Bryan Norcross on Ivan return and Jeanne BOTH into florida?

[DAVE440]

Heard lots of name dropping on the board but not much about Bryan Norcross from here in S. Florida.

Saw him at 5pm and here's his take.


Norcross said Ivan winds are affecting Jeanne (what I posted earlier and thought westerly shear) as well as the mountains. At 5pm Jeanne was 35mph and wnw at 9.

He said the high pressure thats supposed to move in from the west may drive Ivan from the atlantic back SW towards Florida...and it could possibly strenthen again and reform into something.

Also....if that happens Ivan regaining strength and moving SW as a low could affect Jeanne and prevent it from strengthening too much or turn it more north before reaching the US coast. ...ORRRRR........

Jeanne could strenghten some (if it survives) and keep Ivan from getting any stronger as it moves SW....ORRRR......

A final ....unlikely but possible scenario...is Ivan returns as a low or reformed system to some extent....but is slow enuf or weak enuf to allow Jeannes approach first....and BOTH end up hitting Florida.

Again...POSSIBLE....BUT... UNLIKELY....

Either way he said the 2 systems don't interact well....and with so much going on its hard to say what will happen.

I don't know about recent vortex readings..since not verified yet...but last IR sat around 6pm Jeanne looked to be getting some more convection in the NW quadrant so possibly regaining some strength.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

[Frank P]

""I don't know about recent vortex readings..since not verified yet...but last IR sat around 6pm Jeanne looked to be getting some more convection in the NW quadrant so possibly regaining some strength""

Not sure what you meant by this... here is the link to the vortex message....how much verification do you want?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/URNT12.0409172233

and you must have meant convection in the NE quad, no convection in the NW quad...

[Aquawind]

Yeah NW quad is a whole different story..then it's bucking the shear or less shear..not good..

[amawea]

You should see Joe Bastardi's new forecast. Has Ivan back over Atlantic strenthening a bit, then s.w maybe over Fla. and Jeanne escaping into the central Gulf.
Amawea

[DAVE440]

Actually I did mean NW. The cloud tops seemed to have been getting sheared earlier and there wasn't much convection on the west side of the storm. In the loop I was referring to (at the time) there were indications of red developing on the NW quad as if the shear was relaxing on the west side a bit (winds from Ivan). Still looking good at midnight here. Not textbook by any means...but she's hanging on.

Curious why all the models have shifted to the right when so much is still dependent on Ivan and the High building in from the west. I'm sure it's just temporary. That cone gets mighty large and uncertain a few days down the road.