90L invest for southern caribbean wave

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cycloneye
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90L invest for southern caribbean wave

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:39 pm

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

A surprise invest for me as dry air is dominating the caribbean although shear is not hostil.It has to get away from the southamerican coast.
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First model plots for 90L

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:42 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902004) ON 20041025 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041025 1800 041026 0600 041026 1800 041027 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.2N 61.2W 10.7N 63.4W 11.5N 65.1W 12.7N 66.0W
BAMM 10.2N 61.2W 10.6N 63.5W 11.2N 65.4W 11.8N 66.8W
A98E 10.2N 61.2W 10.3N 62.5W 10.4N 64.2W 10.6N 65.8W
LBAR 10.2N 61.2W 10.8N 62.7W 12.1N 63.6W 13.8N 64.2W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 29KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041027 1800 041028 1800 041029 1800 041030 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 65.9W 17.4N 62.8W 20.1N 57.6W 24.3N 48.8W
BAMM 12.6N 67.8W 13.5N 69.7W 14.1N 71.6W 14.7N 73.2W
A98E 10.8N 67.4W 11.1N 70.7W 11.3N 74.2W 11.4N 77.5W
LBAR 15.9N 64.4W 21.3N 62.6W 28.2N 55.3W 37.5N 37.9W
SHIP 36KTS 39KTS 37KTS 34KTS
DSHP 37KTS 40KTS 39KTS 36KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.2N LONCUR = 61.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 57.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:45 pm

Can you show the map?
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:49 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Can you show the map?


I haved looked for grafics but they are not available yet.
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#5 Postby Steve H. » Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:51 pm

You guys are fast! It is an interesting area, but convection is waning. It will have to wait until it gets into the central/western Caribbean to have a chance at any development due to the interference from the large circulation in the western Atlantic, which is currently tearing convection from it. May have a shot, but later in the week. 8-)
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#6 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:01 pm

I think it will develop. High pressure moving in...
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:03 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:I think it will develop. High pressure moving in...


Dry air hostil.

Image[/b]
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:20 pm

I know. But I think with the no shear, and warm water, as well as high pressure coming down, it will be Otto.
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#9 Postby yoda » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:26 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:I know. But I think with the no shear, and warm water, as well as high pressure coming down, it will be Otto.


Wouldn't this cause a wedge scenario? (SF touched on this...)
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#10 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:26 pm

Much to do about nothing ;-)
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#11 Postby senorpepr » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:27 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:I know. But I think with the no shear, and warm water, as well as high pressure coming down, it will be Otto.


I just don't see the conditions adding up for development. I think there are more negative factors than positive. There's a better chance for Don King to shave his head than this to become Otto.

Image
Last edited by senorpepr on Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby Anonymous » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:28 pm

Ok...I was being serious, but even I laughed.
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#13 Postby senorpepr » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:29 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Ok...I was being serious, but even I laughed.


So was I, but I felt a little humor was needed. No reason to have a little fun while discussing meteorology. (Plus a Don King photo in the tropical forum is just too funny!)
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#14 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:40 pm

I agree 110% senor.. And not to be the storm2k party pooper.. But I think 04 is definatly closed.. and THANK GOD
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#15 Postby george_r_1961 » Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:03 pm

Yea Chad I think its over although im not going to go as far to say that nothing will form in the next 5 weeks over the entire Atlantic basin. Unfavorable upper level winds and dry air dominate the region.
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