Ivan Better Go Due North In The Next Hour

[Sean in New Orleans]

...cause the system is just about due South of Mobile Bay! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormcenter]

Sean it will be close but I think Ivan is going to hook to the NE right before he gets to the mouth of the river toward the MS/LA/W.FL coastline. Are you still there?

[B-Bear]

I never bought that he was going to go to Mobile. He'll hit just east of New Orleans.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Sean it will be close but I think Ivan is going to hook to the NE right before he gets to the mouth of the river toward the MS/LA/W.FL coastline. Are you still there?

Yes--I'm here and staying...I go into a little more detail about that on the New Orleans traffic cam thread if you want to hear my plans!

[dennis1x1]

all the evil models and official track have him going past mobile bay longitude at this latitude...

[Sean in New Orleans]

all the evil models and official track have him going past mobile bay longitude at this latitude...

??? elaborate, please...I'm confused.

[B-Bear]

all the evil models and official track have him going past mobile bay longitude at this latitude...

The models and the NHC has been consistently right of Ivan's actual track. Further, he has remained in a WNW or NW motion even when he was expected to take a more northerly motion. Now if you want to believe that Ivan is suddenly going to alter his consistent behavior and take a NE track prior to landfall, go ahead and believe that. Ivan doesn't care what you believe. Nor does he care what I believe, what the models say, or what the NHC believes. He'll go where he wants. I believe he wants to go just east of New Orleans.

[jacindc]

Last few frames in this loop show a decidely new flattening and "pointing" to the NW:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[PTrackerLA]

I noticed the "pointing" as well. Not sure if it's any indication on a further NW track, we shall see.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I noticed the "pointing" as well. Not sure if it's any indication on a further NW track, we shall see.

I've been watching this like a hawk for 2 hours now...I hope this doesn't verify, but, it appears that Ivan is going to go around this ridge which will likely bring it directly to the City of New Orleans. This also was mentioned as a huge fear by mets on the 6:00 newscasts.

[Stormcenter]

I noticed the "pointing" as well. Not sure if it's any indication on a further NW track, we shall see.

I've been watching this like a hawk for 2 hours now...I hope this doesn't verify, but, it appears that Ivan is going to go around this ridge which will likely bring it directly to the City of New Orleans. This also was mentioned as a huge fear by mets on the 6:00 newscasts.

I hope I'm right for N.O. sake but I just believe he's going to move NNW close to the mouth of Miss. and then hook right. It well be very very close call. Please note scenario "may" happen early in his forecast track
and then cause Ivan to make landfall W>Fl. panhandle. As I said good for N.O. but unfortunately bad for places eastward.

[tdess02]

I noticed this too, but I have to trust the NHC. I am staying at home SE of New Orleans banking on the North turn. My wife wanted to leave but I convinced her to stay. If the NHC is wrong we will all be in big trouble here.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I noticed this too, but I have to trust the NHC. I am staying at home SE of New Orleans banking on the North turn. My wife wanted to leave but I convinced her to stay. If the NHC is wrong we will all be in big trouble here.

Nothing is written in stone--it may go to Pascagoula or around that area. However, we need to see a few more frames and begin to see some type of turn soon, IMO. One possible scenario pointed out by local mets does bring the system over New Orleans and watching satellite, it's getting close to verifying.

[Stormcenter]

I noticed this too, but I have to trust the NHC. I am staying at home SE of New Orleans banking on the North turn. My wife wanted to leave but I convinced her to stay. If the NHC is wrong we will all be in big trouble here.

Nothing is written in stone--it may go to Pascagoula or around that area. However, we need to see a few more frames and begin to see some type of turn soon, IMO. One possible scenario pointed out by local mets does bring the system over New Orleans and watching satellite, it's getting close to verifying.

I think Ivan just moved NNW to due N during the last 30 minutes so hopefully this track will pan out as per NHC forecast.

[hesperhys]

I noticed this too, but I have to trust the NHC. I am staying at home SE of New Orleans banking on the North turn. My wife wanted to leave but I convinced her to stay. If the NHC is wrong we will all be in big trouble here.

"Trust the NHC"? The NHC has given you warning that a very powerful hurricane may well hit your location... If this thing hits you, the NHC won't have been "wrong". You are, after all, in their hurricane warning zone. It's not too late to leave...

[Ixolib]

I noticed this too, but I have to trust the NHC. I am staying at home SE of New Orleans banking on the North turn. My wife wanted to leave but I convinced her to stay. If the NHC is wrong we will all be in big trouble here.

Go much futher SE of N.O., and you'll be in the water. Where, exactly, are you located TDESS02??

[Terry]

Sean, I just have to say that I hope you are ready to hit the road. This thing could come in anywhere near NO and just darn clobber you. Hit the road, toad. Complain later about the hassle. We'll be glad to hear ya do so!

[wxwatcher2]

I noticed this too, but I have to trust the NHC. I am staying at home SE of New Orleans banking on the North turn. My wife wanted to leave but I convinced her to stay. If the NHC is wrong we will all be in big trouble here.

I'm shocked that you are staying. You still have time. I say GET OUT of HARMS WAY NOW !!!

Ivan is a large KILLER hurricane. He is going go cause massive flooding and devastating winds.

Please stay safe and that means moving out of harms way.