Ivan Heads for the Gulf Coast

[donsutherland1]

At 7 pm, Hurricane Ivan was centered at 28.8N 88.2W and heading almost north. Such a track will continue to bring him ashore near or perhaps just to the west of Mobile Bay.

His central pressure had fallen to 931 mb and his top winds remained at 135 mph.

Over 12-hour increments, Ivan has tracked as follows:

Hurricane Ivan’s Track:

12-Hour Period Ended:
9/15 12z: 337°
9/15 15z: 343°
9/15 18z: 343°
9/15 21z: 346°
9/15 23z: 353° (11 hours)

My ideas concerning Ivan's track from Monday night:

22.5N 85.7W Actual: 22.5N 85.8W
25.0N 87.1W Actual: 25.0N 87.1W
27.5N 87.7W Actual: 27.5N 88.1W
30.0N 88.0W
31.5N 87.9W

Adjusted points per latest information:
30.0N 88.1W
31.5N 87.9W

Barring any major changes, these will be my final refinements. Remarkably, the overall track appears likely to turn out almost the same as that outlined Monday night.

[donsutherland1]

One additional note:

As Hurricane Ivan approaches and makes landfall, the tide will be rising at Mobile Bay, Alabama. High tide will occur at 2:23 am CDT.

[BayouVenteux]

One additional note:

As Hurricane Ivan approaches and makes landfall, the tide will be rising at Mobile Bay, Alabama. High tide will occur at 2:23 am CDT.

It was stated in one of the HWOs from the Mobile NWS office this morning that the worst case scenario would be for the center of Ivan to come ashore just west of the bay in Mobile County. It is estimated that this position could push a storm surge moving into the northern end of the bay (where the city of Mobile is located) on the order of anywhere from 16-18 feet or more.

Not good.

[donsutherland1]

Hopefully, Ivan can lurch to the east just before landfall so as to avoid that disastrous track.