BIGTIME Concern

[MWatkins]

I really believe this system will be inland in 48 hours or so.

I think that folks all along the FL East Coast may be thinking of the situation with Frances and are thinking that they have more time than they really do. This is the reason for my BIGTIME concern.

In fact...the UKMET brings the hurricane inland between the 36 and 48 hour time frame. The GFS and NOGAPS are almost identical to the previous runs and have this thing inland between 48 and 60 hours.

As a first stab...and I will revise this tomorrow if I have to...I believe landfall will be between 25.5N and 27.5N....with a leaning to the northerly end of that scale.

The UKMET making the Gulf and the NOGAPS solution up the peninsula...as well as the GFS weakening the ridge to soon...are the reasons I am leaning this way...

So far my 48 hour calls on systems have been luckily close (see Charley, Ivan and Frances). I really hope that I am WAY off on this one.

MW

[yoda]

Well I really don't think this makes it into the GOM.

[Tertius]

Since i AM AT 26.5 N latitude, on Military Trail, I hope you are wrong as well Mike. Hope won't stop Jeanne though, so the shutters go back up this AM. Battening hatches and securing the decks, that's the order of the day.

[Dmetal81]

MW, I was wondering the same thing earlier to day. With such a strong high pressure coming into play it should allow here to move more quickly, and shes really not all that far away as hurricanes go. A few knots faster could really decrease preparation time. Speaking with my parents in Daytona today they said they really werent going to worry about it until saturday (they still have a TON of supplies from Charlie/Frances) and continue to evaluation the situation. All central florida schools are scheduled to be open tomorrow. Everyone seems to be dependent on the idea that she wont affect them until late saturday. Even more concerning is the "I survived two, why not three" attitude in the central florida area. Many people I talked to down there today were under the opinion that its "not that big of a deal", that because they've gone through 2 relatively unscathed this year regarding property damage and such, a third one should be no problem... I hate to say it, but even if she comes in weak, she could be more deadly just because of this attitude.

[jlauderdal]

Since i AM AT 26.5 N latitude, on Military Trail, I hope you are wrong as well Mike. Hope won't stop Jeanne though, so the shutters go back up this AM. Battening hatches and securing the decks, that's the order of the day.

26.1 and a touch east of federal...IF most people didn;t still have some shutters up this part of the state would be severly underprepared. during frances everyone started talking about tuesday...as of laste yesterday afternoon people were just starting to talk about the what if's of jeanne here. IF this thing comes into dade, broward or southern palm beach the residents of dade and broward will be lucky to have the proper preps in place. 2 hours for me to put on the few shutters that were taken down and take in the pool furniture, everything else in place but i am not kidding people in broward and dade were not really aware of jeanne.

[Tertius]

Since i AM AT 26.5 N latitude, on Military Trail, I hope you are wrong as well Mike. Hope won't stop Jeanne though, so the shutters go back up this AM. Battening hatches and securing the decks, that's the order of the day.

26.1 and a touch east of federal...IF most people didn;t still have some shutters up this part of the state would be severly underprepared. during frances everyone started talking about tuesday...as of laste yesterday afternoon people were just starting to talk about the what if's of jeanne here. IF this thing comes into dade, broward or southern palm beach the residents of dade and broward will be lucky to have the proper preps in place. 2 hours for me to put on the few shutters that were taken down and take in the pool furniture, everything else in place but i am not kidding people in broward and dade were not really aware of jeanne.

I hear ya jlauderdal. You say that Broward seems complacent. Did Frances near miss there cause people to think they are somehow immune? You are right, this isn't Frances. If they don't prepare right now they aren't going to make it at all.

