5 PM JEANNE... WNW 9, WINDS 70 MPH, 991 MB, H. Watch=BAHAMAS

[yoda]

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the government of the Bahamas has issued a
Hurricane Watch for the southeastern Bahamas...including the
Acklins...Crooked Island...the Inaguas...Mayaguana...and the Ragged
Islands...as well as for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[Josephine96]

Still a tropical storm then.. and it's actually gained 1mph in speed. Maybe it'll accelerate just a tad

[yoda]

DISCUSSION -- http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html

5 day track -- http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[Josephine96]

Track still shitfing right.. Must not be worried too much about the ridge yet.. I would have expected a shift left

[stormernie]

While I believe that the NHC does a excellent job of forecasting these storms I also believe that they are really downplaying the intensity of the High.

The NHC 5PM track looks rather suspicious given the turn to the north, while this may happen I believe that once Ivan comes ashore and dimishes than we will see the track shift back to the west. Once again as the case was at 11 AM the FSU models are being discounted and I just wonder why that is?

Finally, if we look at the last few frames of the San Juan Radar we will see a couple of interesting results:

1) The storm seems to be on the verge of developing a eye-like feature which would indicate intensification.

2) A turn to a more westerly course the NHC mentions a 300 degree direction however, I more incline to believe that this may be more in line of 285-290.

Time will tell, but as always comments are welcome.

[Steve H.]

This will change tonight or tomorrow, and a shift to the left is still in the offing. Don't see her out to sea yet.

[gkrangers]

The discussion said that while the GFDL and FSU are still western outliers, they did move significantly to the east.

But it'll come down to what Ivan does and how strong and how far west the ridge is.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[Josephine96]

I'm anticipating a left shift.. the question of course is when lol

[Canelaw99]

Unfortunately, I'm inclined to agree with you stormernie. I think the NHC needs to put more faith in the FSU model, as I believe it's done the best overall this season, and almost every model has underestimated the ridges this season. Just my opinions....

[MBismyPlayground]

Well, as we have all found out with Ivan, these forecasts are subject to change. Now, I will continue to blow, and encourage it to fish.