First model plots for 95L at 00:00 UTC

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cycloneye
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First model plots for 95L at 00:00 UTC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:41 pm

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (AL952004) ON 20041007  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          041007  0000   041007  1200   041008  0000   041008  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    21.0N  95.8W   22.5N  96.0W   24.2N  95.0W   26.0N  92.8W
  BAMM    21.0N  95.8W   22.1N  96.7W   23.2N  96.9W   24.2N  96.2W
  A98E    21.0N  95.8W   21.9N  95.7W   22.8N  95.4W   23.6N  94.8W
  LBAR    21.0N  95.8W   22.4N  96.1W   23.8N  96.2W   25.2N  96.0W
  SHIP        25KTS          32KTS          41KTS          47KTS
  DSHP        25KTS          32KTS          41KTS          47KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          041009  0000   041010  0000   041011  0000   041012  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    27.7N  90.0W   30.9N  83.0W   30.7N  73.9W   28.7N  61.7W
  BAMM    25.0N  94.5W   27.0N  90.9W   30.4N  88.6W   33.4N  86.0W
  A98E    24.5N  93.9W   28.1N  91.3W   32.1N  87.7W   34.3N  82.4W
  LBAR    26.1N  95.5W   26.9N  94.0W   28.2N  92.3W   28.9N  89.6W
  SHIP        51KTS          48KTS          36KTS          19KTS
  DSHP        51KTS          48KTS          36KTS          27KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  21.0N LONCUR =  95.8W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
  LATM12 =  20.0N LONM12 =  95.8W DIRM12 = 354DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
  LATM24 =  19.5N LONM24 =  95.8W
  WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


This was fast to come out after the invest came up.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:11 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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#2 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:42 pm

Seems like the ships are calling for a 60 mph tropical storm.
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Re: More breaking news:First model plots for 95L at 00:00 UT

#3 Postby Ixolib » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:

This was fast to come out after the invest came up.


Any thoughts on why it came up so fast?
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#4 Postby OtherHD » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:48 pm

Those aren't ships...SHIPS stands for Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:50 pm

Well generally they put out the model guidance plots of the tropical models sometimes before an invest is up and sometimes they do it just after the invest comes.
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#6 Postby lilbump3000 » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:50 pm

I know the models did come out so fast. You never know they might been had them ready to come out.
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#7 Postby alicia-w » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:51 pm

???
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#8 Postby Downdraft » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:52 pm

Remember models are only interesting not really useful till they have a center to initialize on. Without a center they really only give you a feel not a good look.
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#9 Postby JenyEliza » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:52 pm

Is this the birth of Matthew? :?:
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:53 pm

But the important thing is that they are out with the plots and the time they come out is not important.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:53 pm

JenyEliza wrote:Is this the birth of Matthew? :?:


I surely believe so. :lol:
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#12 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:55 pm

They usually underestimate windspeed. With this one though and the shear they could be right...
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#13 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:04 pm

WooT party we have an invest!! Finally time to break this tropical quietness.
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#14 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:21 pm

Earl in 98.......

Image


Check the BAMD, exact track as Earl's in 98!
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#15 Postby Agua » Wed Oct 06, 2004 9:44 pm

Yes! Right to you Dean!!
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