Ivan + Jeanne = ?

[MWatkins]

I have a big-time cold so I'm doing my best to fight through the haze of sleep deprivation and dayquil...so here it goes.

Ivan looks like it is getting a little stronger. Although recon reports the pressure is up some...the overall eye appears to be a little better defined. I do not expect the hurricane will lose any more windspeed before landfall...and it could regain 5 knots. Landfall on the MS/AL border seems all but assured to me...but residents anywhere in the warning area should be ready. This is a large hurricane.

The GFS and NOGAPS models from 12Z have trended westward a bit...bringing Jeanne up into most of the Bahamas (NOGAPS)...and stalling but never recurving the cyclone (GFS). The GFS solution seems suspect...again...and the GFDL seems to be compensating with the westward run of the storm. Given that I do not expect Ivan to come as far east as the GFS is advertising...and the model's propensity to weaken the Atlantic ridge too quickly...the Euro solution of enough ridging to send Jeanne westward for a while seems reasonable and this is a clear threat to the Bahamas and possibly Florida.

The big hope for the US is to get Jeanne to weaken near or over the DR. There is a chance that the TS could dissipate all together if it gets tangled up there too much. It's tempting to lean that way but right now...Jeanne could become a strong cat 1 or cat 2 storm at the end of the 5 day period.

MW

[Skywatch_NC]

Thank you for all you do for us, Mike! Another excellent forecast/analysis, Wxbuddy! Prayers and thoughts w/ you for a speedy recovery from your cold. Plenty of fluids, chicken soup, and bed rest, too. There's a product called Zicam which may help you, too.

Eric

[bahamaswx]

Maybe she'll pull a Debby.

[Josephine96]

Get well soon Mike.. I also predicted a strong cat 1. borderline cat 2.. let's see what happens

[Guest]

MWatkins i'm sick as well, I feel your pain. doped up on tylenol pm and am...Get well soon friend.

[Weatherboy1]

Looks like more models are coming into agreement that Jeanne will turn N far enough east not to bother FL. Too early to say for sure of course as it all depends on Ivan. But this is good news for storm-weary Floridians. However, both the UKMET and GFS show some blocking by a rebuilding ridge (GFS) that eventually either stalls Jeanne or turns her back toward the SE coast further N than FL (UKMET). The GFS longer-term is almost entertaining. It appears to show Jeanne turning NW and N, then stalling, then getting pushed south for a few days, then eventually exiting off to the NE offshore. Crazy.

[Josephine96]

It may indeed miss us.. But I'm not so convinced on it yet.. If Ivan stalls and that ridge builds in.. then that'll keep Jeanne to the south and be more of a Florida threat

[gkrangers]

The ridge is strong and there, and will probably stay strong. The models have generally weakened the ridge alot for whatever reason, and its probably not the case at all.

Wait and see.

[Canelaw99]

It seems they've been underestimating the ridges a lot this year for some reason. I think I even read something to that effect in one of the NHC's discussions this morning. We in FL definitely can't put the guard down yet....

[Josephine96]

The ridges have been strong.. and I think depending on how fast or slow Ivan moves will depend on what this ridge does..

[jlauderdal]

Looks like more models are coming into agreement that Jeanne will turn N far enough east not to bother FL. Too early to say for sure of course as it all depends on Ivan. But this is good news for storm-weary Floridians. However, both the UKMET and GFS show some blocking by a rebuilding ridge (GFS) that eventually either stalls Jeanne or turns her back toward the SE coast further N than FL (UKMET). The GFS longer-term is almost entertaining. It appears to show Jeanne turning NW and N, then stalling, then getting pushed south for a few days, then eventually exiting off to the NE offshore. Crazy.

dont be so quick to write this off as a florida system. dont get hung up on the models as they are dont have a grasp as to what ivan will do.

[palmettogal]

I feel for all of you suffering. I know you guys are going to get a laugh, but I have chronic sinusitis. It is most often aggravated or flares up when the barometer is doing funky things (mostly falling).

Keep a chart and see for yourselves if it messes with you all.

[Patrick99]

Jeanne had better gain some latitude. If not, I don't see her surviving Hispaniola.

[Weatherboy1]

SAT-SUN...RESIDUAL DEEPER MOISTURE TRAILING FROM IVAN WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS TO SRN CSTL SECTIONS WITH POPS STILL IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE. BY SUN...THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL STALL ACROSS THE
SRN APALACHIANS WITH JEANNE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NW TRACK...
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH WITH SLIGHT DRYING ON
SUNDAY SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW SCATTERED RANGE.

MON-WED...BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE NE U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD TRAP JEANNE TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS (AND GFS
MODEL ACTUALLY SHOWS IT BEING PUSHED BACK SOUTHWARD BY WED). IN ANY
EVENT...WITH HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE MID ATLC...E-NE FLOW WILL
INCREASE WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW INTO TUE-WED. WILL KEEP POPS ON
THE LOW SIDE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ATLC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE.
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH JEANNE'S PATH...BUT FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE AREA ON DAY 6 AND 7.

This excerpt is from the NWS Melbourne's afternoon AFD. It talks about a blocking high establishing itself off the east coast in the late period. After looking at various other model data, and taking into consideration these and other comments, I do believe that Jeanne is probably going to make landfall somewhere in the SE US (in other words, she probably won't be a fish). But whether that "somewhere" is FL or not is an open question. It's just too early to say.

One other Jeanne note -- she appears to be moving almost NW rather than WNW and is about to exit the northern coast of PR. If she continues that motion, she will be at a higher latitude and therefore, less likely to plow into Hispanola. That argues against dissipation.