Cycloneye's 2003 hurricane season outlook

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 01, 2003 7:25 am

This will be my only outlook for the season and a short one because I want the people who may not understand grafics or terminologys to understand in simple words my outlook:

At the bat my outlook for the 2003 season numbers is 14/8/3.

I base that outlook forecast numbers on the majority of the factors that will favor more activity and the main one being the ENSO factor which will be neutral to la nina conditions and this factor alone guarrantees an active season that will compare with 1998.

But other factors must be considered to make a complete outlook and those are azores high,SLPA(Sea LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALYS),the tutt,the QBO winds,sst's.

The azores high will be more weaker than last season and in a more north position and that factor will be favorable.

The SLPA pressures will be low in the caribbean and in parts of the atlantic and that factor will be favorable for more activity in the caribbean.

The TUTT or semipermanent trough in the atlantic will be in a weak stage.

The QBO winds or winds in the very upper atmosphere will be from the east and that will be somewhat of an inhibiting factor but not will totally be unfavorable.

The sst's in the atlantic will be more warmer than last season because of the thermoline circulation that will be active transporting warmer waters from the south atlantic and also there will be less upwelling because the azores high will be weaker and less winds will agitate the waters and transport cooler waters.

This is my short outlook for the 2003 hurricane season but what are you opinions about it?

Amanzi · #2 Postby **Amanzi** » Thu May 01, 2003 8:14 am

Great Forecast Luis!

Thanks, and I look forward to spending this season with you and everyone else here

Steve H. · #3 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu May 01, 2003 9:46 am

Looks good. I had 13/9/3 or 4 earlier in march. I may Up it before June 1st in the named storm category. I am dragging my feet for 3 more weeks to wait on a couple of signals as far as the overall pattern setting up (or not) for the summer. We COULD be low balling this season, as I believe it will be quite active. :roll:

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 01, 2003 9:51 am

Steve if I can ask you what do you mean by low balling?

Steve H. · #5 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu May 01, 2003 12:05 pm

I just mean that our forecast numbers may be low for the season. IMO there is an increasing risk that the number of named storms COULD be higher than we have anticipated.

southerngale · #6 Postby **southerngale** » Thu May 01, 2003 12:15 pm

Great forecast cyc! Only a month away!!

#7 Postby **wx247** » Thu May 01, 2003 2:37 pm

Great forecast Luis. Looks like a busy season ahead.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 01, 2003 3:40 pm

Ok Steve now I understand so you say that my numbers are going to be short and this season will get close to the 1995 season when 19 systems formed?

chadtm80 · #9 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu May 01, 2003 3:44 pm

Think he just means he is starting to think that this will be an active season is all cyc... Nothing personal about what your numbers are :-)

Rainband · #10 Postby **Rainband** » Thu May 01, 2003 3:47 pm

Great Job!! CYC

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 01, 2003 3:53 pm

Thanks to all for the replies but now let's see in reallity what the season will bring.

Chad yes the only question left is how active the season will be and forecasters may differ there in terms of the numbers but overall the consensus is for an active season.

Steve H. · #12 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu May 01, 2003 4:36 pm

Yes, nothing personal intended about your forecast Luis. I think its solid. I'm thinking that it may be more active than we are predicting. It will be interesting to see what Dr. Gray has June 1st. Bet he comes up 1 storm/1 hurricane. :wink:

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 01, 2003 4:44 pm

Yes Consensus in general is for active season but how active is the question and that is where the forecasters may differ.

chadtm80 · #14 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu May 01, 2003 4:45 pm

Bet he comes up 1 storm/1 hurricane.

I agree

rainstorm · #15 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu May 01, 2003 5:49 pm

i am not sure ana forming was a good sign. now we have a second low off ga, though probably not tropical. lets hope we dont have another season of very weak development north of 30. i will make my forecast around 01jun

#16 Postby **wx247** » Thu May 01, 2003 5:54 pm

I don't know if Ana developing was a bad sign. It was an anomoly, but we will have to wait and see.

#17 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu May 01, 2003 6:28 pm

My initial for this season as far as numbers go was 13/8/5 which is what I went with last season. Even though I am going to wait at least a week to issue my "forecast" I will tell you that Luis has a pretty good handle on it already. I need to look at a few more things to tie mine down, but I may end up increasing mine, not because of Ana, but other factors. Steve H's. post is what is making me think I need to up the numbers since I was so close last year and the conditions are definitely more favorable so far this year.

Rainband · #18 Postby **Rainband** » Thu May 01, 2003 6:38 pm

We sure will!!!! :o LET THE CANES!!! BEGIN>>>> :wink:

#19 Postby **Stephanie** » Thu May 01, 2003 7:51 pm

Great forecast Luis! What a season it will be if Steve is right and the numbers everyone is forecasting here are too low! :o

Rainstorm - the season has "started" (I'm using that term loosely :roll:

) rather strangely already hasn't it? It's almost a continuation of last year's storms, though the pattern seems to be going towards La Nina. It'll be interesting, that's for sure!

mf_dolphin · #20 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu May 01, 2003 8:01 pm

I think everyone is on the right track. It sure looks like a busy season ahead. Probably more classic storms this year than last just due to the more favorable conditions in general. If La Nina does form in the August/Sept time frame we could have some storms getting pulled into the western Caribbean. Only time will tell :-)

That's why we love this stuff! :-)

Cycloneye's 2003 hurricane season outlook

Cycloneye's 2003 hurricane season outlook

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