Landfall potential in the US coastline will be high in 2003

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cycloneye
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Landfall potential in the US coastline will be high in 2003

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 13, 2003 8:11 pm

http://www.wxresearch.org/press/hur2003.htm

According to this group that for the first time I see doing outlooks for the hurricane season.What are your opinions about this forecast of landfalls for the US coastline?

I dont see any of the factors analized there so I dont know on what they base their outlook. :?: :roll:
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#2 Postby Kevin_Wx » Sun Apr 13, 2003 8:48 pm

Well, that group has been doing forecasts for hurricane season for about 15 years now. For one, they usually underpredict activity. Secondly, I'm not so sure how a sunspot (based model) can influence US landfall activity. Seems suspect to me.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 13, 2003 9:08 pm

I found this on another site and I found it interesting to share it here to see what all here think about it.[quote]

Secondly,I'm not sure how a sunspot (based model) can influence US landfall activity.Seems suspect to me.
[quote]

I agree with those words Kevin because they dont have anymore tool that we can see that they analize other than that.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Apr 13, 2003 9:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby Anonymous » Sun Apr 13, 2003 9:12 pm

They should try to use several seasonal factors instead of one, which probably hasn't even been proven to influence landfall numbers.
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#5 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Apr 14, 2003 12:56 am

I remember hearing that Hurricane Alicia in 1983 developed rapidly from a mesoscale complex (MCS) and made landfall along the Texas coast after staying in the western Gulf of Mexico longer than usual.
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#6 Postby chadtm80 » Mon Apr 14, 2003 8:23 am

We shall see in about 46 days :wink:
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#7 Postby isobar » Mon Apr 14, 2003 8:55 am

I tried accessing their link to check out their past predictions, but couldn't open the page. Does anyone know their track record?
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#8 Postby Steve » Mon Apr 14, 2003 9:51 am

If that is the organization out of Houston, they had a string of years (97-98-99?) where their highest landfall prediction area had storm impact. The name sounds similar, so it probably is them. I haven't read the link yet, but if it is them, they have a reasonable track record.

Steve
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 14, 2003 11:46 am

Isobar here is the link that I found about them and it looks like they are well documented but they dont relie on all the factors to do their outlooks.

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/

Well in 2001 15 systems formed and they said that 9 was going to be the max of systems.
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#10 Postby isobar » Mon Apr 14, 2003 12:13 pm

Thanks, Cyc! That link worked.
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