The 25/00Z update is posted featuring...
* Typhoon (Cat 2) Nock-ten (28W)
Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
Worldwide Tropical Update: 25 October
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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senorpepr
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Besides our featured tropical cyclone(s), we're monitoring the following invest system(s).
Invest 99L
32.9N 60.6W (240mi E of Hamilton, Bermuda)
45 mph; 992 mb / 29.29”
Herbert-Poteat estimates: ST1.5/1.5
99L is separating from its parent system, leaving the old low and occlusion behind. This trailing feature is 99L. The system had deepened overnight and earlier this morning, but since the separation, the low has begun to fill. The system is forecast to move east-northeasterly over the next few days. As it does, the window for subtropical development will slowly shut.
Invest 93E
18.0N 109.1W (310mi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico)
30 mph; 1005 mb / 29.68”
Dvorak estimates: 1.5/1.5
Convection associated with 93E has become more organized and the NHC is looking at this system to potential become a tropical depression over the next couple of days.
Invest 93S
8.5S 63.6E (609mi W of Diego Garcia)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
93S has changed little over the past day. Little convection remains with 93S and conditions are only marginally favorable for development. The JTWC lists a poor chance for development whereas Meteo-France lists none.
Go to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html for the latest satellite imagery.
Invest 99L
32.9N 60.6W (240mi E of Hamilton, Bermuda)
45 mph; 992 mb / 29.29”
Herbert-Poteat estimates: ST1.5/1.5
99L is separating from its parent system, leaving the old low and occlusion behind. This trailing feature is 99L. The system had deepened overnight and earlier this morning, but since the separation, the low has begun to fill. The system is forecast to move east-northeasterly over the next few days. As it does, the window for subtropical development will slowly shut.
Invest 93E
18.0N 109.1W (310mi WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico)
30 mph; 1005 mb / 29.68”
Dvorak estimates: 1.5/1.5
Convection associated with 93E has become more organized and the NHC is looking at this system to potential become a tropical depression over the next couple of days.
Invest 93S
8.5S 63.6E (609mi W of Diego Garcia)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
93S has changed little over the past day. Little convection remains with 93S and conditions are only marginally favorable for development. The JTWC lists a poor chance for development whereas Meteo-France lists none.
Go to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html for the latest satellite imagery.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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TCFA issued for 93E:
Code: Select all
WTPN21 PHNC 250330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 250321ZOCT2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N8 109.5W5 TO 22.0N4
107.9W7 WITHIN THE NEXT 00 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AT 250300Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N9 109.1W1. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.0N9 109.1W1,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO, HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL INCREASED DEEP
CONVECTION AROUND A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260330Z4.//
NNNN
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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93S upgraded to fair.
Code: Select all
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S0
63.8E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0 61.9E6, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS, IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS UPGRADED TO
FAIR.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
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- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
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Here's an update on the Invest systems. Remember to catch out the latest JTWC warning on Typhoon Nock-Ten.
Invest 99L
32.9N 60.6W (240mi E of Hamilton, Bermuda)
45 mph; 992 mb / 29.29”
Herbert-Poteat estimates: ST1.5/1.5
99L is separating from its parent system, leaving the old low and occlusion behind. This trailing feature is 99L. The system had deepened overnight and earlier this morning, but since the separation, the low has begun to fill. The system is forecast to move east-northeasterly over the next few days. As it does, the window for subtropical development will slowly shut.
Invest 93E
19.1N 108.4W (250mi W of Manzanillo, Mexico)
30 mph; 1005 mb / 29.68”
Dvorak estimates: 2.0/2.0
Convection associated with 93E has become more organized and the NHC is looking at this system to become a tropical depression later today. In addition, the JTWC has issued a TCFA on 93E.
Invest 98A
4.0N 68.4E (350mi WNW of Male, Maldives)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
This wave is new on the scope, although it is becoming better organized. Expect to see comment on this system in the JTWC’s bulletin later today.
Invest 93S
8.9S 60.0E (425mi SE of Victoria, Seychelles)
25 mph; 1004 mb / 29.65”
Dvorak estimates: 2.5/2.5
93S has continued to organize while convention is becoming deep and intense. Overall atmospheric conditions are leaning more favorable toward development and satellite indicates a tropical cyclone may be forming. The JTWC has upgraded this area to fair and Meteo-France has begun issuing statements on the disturbance. Expect to see TC 02S within the next 36 hours.
Go to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html for the latest satellite imagery.
