Also to note is Karl is bombing, out over the Eastern Atlantic. Which happen to Ivan...Yes I know it is 30 millibars with in about 24 hours for a tropical cyclone to be bombing. But if a storm go's from 35 mph to 55 mph with in a 12 hour period. That is quastionble...Ivan bombed much faster! The models are still trending to the north...But the deep layer Lbar has trended westward. The Lbar is a tropical Atlantic model(To be used for 20 to 50 west below 20 north.) So that is a model to watch...The Globals mostly show this going north when the trough picks it up around 45 to 50 west...But remember how much better the CMC(Canada model did with Ivan,Frances) It shows the system just to the north of the leewards at the end of the forecast period. So this is in no way a fish just yet. I'm going to say 140 mph max...
A side note is the Gfdl did not do good on both Frances/Ivan...Both the Gfdl in most of the other Global models...They are back grounded with the Gfs. While the newest Ecmwf doe's show this being picked up. Which it did do a fair job with Frances...The CMC was the best overall with Ivan...So this storm is very likely going to be picked up by the trough. But it is not set in stone...
As for Jeanne, I expect it to stay very close if not just inland. The DR/Hati...Death tolls could get up near the distrabance/depression on May 24...Which killed 3,300 people. The models are trending south with a stronger area of high pressure forecasted to form just to the north. I say a central Florida. But a keys to south Florida is looking more likely. Landfall it should be around a cat2 hurriacane 105 mph...The enviroment looks to be favable...The latest 85z data shows the center of the cyclone over DR. In not over water which many have throught. The center is also on the southwest side of the deep convection...There is also something to be noted to this is if it stays over the DR/Hati(More will die!)It might even weaken to a very weak tropical storm.
We will have to watch that little system the Globals been trying to form behind Karl...
Thats my thinking at the moment...
My tropical cyclone thinking as of Sept 17 2004
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Re: My tropical cyclone thinking as of Sept 17 2004
Matthew5 wrote:Also to note is Karl is bombing, out over the Eastern Atlantic. Which happen to Ivan...Yes I know it is 30 millibars with in about 24 hours for a tropical cyclone to be bombing. But if a storm go's from 35 mph to 55 mph with in a 12 hour period. That is quastionble...Ivan bombed much faster! The models are still trending to the north...But the deep layer Lbar has trended westward. The Lbar is a tropical Atlantic model(To be used for 20 to 50 west below 20 north.) So that is a model to watch...The Globals mostly show this going north when the trough picks it up around 45 to 50 west...But remember how much better the CMC(Canada model did with Ivan,Frances) It shows the system just to the north of the leewards at the end of the forecast period. So this is in no way a fish just yet. I'm going to say 140 mph max...
A side note is the Gfdl did not do good on both Frances/Ivan...Both the Gfdl in most of the other Global models...They are back grounded with the Gfs. While the newest Ecmwf doe's show this being picked up. Which it did do a fair job with Frances...The CMC was the best overall with Ivan...So this storm is very likely going to be picked up by the trough. But it is not set in stone...
As for Jeanne, I expect it to stay very close if not just inland. The DR/Hati...Death tolls could get up near the distrabance/depression on May 24...Which killed 3,300 people. The models are trending south with a stronger area of high pressure forecasted to form just to the north. I say a central Florida. But a keys to south Florida is looking more likely. Landfall it should be around a cat2 hurriacane 105 mph...The enviroment looks to be favable...The latest 85z data shows the center of the cyclone over DR. In not over water which many have throught. The center is also on the southwest side of the deep convection...There is also something to be noted to this is if it stays over the DR/Hati(More will die!)It might even weaken to a very weak tropical storm.
We will have to watch that little system the Globals been trying to form behind Karl...
Thats my thinking at the moment...
if your track verifies you get lixion avilas job at nhc as he has this thing going way north of yours.
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