accuweather... or more accurately accublunder.. they criticise everyone. nwo their saying how they had the right track the whole time. heres link:
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin ... .asp?iws=5
this makes me mad....
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al79philly
- Tropical Storm
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quickychick
I really dislike Accuweather. They act like the outcast who is trying to fit in with the cool kids...unnecessary if you've got the stuff to back it up. Apparently they don't.
This:
...is just third-graderish.
This:
During the day Thursday, NHC pulled their path back to the west, and as of early Thursday evening, their path nearly matches that of the hurricane experts at AccuWeather.com
...is just third-graderish.
Last edited by quickychick on Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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WeatherEmperor
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Hurrilurker
- Category 2
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Can you do better? Accuweather is hits and misses. They've been better on Ivan than the NHC BY FAR (at least Bastardi has because he's the only one I follow over there, and it ain't on the free site).
Sometimes certain models are better than others. Sometimes certain information sources are better than others. That's just the way it is. If you're going to dog them - e.g. "crybabies", put out something better. It's too easy to criticize if you don't have anything nice to say when you'd come off a little better than second gradish if you didn't say anything at all.
Love,
Me
Sometimes certain models are better than others. Sometimes certain information sources are better than others. That's just the way it is. If you're going to dog them - e.g. "crybabies", put out something better. It's too easy to criticize if you don't have anything nice to say when you'd come off a little better than second gradish if you didn't say anything at all.
Love,
Me
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Tri-State_1925
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quickychick
Steve wrote:Can you do better? Accuweather is hits and misses. They've been better on Ivan than the NHC BY FAR (at least Bastardi has because he's the only one I follow over there, and it ain't on the free site).
Sometimes certain models are better than others. Sometimes certain information sources are better than others. That's just the way it is. If you're going to dog them - e.g. "crybabies", put out something better. It's too easy to criticize if you don't have anything nice to say when you'd come off a little better than second gradish if you didn't say anything at all.
Love,
Me :)
Ah well, I know I can't do better so I don't throw forecasts out and then prance around when I think I'm right :)
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WeatherEmperor
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quickychick wrote:Steve wrote:Can you do better? Accuweather is hits and misses. They've been better on Ivan than the NHC BY FAR (at least Bastardi has because he's the only one I follow over there, and it ain't on the free site).
Sometimes certain models are better than others. Sometimes certain information sources are better than others. That's just the way it is. If you're going to dog them - e.g. "crybabies", put out something better. It's too easy to criticize if you don't have anything nice to say when you'd come off a little better than second gradish if you didn't say anything at all.
Love,
Me
Ah well, I know I can't do better so I don't throw forecasts out and then prance around when I think I'm right
Good point quickychick.
<RICKY>
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ilmc172pilot
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quickychick
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Doc Seminole
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Doc Seminole
I don't think accuweather is all that great. If it wasn't for the pro site during hurricane season, I probably wouldn't go over there at all. They're not in any of my bookmarks and never will be. They often suck. But don't attack me for pointing out the obvious. I just happened across the thread thinking that there was some real beef out there about something. I didn't find it. What I do find funny is that people are dogging the site based on their 2 paragraph tropical report on a storm. I could get better from MWatkins, Airforce Met, DT, Derek Ortt or half a dozen other gurus here on this very site.
As for the claim that Bastardi said he "nailed" Frances on Fox, I'd have to see a quote in its context rather than a second hand simplistic blurb. He did note that he was good with a couple of aspects - the stall and weakening at landfall aspects. And yeah, he was (as usual) way ahead of the game in those calls. The best call he had was that it would most likely hit the US when it was still a wave in its infancy near the Cape Verde Islands. He also made that call with Ivan despite its development in areas that usually favor recurvature of strong storms. But he also stubbornly held onto a NC landfall for Frances long after it was obvious that he was wrong. In the end, he was 180 miles to the east from a week out. TPC was about 200 miles off of their Ivan track from a couple of days ago. It's not where it was supposed to be, and many rank amateurs such as myself could have told you (and actually have done so on various forums) that their Ivan tracks have been all wet and in constant need of modification long before he ever got into the Caribbean.
