From looking at the satellite, looks like Jeanne has lost most of her convection--still a very well defined eye but overall, not much in the way of high tops-No reds-few oranges-just mostly Blues and some Yellows... Does this mean that there is little Precip ocurring with this storm and its mostly just wind?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Jeanne looks Weak on satellite
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There is some heavier precip, but not a ton right now. The winds at flight level most likely do not reduce to 90% since there is not heavy precip to pull the strong winds down. Winds currently probably less than 105. However this will be brief and the reason is simply that the cane is running over its upwelling from the past few days.
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Hurricane Cheese
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I believe the reason for Jeanne's cooler cloud tops is that she is currently over cooler SSTs.
The warm mid-80s SSTs are closer to the bahamas. When she reaches those she may explode ala Ivan when he hit the GOM eddy...!
The warm mid-80s SSTs are closer to the bahamas. When she reaches those she may explode ala Ivan when he hit the GOM eddy...!
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NorthGaWeather
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djti
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Anonymous
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NorthGaWeather
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djti
rh's once frances moved towards the bahamas were fairly high.......it was all shear not allowing the inner core to reform.......no eyewall.
i did just read some reports noting the dry air in frances......still think it mostly was due to shear.....either way....im pretty sure that in previous discussions the NHC has made mention of the dry environment that jeanne is/willbe in.
i did just read some reports noting the dry air in frances......still think it mostly was due to shear.....either way....im pretty sure that in previous discussions the NHC has made mention of the dry environment that jeanne is/willbe in.
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Hurricane Cheese
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Shear is what killed Frances.
No shear is anticipated with Jeanne.
NHC indicates a favorable environment until landfall once it reaches the warm SSTs.
Remember what Ivan did when he reached the eddy!!!!!
No shear is anticipated with Jeanne.
NHC indicates a favorable environment until landfall once it reaches the warm SSTs.
Remember what Ivan did when he reached the eddy!!!!!
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"If we are afraid to be different...how can we make a difference in the world?"
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
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Scorpion
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djti
he never got that high again...but he did drop from around 941 before the eddy....down to 930 or so during.......who knows if thats why....but i do know that the difference in the storm from the morning of landfall to the afternoon was extreme......eddy? who knows...much like the "gulf stream" the now famous "eddy" is something thats probably a little overplayed.
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Hurricane Cheese
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Yes, I'm more referring to the mb drop Ivan had when he reached the eddy.
Ivan dropped about 10 mb over the course of an afternoon. However he didn't allow the time for the winds to really catch up, as he was 135 mph when he crossed the eddy down to 130 mph at the coastline.
But the mb drop was significant, and will be something to watch for w/ Jeanne.
Ivan dropped about 10 mb over the course of an afternoon. However he didn't allow the time for the winds to really catch up, as he was 135 mph when he crossed the eddy down to 130 mph at the coastline.
But the mb drop was significant, and will be something to watch for w/ Jeanne.
Last edited by Hurricane Cheese on Thu Sep 23, 2004 8:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
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clueless newbie
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Ivan looked pitiful choked with dry air before reaching the eddy. He gained almost Cat5 look there, stopping the weakening trend. If there was no eddy, he would have been week Cat2 at landfall at best.
Frances was sheared badly and lost organization. It took her ages to reorganize, fortunately she got her act together just before the landfall, so she did not have time to strenghten.
Jeanne has very good structure, but she is choked by dry air. No shear at all visible. With good structure, she could intensify quickly if favorable conditions occur (warmer water, more moisture in surrounding air). At this moment, it is impossible to predict how strong she would be. Given her history of surviving in difficult conditions, it is very likely she will be remembered in Florida or whenever she landfalls again.
Frances was sheared badly and lost organization. It took her ages to reorganize, fortunately she got her act together just before the landfall, so she did not have time to strenghten.
Jeanne has very good structure, but she is choked by dry air. No shear at all visible. With good structure, she could intensify quickly if favorable conditions occur (warmer water, more moisture in surrounding air). At this moment, it is impossible to predict how strong she would be. Given her history of surviving in difficult conditions, it is very likely she will be remembered in Florida or whenever she landfalls again.
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