So now no shear in the gulf but cool upwelling? huh?

logybogy · #1 Postby **logybogy** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:11 pm

But the low shear
conditions and the very warm SSTs ahead of Ivan should keep the
hurricane at least at category 4 strength until the central Gulf of
Mexico is reached in 36-48 hours. Some cool upwelling is expected
from that point until U.S. Landfall occurs...which should bring
about gradual weakening despite the very favorable upper-level
outflow pattern that all of the global models are forecasting.

The only upwelling I see in the SST maps of the gulf is directly along the FL west coast from Frances.

If Ivan moves a little more into the central gulf, SST are approaching 90 degrees.

Also, it's interesting that there is now no mention of shear in the gulf, but a favorable environment.

#2 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:13 pm

Yeah...that's a big change in the discussion since 5 am...and all previous days.

#3 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:13 pm

So how will Ivan weaken? No shear and warm temps mean strong storm.

#4 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:15 pm

Yes, see this post which started over an hour ago:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44378

canegrl04 · #5 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:15 pm

The only cool water I've seen in the Gulf exists off the W. coast of Florida.Theres some 30-32c tepms in the central part of the GOM :eek:

Ivanova · #6 Postby **Ivanova** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:17 pm

How do you like this ending quote:

"IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES
IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2100.shtml?

Even the NHC's URL has a question mark behind it

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logybogy · #7 Postby **logybogy** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:19 pm

Look at this map of SST's in the gulf.

http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averag ... 9_mult.png

Please tell me how the hell Ivan will weaken with NO SHEAR if he takes a path west of the eastern outlier NHC track? He'll be heading into 90 degree water.

Is the NHC just trying not to freak people out that a Cat 4/5 storm will hit the gulf?

canegrl04 · #8 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:22 pm

My only guess is that the NHC always leans on the cautious side where it comes to forecasting intensity.Probably not to scare anyone unnecessarily

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:25 pm

I could not keep a strioght face while reading that line of the dicussion. I never knew that upwelling occurred when you had a system mvoing at 10 m.p.h. or greater, as this one is expected to do in the GOM

LSUChamps0002 · #10 Postby **LSUChamps0002** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:28 pm

I thought upwelling would hamper a storm if a storm, ON The Same Track, had previously cooled the waters, or the storm was stalled.

Am I wrong? Could be. Wouldn't be the first or last time.

Ivanova · #11 Postby **Ivanova** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:28 pm

Let's hope these don't erupt within the next 48 hours :eek:

Remember.... there was a 6.0 earthquake near Ivan's path
on Thursday !

Quote:

"The researchers surmise that such asphalt volcanoes only occur in the Gulf of Mexico, but that they are abundant there, because the conditions required for their formation — deep water, salt diapirs below the seafloor, and the presence of oil deposits — are found only here."

http://www.hindu.com/seta/2004/06/03/st ... 151400.htm

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birdwomn · #12 Postby **birdwomn** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:28 pm

I think everyone in the NHC needs to get some sleep or something. This is not a typical Stewart discussion. Something got him off track.

Stormchaser16 · #13 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:29 pm

Uhhhhh

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

No upper ocean heat potential..... at all

Ivanova · #14 Postby **Ivanova** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:33 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:
Uhhhhh

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

No upper ocean heat potential..... at all

Only that spot around Louisiana !

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Stormchaser16 · #15 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:35 pm

Do you not know how to read the map? Serious question....

The bluer(cooler colored) areas have much less heat potential, you see the eastern caribbean has very high heat potential, while the GOM seems very limited

logybogy · #16 Postby **logybogy** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:37 pm

But that doesn't make sense. SST map has 90 degree water temps around some of that blue area.

So heat potential isn't related to water temperature?

How can that be?

Ivanova · #17 Postby **Ivanova** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:38 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:
Do you not know how to read the map? Serious question....

The bluer(cooler colored) areas have much less heat potential, you see the eastern caribbean has very high heat potential, while the GOM seems very limited

Yes.. I know how to read the map... I see yellow and red
off the coast of Louisiana... it's not hard to spot :roll:

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Stormchaser16 · #18 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:39 pm

Thats about the only spot where its very high in Ivan's forecasted path,,,,, notice all the blue right along the coast, and right in its way as it enters the GOM

Ivanova · #19 Postby **Ivanova** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:41 pm

As I said I can read the map...
and my previous post is correct...
why are you giving me a hard time ?

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logybogy · #20 Postby **logybogy** » Sun Sep 12, 2004 5:42 pm

Why is the heat potential map blue around Louisana when the water temperature there is 90 degrees?

So now no shear in the gulf but cool upwelling? huh?

So now no shear in the gulf but cool upwelling? huh?

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