Next forecast track likely to shift east

[LeeJet]

As one can see with this radar:

http://www.datasync.com/~magee/weather/ivanc.gif

...the Hurricane is moving NW, and has so for a few hours now. Assuming the hurricane doesn't go due West, it seems Ivan will hit E. Jamaica which will make the actual track shift about 50 miles east, thus making the new target zone S. Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2038W5.gif

Note how the official track takes it across W. Jamaica.

[feederband]

Noticed that too. Just did not know if I wanted to bring it up.

[greeng13]

TWC just mentioned the eye moving more north on the last loop? any thoughts?

[calidoug]

Yes, although there was just a W jog at 2115Z, I think the storm is going to cut across the middle--

In at Kingston, out at Ocho Rios, which will put it a bit to the right of the NHC track.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Is it possible for it to go into the atlantic, at this point??

[AlexiBlue]

Please don't forget, as stated in the thread at the top of the board, to only post links to graphics - not the graphics themselves. Takes too much bandwidth.

[yoda]

Is it possible for it to go into the atlantic, at this point??

As in come out after going through FL? YES
As in going into the Atlantic w/o hitting FL? NO

[PTrackerLA]

Well you might have jumped the gun on this call. There has just been a major wobble back to the west.

[chris_fit]

Track will not change, imo, until it gets to the Gulf, if at all.


20 miles east or west is not a track change 72 hours out, again... imho

Although 20 miles on the florida west coast could be the difference between ft myers, tampa, ceder key area.

[calidoug]

AlexiBlue, please don't forget that that information is not true.

It makes no difference whether you just post a link or use the "img" tags around it.

To bandwidth or database usage.

[huricanwatcher]

looks like Ivan is going to the east side of Jamaica, whats up with that model above?.......

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Is it possible for it to go into the atlantic, at this point??

As in come out after going through FL? YES
As in going into the Atlantic w/o hitting FL? NO

i mean nipping fl. on the s. east side then going up??

[LeeJet]

Well you might have jumped the gun on this call. There has just been a major wobble back to the west.

Not really.

[x-y-no]

I'm not convinced yet that this is more than an increase in the amplitude of the wobbles. We had a pretty big wobble west earlier today, and after the long northerly wobble you mention he's now wobbling west again. We'll have to watch a while longer to see if this is a trend.

One must also consider that we may soon see something of the frictional effect mentioned in orther threads - which may cause a cyclonic path around the mountains.

Even if we see a pronounced jog to the north as he approaches Jamaica, I don't think we can assume this will last afer he leaves Jamaica behind.

[AlexiBlue]

Yes calidoug it does. Every time the page containing the graphic has to refresh for a new person to view the post, the refresh of the graphic takes up additional bandwidth - quite a bit more than just refreshing a link. I build web sites okay, I'm not just being a jerk here. This forum goes down constantly and people need the information here. Everyone just doing their little part helps.

[calidoug]

No, Alexi, it does NOT.

You may build web sites, but you are wrong on this. Do you know how to read HTML?

Then "view source", and note that either way, only the link address comes from storm2K.

The local user's web browser hits the (NHC in this case) other server to pull in the graphic data.

[x-y-no]

Yes calidoug it does. Every time the page containing the graphic has to refresh for a new person to view the post, the refresh of the graphic takes up additional bandwidth - quite a bit more than just refreshing a link. I build web sites okay, I'm not just being a jerk here. This forum goes down constantly and people need the information here. Everyone just doing their little part helps.

Ummm .. not that it's really worth arguing about, but that isn't true. All the server does is serve up the html, including link or image tag as the case may be. The browser interprets an image tag and issues a request for whatever the source is. If that source is on another server, there is no additional request to and therefore no additional load on the storm2k server.

[huricanwatcher]

Alexi... your building pages which probably contain your own html builds and are housed on your server.. thus they take up band width, linking as they are doing here is actually a crime, intruding on another sites band width by forcing the load to come off their server.. why do you think some sites wont allow you to view source and copy it.

[wxman57]

I believe we're witnessing a wobble as the heavier convection twists all around the eye. Still looks like Ivan will graze southern Jamaica.

[Downdraft]

Bottom line whether you agree or disagree Chad said don't post them so don't. The admin's and the mod's are working overtime to keep this up and running till we get a break in the weather and they can take it down and fix it. Let's help them all we can and do what they ask. Now is not the time for this board to crash.