Floydbuster's 7th Ivan forecast....

[Anonymous]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast # 7
Friday September 10, 2004 12pm
Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO

Today is the peak of hurricane season. Tomorrow is the third year since September 11th. And the DAY AFTER TOMORROW is Hurricane Ivan.

I have made my own HURRICANE IVAN WEBSITE. CHECK IT OUT: http://www.freewebs.com/ivanthehurricane/

Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph and a pressure of 934 mb. It will hit Jamaica in some way shape or form, as well as the United States... so be prepared. As for Cuba, I hope Castro is thinking and not just sitting back smoking a fine Cuban cigar.

The movement is general west-northwest. I expect a track almost and then due north in 48-72 hours. I also expect a landfall in that timeframe as well. The model I am in most agreement with is the GFS model:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I am also in agreement with the UKMET model:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

The intensity is not all that hard to get together as the NHC points out. Hurricane Ivan appears to be completing an eyewall replacement cycle, therefore I expect strengthening up until landfall in Jamaica in 12 hrs or so. Fluctuations and ERC's can be expected, and Ivan could be a category 5 hurricane by the time it hits Cuba. However, I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE, and keep it as a very, very strong category 4 up into the Cuba coast. After that, I expect little/no weakening over Cuba, and I DO EXPECT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE at landfall in Southwest Florida. If it enters a rapid intensification cycle in the Charley box, my intensity forecast would potentally be GREATLY INCREASED.

NOTE: I still think Ivan will be atleast 110 kt when he hits the US Coast.

12 HRS-- 18.0N-- 77.8 W-- 130 kt (OVER JAMAICA)
24 HRS-- 19.0N-- 80.0 W-- 130 kt
36 HRS-- 21.0N-- 82.4 W-- 135 kt
48 HRS-- 24.4N-- 82.5 W-- 130 kt
72 HRS-- 26.2N-- 82.5 W-- 125 kt (INLAND)
96 HRS-- 28.6N-- 82.4 W-- 90 kt (INLAND)
120 HRS- 31.0N-- 82.6 W-- 60 kt (INLAND)

NO IMAGES, SO CLICK THAT FOR MY TRACK:
http://www.freewebs.com/ivanthehurricane/ivan%205.JPG

[Stormtrack03]

I agree with your forecast, the Carolinas and the EC need to watch this very carefully after Ivan hits Florida.

[CaptinCrunch]

Most EXCELLENT

[Skywatch_NC]

Another round of severe flooding potential for the Appalachians later next week!

Eric

[Nolezfan]

Man....this thing has me right in its cross-hairs.....

[Anonymous]

I actually like that http://www.freewebs.com/ivanthehurricane site.

[CaluWxBill]

good forecast, seem a little wide with the track, through the Cayman, and seeming through that same neck that Charley went through. However you do continue the N propagation of Ivan rather than turn it, plus FL landfall seems pretty good.

[x-y-no]

Can you explain why you move him so fast? For example, between 24 and 36 hours, you've got him moving 181 nautical miles, or at over 15 knots.

I just don't see that happening unless the ridge were way stronger than appears likely.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]