Invest 99L
32.9N 60.6W (240mi E of Hamilton, Bermuda)
45 mph; 992 mb / 29.29”
Herbert-Poteat estimates: ST1.5/1.5
99L is separating from its parent system, leaving the old low and occlusion behind. This trailing feature is 99L. The system had deepened overnight and earlier this morning, but since the separation, the low has begun to fill. The system is forecast to move east-northeasterly over the next few days. As it does, the window for subtropical development will slowly shut.
Invest 93E
19.1N 108.4W (250mi W of Manzanillo, Mexico)
30 mph; 1005 mb / 29.68”
Dvorak estimates: 2.0/2.0
Convection associated with 93E has become more organized and the NHC is looking at this system to become a tropical depression later today. In addition, the JTWC has issued a TCFA on 93E.
Invest 98A
4.0N 68.4E (350mi WNW of Male, Maldives)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
This wave is new on the scope, although it is becoming better organized. Expect to see comment on this system in the JTWC’s bulletin later today.
Invest 93S
8.9S 60.0E (425mi SE of Victoria, Seychelles)
25 mph; 1004 mb / 29.65”
Dvorak estimates: 2.5/2.5
93S has continued to organize while convention is becoming deep and intense. Overall atmospheric conditions are leaning more favorable toward development and satellite indicates a tropical cyclone may be forming. The JTWC has upgraded this area to fair and Meteo-France has begun issuing statements on the disturbance. Expect to see TC 02S within the next 36 hours.
Go to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html for the latest satellite imagery.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
The 25/18Z update is posted featuring...
* Tropical Storm Nock-ten (28W)
Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
* Tropical Storm Nock-ten (28W)
Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
0 likes
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Besides our featured tropical cyclone(s), we're monitoring the following invest system(s).
Invest 99L
33.3N 56.8W (460mi E of Hamilton, Bermuda)
35 mph; 992 mb / 29.29”
Herbert-Poteat estimates: ST1.5/1.5
99L just couldn’t do it. The window of opportunity is closing. While a few small circulations are present, none show subtropical characteristics.
Invest 90L
10.2N 61.2W (30mi NNW of Port-of-Spain, Trinidad)
25 mph; 1009 mb / 29.80”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Convection with this wave is somewhat limited. Although shear and water temperatures are favorable for development, proximity to land and tons of dry air will kill off the chances for organization.
Invest 98A
6.6N 64.9E (615mi W of Male, Maldives)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
A weak wave in the Arabian Sea has become a little better organized over the day. The limited factor at this time will be strong vertical shear aloft. The JTWC has this label as a poor risk.
Invest 93S
8.9S 59.2E (295mi SE of Victoria, Seychelles)
25 mph; 1004 mb / 29.65”
Dvorak estimates: 2.0/2.5
93S has changed little over the day, but convection is becoming more cyclic. The JTWC has this area as a fair risk and Meteo-France is still issuing statements on the disturbance. Expect to see TC 02S within the next 36 hours.
Go to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html for the latest satellite imagery.
Invest 99L
33.3N 56.8W (460mi E of Hamilton, Bermuda)
35 mph; 992 mb / 29.29”
Herbert-Poteat estimates: ST1.5/1.5
99L just couldn’t do it. The window of opportunity is closing. While a few small circulations are present, none show subtropical characteristics.
Invest 90L
10.2N 61.2W (30mi NNW of Port-of-Spain, Trinidad)
25 mph; 1009 mb / 29.80”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
Convection with this wave is somewhat limited. Although shear and water temperatures are favorable for development, proximity to land and tons of dry air will kill off the chances for organization.
Invest 98A
6.6N 64.9E (615mi W of Male, Maldives)
15 mph; 1006 mb / 29.71”
Dvorak estimates: Too weak
A weak wave in the Arabian Sea has become a little better organized over the day. The limited factor at this time will be strong vertical shear aloft. The JTWC has this label as a poor risk.
Invest 93S
8.9S 59.2E (295mi SE of Victoria, Seychelles)
25 mph; 1004 mb / 29.65”
Dvorak estimates: 2.0/2.5
93S has changed little over the day, but convection is becoming more cyclic. The JTWC has this area as a fair risk and Meteo-France is still issuing statements on the disturbance. Expect to see TC 02S within the next 36 hours.
Go to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html for the latest satellite imagery.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
The 25/22Z update is posted featuring...
* Tropical Depression Sixteen (16E)
* Tropical Storm Nock-ten (28W)
Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
* Tropical Depression Sixteen (16E)
* Tropical Storm Nock-ten (28W)
Enjoy and feel free to reply back with comments!
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/
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