Mobile/Pensacola out of the woods?

Opal storm · #1 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:43 pm

To me it looks like it.With Ivan more on a northern track,the Big Bend area might have a much better chance of landfall.I don't see how Ivan could turn back west towards the Northern Gulf coast (MS,AL,W FL panhandle).

TideFreak · #2 Postby **TideFreak** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:44 pm

He is heading NNW at present time, and is SSE of Gulfport, Ms, roughly, but is expected to resume a NW course later tonight or early tomorrow AM

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:44 pm

huh? I think Ivan is still forecasted to hit Pensacola (or in that area).
...Jennifer...

Cape Verde · #4 Postby **Cape Verde** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:45 pm

Nobody is out of the woods until this storm is about a day from landfall. Unfortunately, some potential strike zones can't evacuate in a day.

#5 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:46 pm

No way. That's prime threat area. Read the 5pm discussion. They expect the ridge to build back in behind the lifting trough and nudge Ivan back to the NW in 12 hours or so.

Steve

#6 Postby **wlfpack81** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:47 pm

Mobile is not out of the woods at all. This NNW is forecasted to become NW-ly again after this trough lifts out and that'll still make things hairy for the Mobile, AL. People there would be foolish to let their guard down. Also remember 75+mph winds extend 105 miles out and 39-73mph winds even further. You don't have to be near the eye to be affected.

Opal storm · #7 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:49 pm

It's moved too far north,even if it does resume a NW track,the farthest landfall towards the west would be around Destn,putting everybody west of Destin in the weak spot of the storm.

TideFreak · #8 Postby **TideFreak** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:51 pm

Well put wlfpack81
I can guaranty you that people here are taking Ivan seriously. Wal-Marts, Home Depot's, and Lowes are running out of everything
All schools are closing at noon tomorrow, and so on . . .

#9 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:51 pm

Then maybe wait until tomorrow, but the NHC's track at 5 puts it right over the AL/FL border.

Steve

Novelty's Worn Off · #10 Postby **Novelty's Worn Off** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:52 pm

You can't be sure. read the 5pm discussion fron the NHC

PTrackerLA · #11 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:52 pm

Opal storm wrote:It's moved too far north,even if it does resume a NW track,the farthest landfall towards the west would be around Destn,putting everybody west of Destin in the weak spot of the storm.

Really don't know how you figure that since the current motion would place the storm in Louisiana. Destin might be spared but not from the storm going east but too far west IMO. I think Miss. will be landfall.

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:56 pm

NOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Mobile to Pensacola is the highest probability right now. Very serious situation.

wxwatcher2 · #13 Postby **wxwatcher2** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:57 pm

Out of the woods?
What are you smoking???? It's heading right at you !!!!

HardCard · #14 Postby **HardCard** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:59 pm

Boy I love misinformation... BURAS LA is the current highest prob at 21%.

Opal storm · #15 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:59 pm

wxwatcher2 wrote:Out of the woods?
What are you smoking???? It's heading right at you !!!!

What have you been smokin'????I live in Kissimmee :lol:

Opal storm · #16 Postby **Opal storm** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:02 pm

Just my opinion people,I'm not saying people shouldn't be preparing.I just think the track will be shifted much more to the right due to the northern jog.

#17 Postby **Steve** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:09 pm

Like Purde said, the center's jumping 85W now. Let's see if the next frame continues the trend. Ivan is a very interesting storm.

Steve

Sean in New Orleans · #18 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:33 pm

The area that is in the most danger of landfall, IMO, is from Buras, LA to Destin, FL as of this moment. Anyone in this area is likely to see the landfall of the eye. Depending on the high in the Gulf, it could go as far west as Lafayette,LA and as far east as Apalachicola, FL, IMO. I know this sounds just like what every weather person is stating, but, this is how it stands right now---flat out.

#19 Postby **crazycajuncane** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:38 pm

I wish we had a 100% 3 day model. This Hurricane is driving people insane!

AL Chili Pepper · #20 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Mon Sep 13, 2004 5:46 pm

wlfpack81 wrote:Mobile is not out of the woods at all. This NNW is forecasted to become NW-ly again after this trough lifts out and that'll still make things hairy for the Mobile, AL. People there would be foolish to let their guard down. Also remember 75+mph winds extend 105 miles out and 39-73mph winds even further. You don't have to be near the eye to be affected.

Believe me wlfpack...we aren't letting our guards down. Everyone I know is getting real, real nervous.

Mobile/Pensacola out of the woods?

Mobile/Pensacola out of the woods?

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