Circulation In Gulf?

[lilbump3000]

Does anybody see some spinning in the clouds just north of the 20N south of the covection?

[lilbump3000]

If you go to the link below click on animation then about 20 Loops and for quality put 100% and click on the mess in the gulf and once loaded it speed it up some and it seems that there is some type of spin just south of the convection

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Hurricane Derek]

Looks like a little spin around 20N 95W. It will be interesting to see as this weak low moves further N if it can develop a surface low. It's possible that a strong depression or weak T.S. could form within the next 2 days and hit the Mid Texas Coast and then go back out into the NW Gulf Friday and head into New Orleans. This seems like the setup suggested by several computer models. Either way, lots of rain in my neck of the woods in SE Texas through Friday. Keep in mind with the stalled front back up into a warm front and a upper level low to be near Dallas, will be interesting to watch.

[Cookiely]

Isn't the spin anticyclonic?

[stormcloud]

There is still a formidable amount of shear in the southwest Gulf. That would point to inverted trough or possibly a hybrid system developing.

[GalvestonDuck]

Dang it, Ivan hasn't died yet?


KIDDING! I know better.

[LaBreeze]

Local met mentioned all of the moisture and said that it could lead to a "volatile" situation off of the SE Texas and SW Louisiana coasts in a couple of days. Still said that it should be "mainly a rain event".

[Noah]

it forms? and also any carribean development that was there looks gone now.

[PurdueWx80]

There is definitely a low-level circulation down there, because the Cu are being directed cyclonically into the convection, and there are hints of rotation in the entire cloud mass. It looks like the low advertised by the models has finally developed. I don't think there is any doubt as to if it becomes tropical, it's just a matter of when (or if the NHC recognizes it as tropical). I don't see the shear as being a problem in the southern Gulf - it's further north where the westerlies are much stronger. Those should relax eventually. Still, this should be more of a rainmaker than anything, which will a blessing to many of you in TX and LA.

[hurricanemike]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Looking at the wind shear graphic, it appaears it will be initially subtropical due to the strong W'ly winds aloft and the nearby stationary frontal boundary.

[PurdueWx80]

Can you post the link, the image option didn't seem to work. I was just looking at simple upper level winds and not the actual shear product.

[Noah]

There is definitely a low-level circulation down there, because the Cu are being directed cyclonically into the convection, and there are hints of rotation in the entire cloud mass. It looks like the low advertised by the models has finally developed. I don't think there is any doubt as to if it becomes tropical, it's just a matter of when (or if the NHC recognizes it as tropical). I don't see the shear as being a problem in the southern Gulf - it's further north where the westerlies are much stronger. Those should relax eventually. Still, this should be more of a rainmaker than anything, which will a blessing to many of you in TX and LA.

..

If it forms, do you think it will come florida's way?

[lilbump3000]

Looks like we have a nice rotation inside the deep convection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Do a closeup animation.