10 AM CDT=Matthew downgraded to a TD

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cycloneye
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10 AM CDT=Matthew downgraded to a TD

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:35 am

Code: Select all

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on October 09, 2004


...Matthew becomes a little less organized....
 
at 10 am CDT...1500z...the poorly center of Tropical Depression
Matthew was located near latitude 26.7 north...longitude  92.6 west
or about  270 miles...southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi
River.
 
The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph with higher
gusts.  These winds are confined to the northeast and east of the
center.  No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 24 hours.
 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
 
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...26.7 N... 92.6 W.  Movement
toward...north-northeast near 10 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...35
mph.  Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
For information specific to your area...please monitor products
issued by your local weather office.
 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 PM CDT.
 
Forecaster Avila
 
$$



No surprise at all for me since early this morning I estimated it was a TD and weakening more.
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dixiebreeze
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#2 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:38 am

Good news for GOM folks, Luis. Thanks for the info.
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#3 Postby lilbump3000 » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:38 am

It also looks like the storm is making a come back and to me it looks like they should have kept it a tropical storm as the center now has some thunderstorms near/over it.
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Rainband

#4 Postby Rainband » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:38 am

Good news 8-)
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:39 am

Code: Select all


WTNT44 KNHC 091432
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004
 
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMOVED THE CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND MATTHEW HAS BECOME AN ELONGATED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER WITHIN A BAND LOCATED NORTHEAST AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS REACH TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AGAIN IN HEAVY SQUALLS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK
MATTHEW THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST...NO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE GFDL INSISTS
ON INTENSIFYING MATTHEW DESPITE THE SHEAR.

ONCE AGAIN...GLOBAL MODELS HAD THE CORRECT IDEA. MATTHEW IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 9 KNOTS...AS INDICATED BY
GLOBAL MODELS...AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS DEVELOPING
OVER EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED WESTWARD IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH
THE LOUSIANA COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE HEAVY
RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
CENTER.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 26.7N  92.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 28.0N  91.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 30.0N  91.3W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 32.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 34.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND
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Opal storm

#6 Postby Opal storm » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:40 am

It's dead,nothing more than a rain event.
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#7 Postby AussieMark » Sat Oct 09, 2004 9:43 am

would this depression come anywhere near areas which have been saturated from a summer of Tropical systems.
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Stormcenter
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Re: 10 AM CDT=Matthew downgraded to a TD

#8 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Oct 09, 2004 10:05 am

cycloneye wrote:

Code: Select all

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on October 09, 2004


...Matthew becomes a little less organized....
 
at 10 am CDT...1500z...the poorly center of Tropical Depression
Matthew was located near latitude 26.7 north...longitude  92.6 west
or about  270 miles...southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi
River.
 
The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24
hours.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph with higher
gusts.  These winds are confined to the northeast and east of the
center.  No significant change in strength is forecast during the
next 24 hours.
 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
 
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...26.7 N... 92.6 W.  Movement
toward...north-northeast near 10 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...35
mph.  Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.
For information specific to your area...please monitor products
issued by your local weather office.
 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
4 PM CDT.
 
Forecaster Avila
 
$$



No surprise at all for me since early this morning I estimated it was a TD and weakening more.


Maybe a bit premature based on satellite and buoy reports.
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Scorpion

#9 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 09, 2004 10:07 am

This thing is weaker than an afternoon T-storm typical of FL. This is a non-event.
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Josephine96

#10 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Oct 09, 2004 10:13 am

Sounds like nothing more than a rainmaker.. Feel free to read my forecast
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