12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

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Dean4Storms
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12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:36 pm

The thing that bothers me here is that it's too consistant but has a history of under-developing TC's this season......


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html
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Re: 12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

#2 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:53 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:The thing that bothers me here is that it's too consistant but has a history of under-developing TC's this season......


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html


i wouldnt start putting the shutters up yet based on its performance this year beyond 48 hours.
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Re: 12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

#3 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:03 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:The thing that bothers me here is that it's too consistant but has a history of under-developing TC's this season......


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html


True.. but with it being the GFS...
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#4 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:07 pm

Isn't this one of the NHC's favorite models?
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#5 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:16 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Isn't this one of the NHC's favorite models?


do you think its going to go up towards texas?
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#6 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:19 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Isn't this one of the NHC's favorite models?


That and the GFDL... :P
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Re: 12z run of GFS.....Not Good..........

#7 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:21 pm

yoda wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:The thing that bothers me here is that it's too consistant but has a history of under-developing TC's this season......


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html


True.. but with it being the GFS...


If this was just one run, I'd agree about the GFS this season. But, this is like the 5th run or so that it has initialized a low developing so I take it more seriously. Secondly, we have several other models also doing the same.
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#8 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:36 pm

The NHC loves the GFS and their precious GFDL very much. I guess something could form in the GOM so if something doesnt form in the next 1-2 days its gonna be interesting.

<RICKY>
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Oct 05, 2004 4:30 pm

The 12z GFS is developing a weak SFC low in response to a digging s/w in the SW states which generally shunts E and NE with another s/w digging behind it ... if you look at the 500mb levels, you'll see during the development of the SFC low, at the 500mb level, SW winds encompass the entire envelope of the system ...

However, with that said, it still could be a significant rainmaker with a tropical tap from the E PAC ...

SF
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#10 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Tue Oct 05, 2004 5:19 pm

It definitely looks very wet with this system. It maybe more subtropical than tropical, but that's my guessimate right now. Definitely something for Texas.
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