I can't stand forecasters...

[LowMug]

These guys know nothing at all...I can look on the internet and see a 2-dimensional water vapor loop and guarantee a ridge is going to do this and that...

So I say to all... why if we can do this so easily do they have to go through this...

http://www.uwm.edu/~kahl/240/syllabus.html

in there sophomore year...and it is only one class

[chris_fit]

what are you talking about?

[yoda]

Yes... what are you talking about LowMug?

[mf_dolphin]

I think that was sarcasm toward the non-professionals.....

[LowMug]

I think that was sarcasm toward the non-professionals.....

You are right but to only those who so often question the professionals to no avail...I promise to be nice...I like this place

[SouthernWx]

These guys know nothing at all...I can look on the internet and see a 2-dimensional water vapor loop and guarantee a ridge is going to do this and that...

So I say to all... why if we can do this so easily do they have to go through this...

http://www.uwm.edu/~kahl/240/syllabus.html

in there sophomore year...and it is only one class

I'm not really sure how to take your post....

I may be a "non-professional" meteorologist, but friend....I know as much or more than many professionals. It like I discussed with my grandmother's home health nurse today....she was amazed at my knowledge regarding hurricane Ivan, and why it was so intense...and likely to intensify more. If you do something....anything for a long time, and put your heart and soul into it, you tend to become very good at it, be it forecasting weather, woodworking, or playing the piano.

I'm almost 43 years old...and began studying the weather; especially severe storms and tropical cyclones when I was 12....a sixth grader who spent his spare time not playing sports or goofing off, but instead in libraries and the local NWS office, trying to learn everything I could...about storms, and the weather patterns that spawned them.

When you check out my forecast tonight regarding hurricane Ivan....that isn't just something I threw together in 15 minutes. It took me two hours to analyze the latest model guidance, add in my knowledge of hurricane climatology, and just as importantly...add my years of experience and common sense....before posting it on my website. I mowed two lawns this afternoon (with a push mower) and was totally spent...but after dinner, made the effort to post a forecast analysis and track that was as accurate as possible...I gave a 100% effort.

Why? I have no degree...will never likely ever work as a pro. I won't make a dime whether my forecasts are as accurate as Jack Beven's or not. Why do I do it? Why bother??
One reason....I'm trying to help others; those folks who are under the gun and in harms way...give an unbiased and logical analysis of the current storm, where it will go how severe it may become, and why....maybe give them a little extra lead time to prepare. I've been a Skywarn spotter for over 22 years, so my primary goal in posting a hurricane forecast is the same as when I call in a severe wx report to the Peachtree City, Georgia WSFO: saving lives. You may notice, I don't post forecasts for each and every named Atlantic basin storm...not even every hurricane. I only post a forecast analysis for hurricanes I believe will be intense and have a major impact on the U.S.

I also usually post my analysis and forecast on this site only...and the reason why? I know there are far more coastal residents needing a "heads up" on this board regarding hurricane Ivan than a professional forecasting board such as Wright-Weather.com. I'm only trying to help folks....that's the only reason I post a forecast...it's that simple.

How good is this non-professional?
Well, I'm not perfect....but my first forecast analysis on Frances had a 168 hour position of 25.5 n/ 77.0 w....the hurricane passed within 15 miles of that location.
What was my first 144 hour forecast position for hurricane Ivan? 25.0 n/ 82.0 w. What about 168 hours? 26.5 n/ 84.0w. Not bad for someone who never went to college....but I possess something far more important than a met degree....a lifelong passion to learn about tornadoes and hurricanes.

Just something to think about my friend...

Have a great day tomorrow..

PW