Can anyone offer insight?

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Canebo
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Can anyone offer insight?

#1 Postby Canebo » Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:11 am

I have a question about the accuracy of weather forecasters. This primarily deals with TV forecasters, but if anyone can offer insight,it would be helpful. I realize weather forecasting is just that, a forecast. It can be very difficult to predict variables that I cannot even begin to understand, and I have a great deal of respect for those that do. However, forecasters suffer a great deal of second guessing and public scrutiny since so many rely on them for many things ( fishing trips, outdoor parties, watering schedules, etc).
Is there an acceptable error level? For example, if a baseball player gets a hit 3 out of 10 times he is a success. A basketball player sinks 4 our of 10 and ditto. When a met predicts a 70% chance of rain for 2 straight days for an area and we basically get only sun and clouds, does his boss question him?
I know in years past, most of the TV weathermen were not mets by trade, but TV personalities who looked good on the tube and could read whatever weather service reports they subscribed to. I'm sure it has changed now, but I'm not sure they are doing any better job interpreting the data than if they just subscribed to a local forecasting service and passed that info along.
At any point do their bosses say, "Wow, you really blew that one. Get it right more often or we will be looking elsewhere for a new met."
Once again, I'm not slamming the mets, just curious how it works behind the scenes. Forecasting has to be one of the most difficult jobs around, and Mother Nature is a fickle woman.
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