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Tropical Storm Matthew has been downgraded since the 09/0900 UTC
advisory...to Tropical Depression Matthew...center near 26.7n
92.6w or about 270 miles southwest of the mouth of the
Mississippi River...09/1500 UTC. T.D. Matthew is moving
north-northeast 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
miatcmat4/wtnt24 knhc for more details. Strong southwesterly
shear removed the convection from the center of circulation and
Matthew has become an elongated swirl of low clouds with most
of the weather within a band located northeast and east of the
center. An Air Force plane will check Matthew this afternoon.
No strengthening is indicated because strong shear is forecast
to persist. The GFDL model insists on intensifying Matthew
despite the shear. Matthew is embedded within strong upper level
southwesterly flow...to the east of a deepening middle to upper
level trough in the central United States and northwestern
Mexico. This pattern continues to create strong shear over
Matthew. Scattered to numerous strong showers and thunderstorms
from 23.5n to 25n between 89w and 92w...and from 26.5n to 28.5n
between 88.5w and 92w. Isolated moderate to locally strong
showers elsewhere in the southwestern corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Locally heavy rain is likely within this area during
the weekend prior to the arrival of Matthew late Sunday/early
Monday...given the steady stream of tropical moisture surging
northward and the improving middle to upper level dynamics
associated with the trough. Local NWS offices in fact have
issued flood watches/warnings from Louisiana to the Florida
Panhandle in anticipation of this event.