Quick question???

[tano68]

I want to ask if the "blob" in the gulf (I don't know what else to call it at this point, sorry!) is going to move to the upper Tx coast this week or if it will go into La. I'm confused . If I read the Hou/Galv NWS discussion it mentions very heavy rainfall for the area later this week from this thing. But if you go to the La/NO NWS discussion it also mentions the same. Which one is it? OR do they know? Why do they forecast the same for 2 different areas?

The reason I'm asking is I'm supposed to be on the road to La this weekend and I would like to know if I should postpone going. I hate driving in rain, especially heavy flooding rain!

I think I might be suffering from TMI (too much information)!!

Thanks, Tano

[TS Zack]

It will stay just offshore or right along the coast of Texas. Then move towards the Northeast and move in around Central to Southeastern Louisiana. From Southern Texas to Alabama and even further East will see a heavy rain threat.

[Cookiely]

This is from the Tampa discussion. Apparently it will continue along the coast and exit in the Atlantic.
.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT - TUE)...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL CHANGES
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR OUR AREA AS SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE GULF AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH KEEPS MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. THEREAFTER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY IN THE WAY THE GULF LOW IS HANDLED. LATEST GFS RUN AT
12Z BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT LOW INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AREA ON
SUNDAY WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS ALLOWS
WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH/COLD FRONT
FEATURE TRAILING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF FROM THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM
THEN MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...BRINGING WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND IT WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS WERE SLOWER...AND DIDN'T WEAKEN THE HIGH AS QUICKLY...
WHICH LEFT EASTERLY WINDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GFS TYPICALLY OVER-DOES THESE GULF LOWS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN THE LOW IS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN INITIALLY...WILL LEAN
TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION WITH STRONGER RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THUS...
GOING TO STICK WITH EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT MONDAY...
THEN TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A SLOWER/WEAKER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
IF THE 12Z GFS SHOULD VERIFY...WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON ABOUT MID-WEEK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY.