New Orleans Question

nolastorm · #1 Postby **nolastorm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:50 pm

ok - so guys and gals - I am trying to absorb all of this info - is New Orleans pretty much off target now for a direct hit - just trying to decide whether I should leave tomorrow - will we be affected at all?? I know with hurricanes anything can happen but I guess I am asking what the likeliness is - looking for a little guidance. Thanks and take care!

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:52 pm

I really wish I could give a more defintive answer but I can't. My guess would be the hurricane would hit a good ways east of you, but several models still show a big problem for New Orleans.

Mello1 · #3 Postby **Mello1** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:53 pm

nolastorm wrote:ok - so guys and gals - I am trying to absorb all of this info - is New Orleans pretty much off target now for a direct hit - just trying to decide whether I should leave tomorrow - will we be affected at all?? I know with hurricanes anything can happen but I guess I am asking what the likeliness is - looking for a little guidance. Thanks and take care!

The fact is that no one knows for certain other than your city is in the cone. Your mayor has made statements today that pretty much puts NO on alert. Schools are closing and highways are being prepped for one way evacs north. You may get hit, you may not. The question you have to ask yourself is are you willing to wait until the last minute to assure yourself of a miss or risk being caught up in traffic. It really comes down to just that.

canegrl04 · #4 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:54 pm

Nobody from N.O. to the Florida Panhadle is ot of the woods yet

debbiet · #5 Postby **debbiet** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:55 pm

I wouldn't rely too much on the predictions from here or anywhere else for that matter with regard to landfall of Ivan. It looks like that may not be known until it happens...Ivan does pretty much whatever he wants. All you can do is be prepared and if your local Emergency Management tells you its time to leave...leave. Just my opinion.

heel · #6 Postby **heel** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 7:56 pm

well, there not canceling schools here in tallahassee so that N.O. is alot more likely to head more westerly than easterly. Be prepared.

nolastorm · #7 Postby **nolastorm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:17 pm

Thanks everyone - I really appreciate our network here. I have packed a few things so will get a good nights sleep and see how things look in the morning - I am leaning toward leaving - better safe than sorry. Hope all can stay out of harms way.

Sean in New Orleans · #8 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:22 pm

nolastorm---I'm here in New Orleans--just wait until tomorrow around noon to see how things are looking. Your OK until then, for sure. I do not know if this storm is coming here. I'm the kinda person to look at a system and say--OK, this one is Florida, or Alabama, etc...but, this one, I honestly can't do that yet. It may come to New Orleans--it may go to Destin. We'll have to wait and see a little longer. Just make basic preps and then you'll be glad you did if you do decide you have to leave.

nolastorm · #9 Postby **nolastorm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 8:44 pm

Sean, thanks - that is pretty much what I have decided - will look at things in the morning. Just wish I didn't have to go into work! Please keep me posted.

#10 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:55 pm

If You are in a flood prone area which most of NO is I'd be leaving There's not one MET. out there that would bet his or her house or life, for that matter ,on getting land fall within 75miles. Lots of luck I'm 50 miles northwest and I'm very concerned.

#11 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:57 pm

New Orleans is not out of the woods w/ a Hurricane Watch now in effect.

Francis Joseph · #12 Postby **Francis Joseph** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:03 pm

My wife's folks are in New Orleans. They are old school and live in a well-built two story house near the Lakefront. They say they will ride it out as they always have done. I hope they change their minds, and hit the road ASAP. Prayers for all the folks along the gulf coast.

glopst7162 · #13 Postby **glopst7162** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:11 pm

It now looks like Ivan will strike to the west of the panhandle. New Orleans looks to be in serious danger!

As of 11 PM Mon. Sep. 13 Ivan had sustained winds of 160 MPH with gusts to 195 and has a pressure under 27 inches at 917 mb. The only good news is that the computer models project that it will only have winds of 118 MPH in 72 hours. But this storm has not followed predictions much so if I were in New Orleans I would be planning to be somewhere else when Ivan hits the US cost line.

That bad new from the weather channel in the US is that Iven will not turn East as much as was previously expected and can be expected to accelerate as it nears the US cost line.

SE US Map:
http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/recenteqs

Louisiana map:
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_s ... ana_90.jpg

Computer model tracking:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Future projection 21 or so hours out:
http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/plots/wrf/ ... z.hr48.png

Nexus · #14 Postby **Nexus** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 10:17 pm

Francis Joseph wrote:My wife's folks are in New Orleans. They are old school and live in a well-built two story house near the Lakefront. They say they will ride it out as they always have done. I hope they change their minds, and hit the road ASAP. Prayers for all the folks along the gulf coast.

Take a look at the bottom of this graphic.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/goingunder_jpg.jpg

A Cat 4/5 direct hit on NOLA would mean the two story house would be entirely underwater.

New Orleans Question

New Orleans Question

Re: New Orleans Question

Please have them reconsider.

Who is online