Slowed down even more?

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tampastorm
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Slowed down even more?

#1 Postby tampastorm » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:40 pm

Sure looks it from latest loop
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Josephine96

#2 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:42 pm

Tampa.. what could a more of a slow down mean..? change in direction..? path change..?
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#3 Postby tampastorm » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:43 pm

I still under the impression, this will slow more, high pulls east and trough brings Ivan dangerously close to the FL west coast. I hope not becasue 70MPH frances winds scared me to death!
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Josephine96

#4 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:45 pm

Tampa.. I still think you and I are not out of harms way yet.. It could be my Frances/Charley guts talking..

But this storm is moving kinda slow..
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#5 Postby tampastorm » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:45 pm

AGREED!
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Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:46 pm

I'm just wondering where it's going to go.. once it's moving N..
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Anonymous

#7 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:34 pm

As the NWS Tampa said earlier today, people of the fla Peninsula should not let their guard down until after the storm passes North of them....There have been some models at time calling for a hit on New Orleans then turning it ENE along the gulf to near the Appalachicola Bay--so this storm definitely has tricked the models so far and may have a few more tricks up his sleeve
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Rainband

#8 Postby Rainband » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:36 pm

Looks better and better for us with each passing moment. My prayers go out to those who will be affected by Ivan :( Stay safe!!!!
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#9 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:39 pm

This thing has not moved int he last 1.5 hours

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#10 Postby latemodel25 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:43 pm

chris_fit
wondering what your thoughts are now on where shes headed? I value your input.
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Anonymous

#11 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:43 pm

chris_fit wrote:This thing has not moved int he last 1.5 hours

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


It looks like hes has stopped and trying to make up his mind whether he wants to cross the western tip of Cuba or move around it--my guess he will wobble west then north to get around it as he has seemed to do a fairly good job at dodging land so far :wink:
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#12 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:46 pm

I have not made a new forecast since 2 days ago.

It is already west of my cone. It has much more nothern component though..

gahh..

I really dont know anymore. I was saying central to north FL... I dont think it will go that far east anymore. However, I dont think that it will go as far west as the models are saying.
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#13 Postby PurdueWx80 » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:47 pm

chris_fit wrote:This thing has not moved int he last 1.5 hours

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Not according to recon:

URNT12 KNHC 132053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2053Z
B. 21 DEG 15 MIN N
84 DEG 51 MIN W

URNT12 KNHC 132309
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2309Z
B. 21 DEG 25 MIN N
85 DEG 03 MIN W

Over about 2 hours, it has moved 10 minutes north and 12 west.
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SootyTern
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#14 Postby SootyTern » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:47 pm

Unfortunately once he gets into the Gulf he won't be able to dodge land any more. Hope for some major decrease in intensity, folks!

:eek:
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#15 Postby brudeb » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:49 pm

It is eerie how he keeps dodging land. Why is he doing that? What is he saving it for? I am praying for all the people in his path. :eek:
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Anonymous

#16 Postby Anonymous » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:49 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:This thing has not moved int he last 1.5 hours

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Not according to recon:

URNT12 KNHC 132053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2053Z
B. 21 DEG 15 MIN N
84 DEG 51 MIN W

URNT12 KNHC 132309
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2309Z
B. 21 DEG 25 MIN N
85 DEG 03 MIN W

Over about 2 hours, it has moved 10 minutes north and 12 west.


But is that position of where the vortex was dropped or where the center of the eye is ? Do the NHC use satellite or Vortex to locate the eye??
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chris_fit
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#17 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:50 pm

According to the vis loop... it has not move for 1.5 hours.
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AL Chili Pepper
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#18 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:52 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:This thing has not moved int he last 1.5 hours

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Not according to recon:

URNT12 KNHC 132053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2053Z
B. 21 DEG 15 MIN N
84 DEG 51 MIN W

URNT12 KNHC 132309
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2309Z
B. 21 DEG 25 MIN N
85 DEG 03 MIN W

Over about 2 hours, it has moved 10 minutes north and 12 west.


9MPH if my bookmarked web page is correct.
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tronbunny
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#19 Postby tronbunny » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:52 pm

I've decided that a 20Mi diameter eye could easily have a drop error of 10min.

Just my latest observation-based humble opinion.
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BReb
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#20 Postby BReb » Mon Sep 13, 2004 6:52 pm

It's not like the western tip of Cuba had any population to speak of- basically uninhabited.
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