I noticed a few things while I was out and about today. First, normally when there is a storm scare around here the stores get extra stock in advance and put it all out right up front where the vultures can descend easily on it. Not this time. They are still understocked from Frances and there is no source for more since most of the standard supplies went to the gulf coast last week. Those who are lacking the basics like batteries, camping supplies, extra water, and some other items will be absolutely unable to find them by tomorrow at all. As for generators, just forget it. As far as I know there isn't one for sale in Palm Beach county anywhere, for any price. (If anyone knows of a secret stash somewhere, do share!)

I also noticed this enormous line at Home Depot for plywood etc. and I had to wonder why. I mean, Frances was just days ago, did they not get any then?

I also anticipate that wherever Jeanne does land there will be problems afterward that aren't typical. The normal supplies of ice and water and food that get shipped in will likely be in even shorter supply than normal. There simply isn't any left in the warehouses anymore. It will need to be acquired anew, and the funding isn't in place for it.

Furthermore, what of the extra assistance getting the electricity and phones back running? FPL is overtaxed already and I don't think the grid here in PBC is much more than a tenuous skeleton that needs reinforcing. Any available outside help is already on the gulf coast cleaning up after Ivan the First. It could get ugly.

[anjou]

I think burnout and disbelief may be at work here too... there may be some realization that the storm poses a danger but I doubt anyone is getting the adrenaline rush that moved them to do something about the first one. Or two. Or three.

[T'Bonz]

Uh, Broward is aware. I went out to the store last night. People were buying canned meats, and non-perishables.

Plus, there was MUCH more traffic than usual on a Thursday night AND the gas stations were very, very busy.

We had left our plywood up since Frances. Good thing....

Dammit, I have Steelers-Dolphins tickets for Sunday. *grr* (Steelers fan)

[ColdFront77]

As a first stab...and I will revise this tomorrow if I have to...I believe landfall will be between 25.5N and 27.5N....with a leaning to the northerly end of that scale.

In fact...the UKMET brings the hurricane inland between the 36 and 48 hour time frame. The GFS and NOGAPS are almost identical to the previous runs and have this thing inland between 48 and 60 hours.

As of 11:00 PM Eastern, the center of Jeanne was the following distance from the
Florida east coast at 27.5°N, 26.5°N and 25.5°N:

27.5°N: 595 miles
26.5°N: 574 miles
25.5°N: 596 miles


Going by a "b-line" movement, Jeanne will make landfall at these average speeds
in the next 48 to 60 hours:

27.5°N: between 9.9 and 12.4 mph
26.5°N: between 9.6 and 12.0 mph
25.5°N: between 9.9 and 12.4 mph

[StrongWind]

You're right about those utility repair crews Tertius. Even the help from out of state is completely overtaxed. Ffirst they had to deal with damage from Charlie. Then Frances. Currently Ivan. They've been pulled from all over and run all over Fla. And don't forget all the problems in the mid-atlantic states!

[fci]

It does seem that the word has been very slow to get out about this threat.
The models suddenly changed at about 7 PM on Wednesday.
With Frances, we had the Hurricane Watch on Warnings much earlier.
Granted that we are so much more prepared now than then; it still seems to be late.
I saw a lot of reaction today in Palm Beach County with the gas lines 20- 40 cars long and propane selling out.
Glad I got gas early Thuirsday morning and got the tanks filled/exchanged.

[ericinmia]

Yeah. In miami-dade, broward the majority of the people are still prepared for Ivan, and Frances, and Charley... So people still have good stock in general, the only thing is the people who didn't prepare for the others are screwed for Jeanne. There is very short supply of most anything from shutter/plywood to food to gasoline. When i walk in publix i sometimes feel as though i am living in a third world country.

Luckily i still have my 25 hours worth of shutters still up, and all the supplies i could need.
Talking to people today about this.... they seem not to care, or rather not hear about another storm heading our way.
I heard that watches will go up most likely around 5am and mabye warnings as early as 11pm tomorrow.
-Eric

[fci]

11 PM or 11 AM??

[yoda]

11 PM or 11 AM??

Watches will be up in the morning.... Warnings by afternoon.