Catastrophic flooding major concern and likely per mets

[Hugo_Charlotte]

Not to hold Air Force Met to the gun...but just asked him about Catastrophic Flooding and he was VERY concerned. Fetch from the Gulf and Atlantic will lend to Orographic lift to bring astronomical Flooding to the east

[isobar]

Yes HC, very concerning for all in the mid-atl. Take care!
He also said it could be the worst flooding there in the last 2 decades.

[Hugo_Charlotte]

Missed that..... !!!!

[CTNoreaster]

And most local mets have showers and cleraring for the weekend, except for my area, they think the arc should be built, they have their locations for the deluge wrong.

[MiaMom]

Fetch from the Gulf and Atlantic will lend to Orographic lift to bring astronomical Flooding to the east

The Common Man's English, if you please! Some of us are still in the lingo dark.

Many thanks from a novice.

[tedryan]

I have been worried about it the last few days. Regardless of where the eye made land, the shift was always to the northeast. Atlanta already has a flood watch out should this prove true. We did not get as much rain as the mountains, but we do not need for the stom to stall.

I wonder when TWC will post someone at the NC, SC, TN, GA border for a live shot of damn's and floods?

[STORMSURGE]

Here in piedmont area, Fran pushed rivers to highest level I've seen on local records, but worst flooding that I ever witnessed was a tropical storm in the GOM that came this way and the rain actually intensified due to the mountains. Unfortunately I witnessed a drowning in person with a car swept off a road.

[Hugo_Charlotte]

orographic lift is when the winds come from the east in the Carolinas...heading towards the mountains. When wind hits the mountains it rises and when it rises it absolutely wrings every bit of moisture out of the clouds. For example: Frances was moving at a rather decent clip and some parts of Western NC received 17 inches of rain because of the east fetch of wind. The storm pulled moisture from the atlantic and gulf

[STORMSURGE]

yes, and in the winter it can cause blizzard effects when a low is off of the coast and pumping moisture inland.

[MiaMom]

orographic lift is when the winds come from the east in the Carolinas...heading towards the mountains. When wind hits the mountains it rises and when it rises it absolutely wrings every bit of moisture out of the clouds. For example: Frances was moving at a rather decent clip and some parts of Western NC received 17 inches of rain because of the east fetch of wind. The storm pulled moisture from the atlantic and gulf

Thanks for the definition. I really appreciate it.

[ncsandman]

The rivers here in central NC are still running very high, High Rock Lake is still out of its banks, the future sure aint looking to good right now for nobody in the southeast.

[cswitwer]

Charleston County, SC has posted river flood warnings already... they begin tomorrow night if I remember right. They've been posted for days. And we're pretty much as far west as you can get in the southern part of the state. Eek!

Plus rain in the forecast here until at least Monday.

[STORMSURGE]

ncsandman...big change for high rock now from a few years ago huh!

then...all rocks

now water high

[Cid 98]

I guess my camping trip to Boone will be a washout this weekend.

[Hugo_Charlotte]

Uhhh yeah...unless we get some freaky change weather in the Western Carolinas. Local met is all pumped up...he's like: "I have NEVER seen this before"!

[ncsandman]

Amazing isnt it. Funny how a few years ago, there was grass growing almost everywhere. We never realized there were so many big rocks and stumps. It really turned into the yadkin river!!

[Andy_L]

not sure exactly where it is, but the 11pm advisory for ivan has it stationnary for the last 2 days of the forecast

Forecast valid 18/0000z 35.0n 85.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 19/0000z 35.5n 85.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Outlook valid 20/0000z 35.5n 85.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.


those coordinates don't seem to move much

[Hugo_Charlotte]

Yup.....that's what they are saying...S....T.....A....L...L.....

[MBismyPlayground]

For all of you in NC.... coz I am pretty stupid abou tthese things....if it floods ect, what will conditions be like in the Fayetteville area or will this have no effect?

[Hugo_Charlotte]

How much movement do we see in the 96 to 120 hrs???
YIKES

INITIAL 15/0300Z 25.1N 87.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 26.6N 87.8W 125 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 28.6N 88.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 30.6N 88.2W 120 KT...INLAND NEAR MOBILE, ALABAMA(140 MPH WINDS!)
48HR VT 17/0000Z 32.6N 87.6W 70 KT...INLAND OVER HALE COUNTY, ALABAMA(80 MPH WINDS)
72HR VT 18/0000Z 35.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND NEAR ALABAMA/GEORGIA/TENNESSEE BORDER(35 MPH WINDS)
96HR VT 19/0000Z 35.5N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0000Z 35.5N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND