STEWART............

[bobbisboy]

is quite simply the best NHC has to offer. If he says.....

THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS ERODED THE RIDGE FROM 500
MB THROUGH THE 300 MB LEVEL.

Then you can bank on that. I have been harping for 2 days about the strength of the shortwave which will reinforced shortly. If IVAN is in fact "caught" by this trough he'll end up east of what the present thinking is. I still would allow for the chance he's not caught at all in which case IVAN had better learn to speak spanish very fast !!!!

As is plain in this WV, the ridging to the N of IVAN is very close to being broken down. Next 6-12 hours will tell the story.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[mobilebay]

is quite simply the best NHC has to offer. If he says.....

THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS ERODED THE RIDGE FROM 500
MB THROUGH THE 300 MB LEVEL.

Then you can bank on that. I have been harping for 2 days about the strength of the shortwave which will reinforced shortly. If IVAN is in fact "caught" by this trough he'll end up east of what the present thinking is. I still would allow for the chance he's not caught at all in which case IVAN had better learn to speak spanish very fast !!!!

As is plain in this WV, the ridging to the N of IVAN is very close to being broken down. Next 6-12 hours will tell the story.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I agree. track into west of Panama City that now even the GFS sees.

[Anonymous]

The frontal boundary, trof, weakness...etc. in the gulf, is not going to influence Ivan at this time, as evident by the western end of it, already backing toward the upper Mexican/lower Texas coast, which in turn means to me, the ridge to the north is moving more west to east, instead of digging down into the Gulf of Mexico.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

The frontal boundary, trof, weakness...etc. in the gulf, is not going to influence Ivan at this time, as evident by the western end of it, already backing toward the upper Mexican/lower Texas coast, which in turn means to me, the ridge to the north is moving more west to east, instead of digging down into the Gulf of Mexico.

uhhh ...do we believe you or STEWART???

[mobilebay]

The frontal boundary, trof, weakness...etc. in the gulf, is not going to influence Ivan at this time, as evident by the western end of it, already backing toward the upper Mexican/lower Texas coast, which in turn means to me, the ridge to the north is moving more west to east, instead of digging down into the Gulf of Mexico.

uhhh ...do we believe you or STEWART???

NOT trying to be smart. In all do respect EVERY model is now WEST of the NHC track, it will likely be moved westwerd at 5PM

[AL Chili Pepper]

Not trying to start an argument here, but the ridge would have to weaken in order to follow the NHC, and most every other, track.

[bobbisboy]

Mobile,

Note in my original post I allow for the fact that IVAN may miss the trough totally but if he does he will not be a US storm, but a Mexcian storm. All in all, I'd still put my money on Stewart but the move to the N has not begun yet and IVAN is moving closer and closer to the Yucatan. Recent movement is nowhere near to 300.

[CaluWxBill]

Yeah I thought this was interesting lastnight while on Teamspeak. although I didn't know if it would provide enough of a weakness in the ridge to allow a more definite NW or NNW turn. I wouldn't expect that s/w to pick up Ivan, as it is too far N now, but any little weakness acted upon the ridge should be looked at as a playing factor, especially with the relatively weak steering currents.

[mobilebay]

Mobile,

Note in my original post I allow for the fact that IVAN may miss the trough totally but if he does he will not be a US storm, but a Mexcian storm. All in all, I'd still put my money on Stewart but the move to the N has not begun yet and IVAN is moving closer and closer to the Yucatan. Recent movement is nowhere near to 300.

I agree with you and STEWART. however, new model data has come in since that discussion.

[bobbisboy]

Cazumel ??

Are their warnings up for the Yucatan ?? If not there should be.