5 Day Track Coordinate Issues
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5 Day Track Coordinate Issues
I can not understand why the NHC (and I am not Bashing them) gives out the four and five day points. Statistically their average error is 373 miles in the five day forecast. That basically means statistically you have a better chance of the Hurricane being 372 miles from that point at day five than you do of it being at that point in day five. Therefore duw to there average errors you have a better or the same chance on the outside of the cone than you do on the line. I agree with the cone philosophy but not on the coordinates and the line. I would need to see more accuracy than the entire length of the Florida penisula to Key West for the line to be drawn and it is very misleading to the general public. The bottom line is that people start to make decisions too early and it someday will have a catostrophic effect with clogged roadways due to evacuationg areas too early. I agree in the earliest possible evacuations but one must remeber where do you go in Florida if the average error is the length of the entire state? I do not want to ruffle any feathers and am new to this but all of the general population still concentrates on the line. For example tonight in South Florida the general feeling (Not on the media) of people is that we are in the clear. I must be the same people that thought Punta Gorda was in the clear with Charley and when Irene passed over South East Florida with Hurricane force winds when we were only in a tropical storm warning or watch for a few hours prior to the eyewall passing over us.
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Quote" I can not understand why the NHC (and I am not Bashing them) gives out the four and five day points. Statistically their average error is 373 miles in the five day forecast"
To give us something to debate??? lol It really doesnt matter cause unless a storm does something completey opposite of NHC'S track as each day goes by they get better info. so by the time LANDFALL comes they are pretty close to the last track! so its really a fail safe solution! look back and find how many 4+ day forecast have hit where they are forecasted!
To give us something to debate??? lol It really doesnt matter cause unless a storm does something completey opposite of NHC'S track as each day goes by they get better info. so by the time LANDFALL comes they are pretty close to the last track! so its really a fail safe solution! look back and find how many 4+ day forecast have hit where they are forecasted!
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It's my understanding that the five-day forecast is relatively new. I believe the old three-day forecast was more reasonable simply because it didn't cause nearly as much potentially unfounded anticipation. Also, as with the discussion after Charley, the LINE ought to be removed from the cone - certainly on the 5-day graphic.
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Betsy '65, Camille '69, Frederic '79, Elena '85, Georges '98, Isidore '02, Katrina '05, Isaac '12, Nate '17
I agree with all of you. I just think that the average person gets mislead by the line and does not understand the meaning of the potential error. They think the line has a better chace than the edge of the cone and from their averages the edge of the current cone has the same chance as the line. This is misleading. I also agree that the NHC has done very well this year with the actual final locations of the tracks but not so well with the timing leading to larger error averages and not so much different final destinations. I think that the public had alot less stress with the 3 day forecast. If you look back two weeks FLorida has been in the Cone the whole time and this adds an overwhelming amount of stress to peoples lives. Again I if anyone am a big fan of the NHC and really only listen to their forecasts and know what the cone means. THe general public does not.
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rjgator wrote:They think the line has a better chace than the edge of the cone and from their averages the edge of the current cone has the same chance as the line. This is misleading.
The line DOES have a better chance of being hit than the edges of the cone, based on current info... that's the whole point. But "a better chance" doesn't mean "the only chance" -- the cone outlines the realm of other reasonable chances of being hit... and unless one is a fool, one does not take being in the outer reaches of the cone as an "all clear."
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KeyLargoDave
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My 2 cents.
It's the first year for the 5-day track. I'm not sure I like it either, even though I'm always seeking more information. I also have worked with graphics and information for many years, so the whole question of representing tracks -- and possible future tracks -- graphically is very interesting to me.
Right now, I'm thinking whether it would be better to have a five-day cone but no line down the center after three days, just as a real visual indication of the greater uncertainty.
It's the first year for the 5-day track. I'm not sure I like it either, even though I'm always seeking more information. I also have worked with graphics and information for many years, so the whole question of representing tracks -- and possible future tracks -- graphically is very interesting to me.
Right now, I'm thinking whether it would be better to have a five-day cone but no line down the center after three days, just as a real visual indication of the greater uncertainty.
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