this makes sense

[jude]

Now, I am no met. and I don't even play one on tv but this guy makes sesne to me.

Any opinions?


http://www.wxrisk.com/home.html

http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurrica ... m#ANALYSIS

[quote]
As I assumed most of us are now well aware... overnight IVAN quickly became a category 5 hurricane.... (and has been since 10PM last night according to the IR) Since 11z Wednesday morning to the last recon 1010z this morning the pressure fell from 955 millibars to 916... in a 24-hour timeframe. And as I am sure you are also well aware that they actually reported a gust to 216 MPH about 600 feet above the ocean surface.

In my opinion there have been several important changes overnight which now strongly tell me that IVAN will make lasnfall in western FL. Ivan IS going to turn to the Northwest THEN North passing across the western side of Cuba and making landfall in western Florida somewhere between the Everglades in Appalachicola.... And if I had to pick a point it would be somewhere between TAMPA BAY and Fort Myers. This is rapidly becoming as easy a forecast in terms of the synoptic pattern as Frances was.

One of the big debates which occurs in meteorological community is the comparisons between the European weather model and the GFS. The statistics clearly prove that the European weather model is the best weather model in the world. All one has to do is go to this link to show it conclusively. However there are many folks within the meteorological community which argue that the GFS has the undeserved reputation for coming up with all sorts of weird solutions and flip-flops from one model run to another because the run the model is run four times times a day whereas the European model is now only run twice a day ....and up until a few months ago it was run only once a day. Therefore when you have a model one four vs 1 time a day... you are naturally going to see more wild and flip-flopping model solutions.

In a word that argument is HPC inspired Bullshit. If that argument had any validity at all we would see at some point a change in the operational GFS runs over the last twenty-four hours. Instead we continue see the GFS come up with meteorologiclly absurd solutions of taking IVAN across eastern Cuba near the one or passageS and then 300+ MILES east of Florida into the Bahamas and well out to sea. The operational GFS has been coming up with a solution now since the 00z wed run --- which is now 5 consecutive runs of this crap.

Moreover because the GFS is such a dominate model all of the hurricane model guidance is run off the GFS "grid" or background... the hurricane models such as the GFDL and the BAMs are deeply corrupted by this essentially broken weather model. All the recent runs has featured the BAMs and the GFDL with huge shifts strongly to the right with some of them actually taking IVAN just east of Miami than out to sea! The argument has been made that if we get a really good sampling around the hurricane in these new advance the Gulfstream recon planes and put that data into the model you would get a better solution and a better forecast track.

Again that argument is BS. Like I said yesterday this may help in the forecast over a 24 hour period. But once you go beyond 36 hours hurricane movement is not determined by weather a ridge is 20 meters to strong on the eastern side of a hrricane when compared to some model depiction. Hurricanes move because of the synoptic patterns and features be it Ridges Trough ULLs or what have you. It's just that simple. The GFS is the only global model in existence today which goes through a MODEL truncation twice in its daily run out of 16 days which results IN the model having three different resolutions! ONLY the GFS. From 0 to 84 hrs the model resolution is 55 KM from 90 to 180 it is 77 KM and from 180 to 384 hrs it is 108 KM. HPC would be much better served by running the operational GFS only twice a day at the same resolution all the way to 16 days.

Ivan is now clearly doing at least 295 degrees in the last several hours and is gaining latitude. Yes IVAN passed the 70 degree well south of the 70 de gres w and 15 N Lat benchmark which I set up two days ago .... coming across at 14 North. This is a full degree south of where most of the hurricane models and the European had placed IVAN.... ( the general forecast has been 15n and 70 w). However the overall principle is the same and this is now the fourth run in a row of the ECMWF showing the turn to the North with a track across the western third of Cuba and into southern Florida and then bisecting the state.... Moving out to sea again near Daytona... then making landfall near Myrtle Beach SC or Wilmington NC.

More and more of the hurricane models are showing a much more reasonable turn even if one allows for Ivan passing just south of Jamaica. Clearly all the hurricane models for the last couple days had been showing the turn too sharp and too fast given considerable size of Ivan. But I have never doubted the turn is coming and and the shift of the most western model -- the 00z THURS CMC -- into the eastern Gulf is a significant factor. Given the fact that Ivan may passed the just south of Jamaica but the data much stronger regarding h the turn occurring and showing a much more reasonable turn at that.... I end up with a solution which is close to the NHC tracl but a BIT --100 miles ?- further to the west.

Given that this weekend is a 911 anniversary weekend... and we are facing is massive hurricane which is going to wipe Jamaica flat as well as a large portion of Cuba and then move to north int Western Florida.. If I was writing the forecast in southern Florida I would be a typing and crying.. If I could pass along one piece of information to those located in southwest Florida it would be to flee. RUN... sprint. GET OUT...

There is little doubt in my mind hurricane Ivan is not going to be a category five hurricane at landfall in southwest Florida.... His passage over Jamaica and western Cuba will take care of that! But given how badly the state has been battered from Charlie and Frances the recovery here from Ivan even as a category three hurricane is going to the extremely slow and prolonged.

The next key point is what happens once Ivan makes his turn north. The key point I want to emphasize in this forecast is that once s Ivan has turn north and is moving up the 81 W deg. longitude line.... or 83 W degree longitude line .... There is little doubt that Ivan will stay due north and will NOT turn sharply to the right like Charley did.

Let me repeat that.... Synoptically there is little chance of IVAN once he is turned to North to then turn sharply to the Northeast like hurricane Charley did in early August. If you are not a meteorologist then you have to understand that what turned Charley sharply to the right was a immense historic trough or dip in the jetstream which had existed in early August across the entire Midwest and plunged as far south as the Northern Gulf Coast. That trough was an extreme and one which had never be seen before in early August.

THAT It is why that trough turned Charley sharply to the Northeast and made landfall south of Tampa Bay.

This time around the synoptic pattern is very similar to what we saw with FRANCES... NOT CHARLEY. tHE KEY is a massive trough that is going to crash into the West Coast of US and Canada this weekend as hurricane Ivan begins to make his turn across Jamaica and heads towards western or central Cuba. A deep trough in the Jet stream over the western US and Canada means there HAS to be an equally strong ridge over the eastern US and western atlantic ocean. This is not a case of the forecast was something that COULD occur or something that MIGHT occur ... this is something that is basic to the laws of physics and a fundamental law of meteorology.

With the development of the key trough over the western U.S. the ridge over equal power and magntide will build in fromt the western Atlantic Ocean rapidly late this weekend and early next week. Once Ivan has made his turn north.... Whatever the longitude line is... be it 81 deg. longitude 83 degrees less longitude or 85 degrees less longitude.... Once is made that time he will follow that Longitude straight North until at least 35 or 40 degrees N latitude. In other words there will not be a sharp turn to the Northeast as we saw with hurricane Charley.... Along the West Coast Florida.[/quote]