new vortex....933 mb

[PurdueWx80]

URNT12 KNHC 152012
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/2012Z
B. 28 DEG 15 MIN N
88 DEG 16 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2511 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 132 DEG 118 KT
G. 046 DEG 019 NM
H. 933 MB
I. 10 C/ 3101 M
J. 20 C/ 3082 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/2.0 NM
P. AF963 4009A IVAN OB 22
MAX FL WIND 118 KT NE QUAD 2003Z.

[PurdueWx80]

Eye has shrunk a lot and pressure is down quite a bit (~4 mb in 2 hours)...it may take winds a bit to catch up.

EDIT: Sorry, eye hasn't shrunk..I was thinking it was 40 nm at the last recon but it has remained the same at 30 nm.

[drezee]

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is my family in MOBILE!!! LEAVE IVAN!!!

[x-y-no]

Max flight level wind is lower, but other than that everything says intensifying storm - lower pressure, sharper temperature profile, closed eyewall ...

[Tri-State_1925]

Ivan is one evil storm...one last bombout before it dies. This landfall is going to be ugly. No doubt about it.

[Scorpion]

Definitely doesnt make sense. How did the winds go DOWN 9 kts?

[PurdueWx80]

Moving just a smidge EAST of due north now...basically due north though.

[Innotech]

this is a reintesification landfall. The same kind Andrew and charely underwent. VERY dangerous and I hope to God people are bunkered down in a safe place. This is going to be extremely terrifying.

[Josephine96]

I wonder what if any changes there will be to the 5pm advisory

[jpigott]

approx. how much time to landfall? will there be enough time for those winds to catch up with the falling pressure

[opera ghost]

Unfortunetly... there will probably be plenty of time. I don't remember Ivan having a slow down time between winds and pressure.

[caneman]

approx. how much time to landfall? will there be enough time for those winds to catch up with the falling pressure

Unfortunately it looks like at least another 8 hours which is plenty of time to add another 20 mph.

[windyinnc12]

No change... same winds 135mphs

[canegrl04]

Landfall is expected by 1am or 2am. If ivan keeps dropping in pressure,he will be a cat 4 at landfall

[Fodie77]

Landfall is expected by 1am or 2am. If ivan keeps dropping in pressure,he will be a cat 4 at landfall

he already is a cat 4

[Scorpion]

He is a Cat 4.

[jj_frap]

Landfall is expected by 1am or 2am. If ivan keeps dropping in pressure,he will be a cat 4 at landfall

I think he already is. But "weak" Cat 5 is a slight possibility.

[Fodie77]

Landfall is expected by 1am or 2am. If ivan keeps dropping in pressure,he will be a cat 4 at landfall

I think he already is. But "weak" Cat 5 is a slight possibility.

"weak cat 5" isnt that an oxymoron?

[Innotech]

sorry to say, but I really did expect htis to happen. I didnt want to say anything becasuse it would have caused panic earlier, but the way Ivan has bombed close to other coasts before, it was bound to do it one last time. Ivan has always had a vERY intense core of convection, and htis has formed almost a barrier between the eye and the atmosphere around him. Ivan has traverded dry air, shear, and cooler SSts, yet continues as a very intense hurricane. Because of that, I never really bought the weakening NHC called for. Ivan is the rapid bombing kind of storm, which makes him extremely dangerous and unpredictable. Prayers go out to all of you underneath this multi trillion horsepower force of nature.

[Innotech]

sorry to say, but I really did expect htis to happen. I didnt want to say anything becasuse it would have caused panic earlier, but the way Ivan has bombed close to other coasts before, it was bound to do it one last time. Ivan has always had a vERY intense core of convection, and htis has formed almost a barrier between the eye and the atmosphere around him. Ivan has traverded dry air, shear, and cooler SSts, yet continues as a very intense hurricane. Because of that, I never really bought the weakening NHC called for. Ivan is the rapid bombing kind of storm, which makes him extremely dangerous and unpredictable. Prayers go out to all of you underneath this multi trillion horsepower force of nature.