97L still trying to turn subtropical

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cycloneye
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97L still trying to turn subtropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:11 pm

Code: Select all

ABNT20 KNHC 122101
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 12 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 610 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...IS MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD WARMER WATER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


Sat pics show some more convection around the center so let's see as it still sinks southward in latitud what happens.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Oct 14, 2004 4:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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18:00 Models came out very late today

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:52 pm

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL972004) ON 20041012  1800 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041012  1800   041013  0600   041013  1800   041014  0600

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    31.4N  33.4W   30.6N  33.6W   30.3N  33.0W   31.2N  31.7W
  BAMM    31.4N  33.4W   30.9N  33.6W   30.6N  33.6W   30.8N  33.0W
  A98E    31.4N  33.4W   30.5N  33.5W   30.1N  32.8W   30.2N  32.5W
  LBAR    31.4N  33.4W   30.9N  33.4W   31.0N  32.9W   31.4N  32.3W
  SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          42KTS          48KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          42KTS          48KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041014  1800   041015  1800   041016  1800   041017  1800

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    32.8N  31.3W   35.9N  32.1W   39.4N  30.7W   43.0N  18.3W
  BAMM    31.9N  32.0W   35.2N  31.4W   38.8N  30.9W   41.3N  25.2W
  A98E    31.3N  31.0W   32.9N  27.4W   34.8N  23.5W   34.2N  17.8W
  LBAR    31.9N  31.9W   33.4N  31.8W   34.6N  30.9W   35.3N  26.9W
  SHIP        54KTS          64KTS          65KTS          61KTS
  DSHP        54KTS          64KTS          65KTS          61KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  31.4N LONCUR =  33.4W DIRCUR = 190DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
  LATM12 =  32.6N LONM12 =  33.3W DIRM12 = 196DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
  LATM24 =  34.0N LONM24 =  32.4W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


Ship still makes it a minimal hurricane but of course first it has to become subtropical however it is closing as it continues to move southward to the 30n latitud line where the waters are more warmer.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Matthew5

#3 Postby Matthew5 » Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:53 pm

I'm rooting for it to becoming Otto!!! :)
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Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Oct 12, 2004 5:04 pm

It may become Otto soon.. It's been a busy year
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Oct 12, 2004 5:27 pm

Yeah, it's been a busy year, but October has seen a more blocking type pattern with several hybrid systems instead of the truer tropical systems that we saw in August-September ... October has been very El Niño-like, TC wise, and we may be seeing what I am expecting to be a early season shutdown (after what 97L decides on what it's going to do)

SF
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Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Oct 12, 2004 5:38 pm

Could be.. But remember.. In 2003.. we had Nicholas and then Odette and Peter were truthfully post season storms..
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Oct 12, 2004 7:08 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Could be.. But remember.. In 2003.. we had Nicholas and then Odette and Peter were truthfully post season storms..


Yeah, but a totally different synoptic pattern ...

SF
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 12, 2004 7:50 pm

Even though it's disorganized, the convection continues to increase compared to yesterday. Let see if in the next few days it continues to become better organized and becomes OTTO.
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00:00 UTC models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:05 pm

Code: Select all

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL972004) ON 20041013  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041013  0000   041013  1200   041014  0000   041014  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    31.0N  33.3W   30.3N  32.9W   30.9N  31.5W   32.4N  31.0W
  BAMM    31.0N  33.3W   30.7N  33.1W   30.8N  32.5W   31.8N  31.8W
  A98E    31.0N  33.3W   30.6N  32.9W   30.5N  32.0W   30.9N  31.7W
  LBAR    31.0N  33.3W   30.8N  32.8W   31.1N  31.9W   31.8N  31.0W
  SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          47KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          41KTS          47KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041015  0000   041016  0000   041017  0000   041018  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    34.0N  31.5W   36.9N  32.7W   39.8N  31.5W   41.8N  25.0W
  BAMM    33.3N  31.6W   36.5N  32.4W   39.1N  32.1W   40.2N  30.2W
  A98E    32.1N  31.1W   33.4N  28.8W   35.5N  24.7W   35.6N  16.7W
  LBAR    32.7N  30.5W   33.9N  30.5W   34.6N  29.0W   34.6N  25.1W
  SHIP        52KTS          59KTS          60KTS          60KTS
  DSHP        52KTS          59KTS          60KTS          60KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  31.0N LONCUR =  33.3W DIRCUR = 165DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
  LATM12 =  32.0N LONM12 =  33.4W DIRM12 = 184DEG SPDM12 =   6KT
  LATM24 =  33.2N LONM24 =  33.0W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  100NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


To note at this 00:00 UTC run that ship no more goes to hurricane status.
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Convection increasing near low

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:20 pm

Code: Select all

ABNT20 KNHC 130217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 12 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 620 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS...IS MOVING SOUTHWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER WARMER WATER.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


The above is the 10:30 PM TWO.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:55 pm

Organization continues and OTTO is closer then ever to make its first debut in Atlantic Hurricane History.
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#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 13, 2004 5:55 am

Code: Select all

 KNHC 130922
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED OCT 13 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
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5:30 PM EDT TWO

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:14 pm

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285
ABNT20 KNHC 132111
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 625 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS IS MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD.  THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


Still a chance to turn subtropical but the window is closing.
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#14 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:16 pm

Then that "otto" be the end of things... :P
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#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 14, 2004 4:30 pm

Code: Select all

 KNHC 142126
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS IS MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SYSTEM TODAY
...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD
OR NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


97L is on life support now.
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