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Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 6
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 11, 2004
...Nicole soon to be extratropical...
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was
located near latitude 36.0 north... longitude 61.3 west or about
325 miles... 520 km... northeast of Bermuda and about 550
miles...890 km...south of Sable Island Nova Scotia.
Nicole is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph...33 km/hr...and a
turn to the north is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...as
Nicole becomes transformed into an extratropical storm.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles
...415 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...36.0 N... 61.3 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 988 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
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WTNT45 KNHC 111430
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2004
NICOLE IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...STILL
INDICATE SUBTROPICAL STATUS. A REPORT FROM THE SHIP KSDF...TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 45 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB. THE SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING A DISTINCT BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND THEREFORE WILL BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL VERY SOON. NICOLE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR MERGE
WITH...A BAROCLINIC CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NICOLE COULD MAINTAIN
ITS IDENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A FEW DAYS. SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.
LATEST CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT IT APPEARS THAT
THERE HAS BEEN SOME NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. HOWEVER MOST TRACK
GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE LEFT FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD SPEED WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
10Z.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 36.0N 61.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 39.4N 62.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 12/1200Z 41.0N 63.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 13/0000Z 42.0N 63.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 13/1200Z 44.0N 62.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 14/1200Z 48.0N 59.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
But it's hours as a tropical entity are numbered as it will become extratropical.