>>Ah well, I know I can't do better so I don't throw forecasts out and then prance around when I think I'm right
Nor do I. I accept fault when I am wrong and try to be humble when I am right. That's good manners. Apparently they lack them in that respect.
>>wow steve, why don't you go make out with bastardi.
Whatever dude. I don't know you. I built my reputation on solid posts. I'm not going to break the terms of service and get in a flame war with you. Kissing Bastardi (or his ass) is about the farthest thing from my mind. See I operate differently than you do. I posted a very thread on this very forum this very day pitting my forecast vs. Bastardi's vs. TPC's. Bastardi was MUCH CLOSER to what will happen than was the TPC at that point. But I liked my ideas better. I might be wrong, I might be right. But I didn't call him a dummy or say he was stupid. Nor did I do that about the TPC. I just went with what I wanted to say without a bunch of 10 year old name calling. Trust me, I can call names with the best of them but it demeans the hard work that the mods and administrators do on this site and the service they provide for each and every one of us.
>>well....at this point everyone is clueless, from the NHC to accuweather to all of us....only God knows where ivan will go
Excellent point Pilot. Bastardi today I think said the very same thing. He wasn't (and that doesn't speak for Accuweather in general) bashing the NHC just to do it. He was stating where they were wrong. And they were in that case. He also said that he feels they often give the impression that they own the weather or that they are the only viable source for tropical systems when in fact, "the good Lord" is the one who owns the weather. For people who take either Bastardi or the TPC as adversaries or too literally, they're going to run into a problem with almost any storm. It is because of sites like this one that we get exposed to professionals outside of the "official line", TWC or our local TV Mets towing the "official line" because of guys like Ortt who are willing to put their own asses on the line for us.
So I don't want to get into a pissing match with anyone. But back up what you say with legitimate points and they can be argued (if necessary) with legitimate responses.
Steve
As for the claim that Bastardi said he "nailed" Frances on Fox, I'd have to see a quote in its context rather than a second hand simplistic blurb. He did note that he was good with a couple of aspects - the stall and weakening at landfall aspects. And yeah, he was (as usual) way ahead of the game in those calls. The best call he had was that it would most likely hit the US when it was still a wave in its infancy near the Cape Verde Islands. He also made that call with Ivan despite its development in areas that usually favor recurvature of strong storms. But he also stubbornly held onto a NC landfall for Frances long after it was obvious that he was wrong. In the end, he was 180 miles to the east from a week out. TPC was about 200 miles off of their Ivan track from a couple of days ago. It's not where it was supposed to be, and many rank amateurs such as myself could have told you (and actually have done so on various forums) that their Ivan tracks have been all wet and in constant need of modification long before he ever got into the Caribbean.
>>Ah well, I know I can't do better so I don't throw forecasts out and then prance around when I think I'm right
Nor do I. I accept fault when I am wrong and try to be humble when I am right. That's good manners. Apparently they lack them in that respect.
>>wow steve, why don't you go make out with bastardi.
Whatever dude. I don't know you. I built my reputation on solid posts. I'm not going to break the terms of service and get in a flame war with you. Kissing Bastardi (or his ass) is about the farthest thing from my mind. See I operate differently than you do. I posted a very thread on this very forum this very day pitting my forecast vs. Bastardi's vs. TPC's. Bastardi was MUCH CLOSER to what will happen than was the TPC at that point. But I liked my ideas better. I might be wrong, I might be right. But I didn't call him a dummy or say he was stupid. Nor did I do that about the TPC. I just went with what I wanted to say without a bunch of 10 year old name calling. Trust me, I can call names with the best of them but it demeans the hard work that the mods and administrators do on this site and the service they provide for each and every one of us.
