NHC Tampa Bay Forecast Track Is Bogus

[tropicstorm]

C'mon everybody - the NHC track just to the west of Tampa Bay remains unchanged in almost the past 48 hours! This is becoming a disservice to the residents of the Tampa Bay / St. Pete / Clearwater areas. Can you imagine the $millions of dollars being spent by these folks right now & over the weekend on plywood, generators, chain saws, water, batteries & other hurricane supplies? The number of businesses that have already closed their doors or are planning to close & the $millions of lost dollars of revenue? The huge number of people in these areas evacuating to escape another Florida storm strike? Just because the general public is being told via TV/media & shown this unchanging forecast track right into Tampa Bay, which is the official NHC forecast!

Why do I make this point? Because, quite frankly - the NHC is clueless about where Ivan is going to end up! The "official" NHC forecast track bringing Ivan near to the Tampa Bay area is nothing more than a hedge by the NHC about their uncertainty with the east vs. west models. They don't know where Ivan is going & probably won't until this hurricane gets north of Cuba & atmospheric conditions become more reliable. To draw the "forecast track" down the middle of their cone to Tampa Bay in order to cover their butts is becoming a real disservice to Bay area residents. Maybe Ivan will come to the Bay area or maybe he won't. Seems like he has just as much chance right now to hit Pensacola, Tallahassee or maybe southeast Florida. No one knows right now - not even NHC. Instead of showing such a direct forecast path right now, the NHC should just concentrate on the "cone of uncertainty" - that keeps everyone on their toes & no area spending $millions without just cause.

[NateFLA]

I cannot disagree more wholeheartedly with this post.

If the chance is only 20% that Tampa will have a direct hit, there needs to be the same prep as there is with a 50% chance.

Looking at this city, if all that happens is we have a more prepared city with citizens stocked with hurricane supplies they haven't needed for 50 years, so be it...

I still don't think Tampa is out of the woods by any remote stretch of the imagination yet.

Also, there is something to be said about the educatoin of the map reader. I think the NHC has pretty clearly conveyed that the "dashed line" in no remote way dictates where the storm will go... they are just connecting the dots of rough estimates, and I expect the population to realize that like the rest of the state.

[Anonymous]

NHC has tools and knowledge that we dont have and until the responsibillity shifts in reguards to peoples Lives/property by the Federal Government to someone else, I'll go with their forecast

[Pebbles]

It's the cone that really matter's not the line...Because of that the whole cone area should act like the line is pointed at them...if that was the case your point would be?? Tampa would still be in the cone regardless ...no? not trying to bash or be mean...just stateing something. If the whole cone was treated the way it should be..shouldn't Tampa take the same exact precautions? *huggers*

[wxwatcher2]

No one is making anyone go out and spend money on hurricane prep.
It's up to the individual. I think the NHC is right on. THey have been with Charley and Frances. Sure, you guys in Tampa are miffed because Charley went in a few miles south of you but it was still within the cone of movement forecast by the NHc.
Having hurricane supplies on hand is never a bad idea.
I've spent about 400 bucks on stuff the past couple of weeks including food, plywood, batteries, tarps etc.
I'm not sorry, one bit.
Anyway,
who are you gonna get mad at? MOther nature?

By Sunday night, we'll know much better where Ivan is going. Til then, just enjoy tracking and preparing.

[dennis1x1]

they dont even have a tampa landfall........your point is ridiculous.

should they never project a hurricane near tampa? just let the whole gulf coast sweat it out instead?

[~SirCane]

I think the line projection should stop in the gulf with a big ? mark. : )

[tropicstorm]

Only rediculous because you really don't understand the point of view. Think about it. It's really quite valid, whether or not the hurricane strikes the Tampa Bay area or stays just off the coast.

[ericinmia]

I think the line should stop at the 3 day forecast.... showing they really cannot accurately forecast especially with this storm 5+ days out...
-Eric

[dennis1x1]

no...the point isnt valid..and the biggest reason that it is not is that its directed at the NHC.....

lets assume that the NHC didnt project the 5day at all.....do we assume that every local Tampa- nhc employee wannabe- media weathercaster cant pick up the latest computer models and draw the same conclusions with a bit of ratings grabbing tom and jerry...err terry...-removed- thrown in for good measure?

think about it.


and an edited ps to the original poster....call up the GFS people.....youre going to have a big beef with them..

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[tropicstorm]

Don't really know what you're talking about here. The point is - and it's clear - is that the NHC has selected an exact mean direction based on their statistical probability of uncertainty. They don't know that Ivan will follow this Florida west coast track - they're just forecasting this path based on an average of the east vs. west models. And this is why I said that this NHC initiative is not well served for Tampa Bay area residents. Either you get it or you don't. Good night.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Tropicstorm you say that the NHC should concentrate on the cone of probability and that would keep everone on their toes! Well the greatest concentration regarding that cone is that mean line. Where every point in that line has the greatest probability that the hurricanes eye will pass within 65 miles of those points.

Now then regarding keeping people on their toes...
If a person has just cause to be on their toes in the first place then a person would have just cause to make the necessary expenditures to protect life, loved ones, and property. The possiblity of losing all that due to not being prepared of course is just cause for spending the money needed.

Also did you NOTICE THE DATE AND TIME on the statiscal probabilty line within that cone? You know, the hurricane is at one point on that line at a certain date and time?

You think that people may want to know how much time they have to prepare? That is why there is a line in that cone. A line that has forecasted positions along with the date and time of each of those forecasted positions. In some cases the strength of the storm is shown in each and every forecasted position on that line in the cone.

You think people might be interested in the strength of the system?


Well that is just my two cents