912 mbs!!,136kt NW QUAD

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

912 mbs!!,136kt NW QUAD

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:28 pm

Code: Select all

000
URNT12 KNHC 131747
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1747Z
B. 20 DEG 53 MIN N
   84 DEG 41 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2305 M
D. 60 KT
E. 321 DEG 86 NM
F. 031 DEG 136 KT
G. 296 DEG 010 NM
H. 912 MB
I. 11 C/ 3056 M
J. 20 C/ 3079 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF980 3109A IVAN OB 06
   MAX FL WIND 136 KT NW QUAD 1744Z
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Scorpion

#2 Postby Scorpion » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:29 pm

Whats with the winds? They really dropped! But the pressure is going down again.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:30 pm

Pressure dropped 2 mbs from last vortex one hour ago.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

First pass

#4 Postby Steve Cosby » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:31 pm

Scorpion wrote:Whats with the winds? They really dropped! But the pressure is going down again.


Observation 6 - basically first pass through the eye. Probably encounter greater winds on later observations.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#5 Postby Brent » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:31 pm

Ivan the Terrible. :eek:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Scorpion

#6 Postby Scorpion » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:33 pm

Maybe it could get < 910? It looks certainly feasible.
0 likes   
Top
recmod
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:57 pm
Location: Orlando, FL
Contact:
Contact recmod

#7 Postby recmod » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:34 pm

The winds have not dropped. That recon report came from the NW quadrant. The highest winds are typically found in the NE quadrant
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
drezee
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3664
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:49 pm
Location: FL

Re: First pass

#8 Postby drezee » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:35 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Whats with the winds? They really dropped! But the pressure is going down again.


Observation 6 - basically first pass through the eye. Probably encounter greater winds on later observations.


And that my friend is why they send out the Supp. Vortex Message!!
159kts at Flight level 1 sec
151kts at Flight level 1 min

410
URNT14 KNHC 131751
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01218 10858 13087 11008 04048
02217 20856 23064 20808 05056
03215 30854 33029 30909 06075
04213 40852 43958 41010 07089
05211 50850 53876 51111 05093
06209 60848 63650 61010 04139
MF209 M0848 MF147
OBS 01 AT 16:35:00Z
OBS 06 AT 16:59:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 04060
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01207 10844 13484 11111 21137
02205 20842 23821 21111 21113
03203 30840 33930 30808 22090
04201 40838 43001 40909 21084
05199 50836 53038 50909 21072
06198 60835 63062 61009 21072
MF207 M0843 MF151
OBS 01 AT 17:09:10Z
OBS 06 AT 17:36:50Z
OBS 06 SFC WND 20045
AF304 WXWXA 040913IVAN OB 09
MAX 1 SEC INBOUND WND SPD 159 KTS
Last edited by drezee on Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
camilletider
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 50
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:53 pm
Location: alabama

#9 Postby camilletider » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:36 pm

Good job Cyclone. Where are you able to find the update on the vortex messages so quickly. The best I can do is the FTP on the NHC site, not as quick as yours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Steve Cosby
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 525
Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2003 6:49 pm
Location: Northwest Arkansas

Re: First pass

#10 Postby Steve Cosby » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:36 pm

drezee wrote:And that my friend is why they send out the Supp. Vortex Message!!
159kts at Flight level


MAX 1 SEC INBOUND WND SPD 159 KTS


Actually, one second doesn't technically count (one minute is the standard).

But, still, that first report is not the final determination.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2004 1:37 pm

camilletider wrote:Good job Cyclone. Where are you able to find the update on the vortex messages so quickly. The best I can do is the FTP on the NHC site, not as quick as yours.


http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/tropics.html

There it comes more rapid than the NHC site.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: DESTRUCTION5, Team Ghost and 264 guests