>>well....at this point everyone is clueless, from the NHC to accuweather to all of us....only God knows where ivan will go
Excellent point Pilot. Bastardi today I think said the very same thing. He wasn't (and that doesn't speak for Accuweather in general) bashing the NHC just to do it. He was stating where they were wrong. And they were in that case. He also said that he feels they often give the impression that they own the weather or that they are the only viable source for tropical systems when in fact, "the good Lord" is the one who owns the weather. For people who take either Bastardi or the TPC as adversaries or too literally, they're going to run into a problem with almost any storm. It is because of sites like this one that we get exposed to professionals outside of the "official line", TWC or our local TV Mets towing the "official line" because of guys like Ortt who are willing to put their own asses on the line for us.
So I don't want to get into a pissing match with anyone. But back up what you say with legitimate points and they can be argued (if necessary) with legitimate responses.
Steve
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Re: this makes me mad....
nikolai wrote:accuweather... or more accurately accublunder.. they criticise everyone. nwo their saying how they had the right track the whole time. heres link:
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin ... .asp?iws=5
Umm...I already posted an extensive analysis of it on "another weather board." with graphics...(are they disabled here now? I presume so.)
Bottom line, AccuWeather is DELIBERATELY LYING. The Accuweather forecast track from 11:34 AM Wednesday is essentially IDENTICAL to the 11AM NHC track on Wednesday; the NHC track is an imperceptable HAIR east of the Accuweather track (which based on their time stamp likely came out AFTER the NHC track) but that just makes the NHC track from yesterday morning closer to today's Accuweather forecast track than Accuweather's OWN track from yesterday morning was.
NHC has ALWAYS had the storm entering the GOM. EVERY Wednesday NHC track had Ivan hitting or threatening Western Florida.
If anything, Accuweather's tracks have been following NHC's tracks around, not vice versa..
The implication that NHC has had their tracks wildly flopping around till they finally centered on the track of the wise sages at Accuweather is, a flat, out and out, indisputable lie.
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Derecho,
Since you usually don't respond when you're proven wrong, it would seem that you are manufacturing statistics to prove a point. The 5am AST archived at TPC never brings the storm farther west than 82.5. That's a south FL hit from the South. In a sense, it catches a minute or two of Gulf in the Keys, but that's it. I didn't see them using the 11 position as their point of reference. That's something you threw in. However, I also think their claim is bogus. They play it both ways. They'll reference something Bastardi said without saying that it wasn't necessarily the company's position. It's also not in the free public domain.
So I think they are about as right as you are in this instance - dubious at best. Bastardi has been consistently south and west of the TPC. And again, he's the only thing I use accuweather for.
Steve
Since you usually don't respond when you're proven wrong, it would seem that you are manufacturing statistics to prove a point. The 5am AST archived at TPC never brings the storm farther west than 82.5. That's a south FL hit from the South. In a sense, it catches a minute or two of Gulf in the Keys, but that's it. I didn't see them using the 11 position as their point of reference. That's something you threw in. However, I also think their claim is bogus. They play it both ways. They'll reference something Bastardi said without saying that it wasn't necessarily the company's position. It's also not in the free public domain.
So I think they are about as right as you are in this instance - dubious at best. Bastardi has been consistently south and west of the TPC. And again, he's the only thing I use accuweather for.
Steve
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otowntiger
- Category 5
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Steve wrote:Can you do better? Accuweather is hits and misses. They've been better on Ivan than the NHC BY FAR (at least Bastardi has because he's the only one I follow over there, and it ain't on the free site).
Sometimes certain models are better than others. Sometimes certain information sources are better than others. That's just the way it is. If you're going to dog them - e.g. "crybabies", put out something better. It's too easy to criticize if you don't have anything nice to say when you'd come off a little better than second gradish if you didn't say anything at all.
Love,
Me
What do you mean they have been better than the NHC by far???? Other than the intensity, which nobody knows, they have completely nailed the track so far. He has moved exactly as they said he would from day 1.
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