!!
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#12 Postby StormChasr » Tue Nov 09, 2004 12:11 pm

Stupid shear! Relax and give us Otto!!


Only if Otto makes a house call to Scorpion. :wink:
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